We are a month or so into the flat season in the UK and on what is a high profile day of racing across the world on Saturday, the earlier attention will be on Newmarket when the opening classic of the campaign is run.
That is the 2000 Guineas, which is a little later in the day than usual due to the Coronation earlier on Saturday. 14 will go to post and a deep look through the form of the race has thrown up one bet for us in it.
4.40 Newmarket
Preview
The first classic of the season is the 2000 Guineas, a race for the boys, run over the straight mile on the Rowley course at Newmarket. There’s a field of 14 this year and I feel the prize could be going back to Ballydoyle with Aiden O’Brien saddling what appears to be a very solid 1-2 in the market. Augustus Rodin is being talked up for the triple crown and is the choice of Ryan Moore. He’s a proven stayer and although he looks more of a Derby type, his odds of under 6/4 reflect his chance. That said, I’m more in the camp of Little Big Bear who has won his last 4 including the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes on his most recent start. The question is whether he’ll get the step up to a mile and that’s a question we can throw at both Sakheer and Noble Style too. None of these 3 have ever gone beyond 6 furlongs. Chaldean has drifted to a decent price after the Dewhurst winner fluffed his lines in the Greenham unshipping Dettori exiting the stalls but had looked very useful indeed previously. Royal Scotsman, based on his head 2nd in the Dewhurst, must have each way claims but his form otherwise is a bit in and out, and I’d be worried backing any horse from the Cole yard who haven’t had a winner for over 6 months. Silver Knott is tough and a guaranteed stayer but is a bit exposed and needs the rain to stay away.
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Betting
Holloway Boy – Almost by process of elimination, I’ve landed at the door of Holloway Boy. He was a shock winner of the Chesham at Royal Ascot where he won on debut and since then has failed to get his head in front but has shown more than enough to suggest he could go well today. He’s twice run well at Newmarket which is a positive and is a guaranteed stayer which is a positive many of his rivals don’t have. In his most recent start, he was 3rd to Augustus Rodin in the Group 1 Futurity but he ran miles better than it appears on paper. He was absolutely cruising and looked all over the winner but drifted markedly right at the 2 furlong pole, going all the way across the track. By the time he was straightened up, it was too late and he’d lost too much ground but despite finishing 5 lengths behind the winner, he was still 4 lengths clear of 4th. He goes on any ground, has the assistance of a top class jockey and is from a yard beginning to hit form. Drifting to the right might be a slight advantage too as it’ll take him closer to the market principles so, given the stamina, track and form positives as well as the chinks in the armour of many of his rivals, he’s the each way for me.
Tips
Back Holloway Boy (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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