The final regular event of the European Tour season takes place this week and it does so at one of the best venues the Tour accommodates when the Andalucia Valderrama Masters returns to the schedule.
Those who have not make it into the top 100 in the Race to Dubai rankings or the extra lists that ensure a tour card is retained have one last chance to do so while at the other end of the scale players fighting it out for bigger honours have a grand stage to showcase their skills.
After the recent scoring shootouts we will go full circle this week with low scores at a premium around a tough course. We should be set for a brilliant tournament, worthy of the host Sergio Garcia.
Recent Winners
2011 – Sergio Garcia
2010 – Graeme McDowell
The Course
Real Club Valderrama hosts the tournament. It held the Open de Espana last year when Andrew Johnston won. This is a top class course with no hidden traits to it. You have to hit the ball well from tee to green on a treelined track which is full of undulations from fairways to the greens.
The course is a par 71 which measures 6,991 yards so length is not going to be a factor this week. Accuracy is of paramount importance while those who can scramble are of interest given the small greens that the tournament will encounter. One over won the tournament held here last season and the scoring is not expected to be much lower this time around.
The Field
Sergio Garcia hosting the tournament and playing in it has ensured a decent field although most players worth their salt like to try their hand around a testing course such as this even allowing for four massive events which follow this one.
Jon Rahm tees it up looking for the sort of prize that will bump him closer to Tommy Fleetwood in the Race to Dubai rankings. Martin Kaymer, Padraig Harrington and Danny Willett bring a major flavour to the field with the likes of Shane Lowry, Soren Kjeldsen, Joost Luiten and Andrew Johnston add to the quality of the event.
Market Leaders
We have joint 11/2 favourites this week and they are the home duo of Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm. Garcia has an incredible record around here. He has only been outside the top 10 once in his last nine treks around this track and he would rate a massive chance if it were not for the fact he hosts the event which will take up plenty of his time. Jon Rahm is a top class player but he prefers power over accuracy which may not ideal.
Shane Lowry is next in the betting at 16/1. The way he hits the golf ball this should be an ideal test for him but you have to go back to the US Open last year for his last top five finish on the European Tour and the British Masters two whole years ago for his last top five on European soil. I’m not convinced I want to be taking 16/1 with that in mind.
Soren Kjeldsen has a decent record around here having won here in 2008 and posted three other top five finishes around that. That is no surprise of course. He is a relentlessly straight hitter of the golf ball and this is a perfect track for him but he hasn’t played since the Made in Denmark almost two months ago so he could be rusty and this is not the track for a rusty golfer.
Martin Kaymer is a major winner and tough tests often bring out the best in the top players. If that happens here then 20/1 could be a massive price on him. That said he has not looked the same player since he blew the tournament in Abu Dhabi in 2015 so I can’t get involved at that price. It is 22/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets this week. Both hit a huge number of fairways and greens and have either good course form or are in good touch in recent times. The first of those is Joost Luiten. He has had three spins around this track and he has two top five finishes. He showed in Portugal recently that he is hitting it well and he has all the form required in tracks like Morocco and even Wentworth. He ranks in the top 25 of fairways hit and top 15 for greens in regulation which should have him right in the mix this week.
Gregory Bourdy is another tee to green animal. He didn’t have the best beginning to the season but he ran hot at the Alfred Dunhill Links and then finished last week with a 65 so he is hitting the ball much better now. With a staple diet of fairways and greens Bourdy should be able to get himself in the mix and we’ve seen in events like the Wales Open and with wins in Mallorca and Portugal that he can get it done when in contention. He feels a big price here.
Outsiders
I’m going to roll the dice with three at bigger prices this week. The first of those is Aaron Rai who has been lighting up the Challenge Tour this year with three wins, one of which came in Spain. He is another accurate animal and that tee to green prowess should see him give himself chances. At 80/1 it could be worth apying to see how many he gives himself and how many he can convert.
I always like a home player in these events and Adrian Otaegui fits the bill this week. He will know this course well and has both the mindset and the game to go well here. He has won on Tour this year albeit in match play and the next step is for him to win an event of this calibre. He is in the top 30 in fairways hit and top 50 in greens and is an excellent putter. He should go well here.
Finally the stats suggest that Felipe Aguilar could be one to be on this week. He is number 10 in the fairways hit ranking and seventh in greens in regulation. That ball striking is going to get him right in the mix this week so at a three figure price it is worth paying to see if he can convert a higher number of chances than he sometimes does.
Tips
WON – Back J.Luiten to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back G.Bourdy to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back F.Aguilar to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back A.Rai to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back A.Otaegui to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
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