We have reached the penultimate event of the PGA Tour season. The top 70 on the FedEx Cup rankings head to Illinois for the BMW Championship. At the end of the tournament the top 30 in the rankings will progress to the season finale at East Lake next week.
That means that while there is a big event to be won this week the focus will also be on the top 30 especially for those who are not currently in that position yet. This one is always an action packed tournament.
Recent Winners
2016 – Dustin Johnson
2015 – Jason Day
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Zach Johnson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Justin Rose
2010 – Dustin Johnson
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Camilo Villegas
2007 – Tiger Woods
The Course
Conway Farms Golf Club hosts this tournament for the third time in five years. It previously hosted in 2013 and 2015 when rain swept through the area and made the event something of a bombers paradise despite Zach Johnson winning the 2013 renewal. It is set to be a faster, firmer test this year.
The rough here is fescue which is usually pretty penal so there is no value in being too wayward here. Generally this looks a ball strikers course with fairways and greens very much the aim of the game. Those who putt well on top is a bonus but the firmer test should reward the better golfers from tee to green.
The Field
We only have 70 players in the field this week but with them being the leading 70 in the rankings quality is everywhere you look in the field. There are some debutants both on this track and this tournament but the field is full of quality.
Both play-off winners so far headline the field with Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas in it. Jordan Spieth has finished second in both events so far and he is here as is the defending champion Jason Day. They are joined by anyone who is anyone in the game at the present time.
Market Leaders
Jordan Spieth may not have won either of the two tournaments to date but he is the leader of the FedEx Cup and he is 13/2 to win this tournament and head to East Lake with the season proceedings very much in his own hands. His golf so far in the play-offs has been fantastic and he is very much the one to beat.
Dustin Johnson won The Northern Trust in the opening week of the play-offs and he is the second favourite to win again this week. You wouldn’t rule him out but I’m not convinced his length will be the advantage it is on other tracks so 8/1 is a little on the short side in my eyes.
Justin Thomas is 11/1 to win back-to-back tournaments after he fired his way to the Dell Technologies title at TPC Boston two weeks ago. He is now a regular tournament winner so he can’t be ruled out either but he can be a little loose off the tee which might be to his detriment.
Rickie Fowler is yet to win a play-off event this year but he is 12/1 to make up for that this week. He could be another who is slightly too wayward between the tee and the green with the same possibly being said about Jon Rahm. Hideki Matsuyama may offer much better value at 16/1 given his tee to green proficiency. It is 18/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
I’m having two main bets this week although they are further down the betting than usual. There is no cut this week so we are guaranteed four rounds for our money which is always nice.
My first bet is Patrick Cantlay. He is having a wonderful first play-off series having finished in the top 10 in The Northern Trust and just outside the top 10 in Boston. He leads the play-offs in GIR which is a very good statistic given that the quality in the two tournaments so far has been high. With nobody having more than eight rounds on this course nobody is completely familiar with the greens which can nullify any disadvantage he may have on them. He’s a big price at 50/1.
Another man who is a big price is the man who was runner up here in 2015 and that is Daniel Berger. He arrives 16th in proximity in the play-offs and second in scrambling and they are never bad statistics. Given that he was second here on debut you would think as a more established player now he can put those positive memories to good use with another big week.
Outsiders
I’ll go with two outsiders this week too and as I have already mentioned in the play-offs when ball striking and tee to green prowess is the order of the day I usually go towards Kyle Stanley. He leads the entire tour on ball striking and is second overall in total driving but what is more encouraging is that he is inside the top 15 in strokes gained putting in the play-offs. With few having too much of an advantage on the greens this week his positivity with the putter could be the thing that catapults him back into contention.
Ian Poulter needs a big week if he is going to be on the plane to Atlanta and this is a course which should serve him well. He doesn’t need to pin the ears back and extract what is not there off the tee and if he can dial a few irons in we know he is as good a green reader as there is. We’ve seen time and again that Poulter can deliver when his back is against the wall and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a big week from him here.
Tips
Back P.Cantlay to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back D.Berger to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 67.00 with Betbright (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back K.Stanley to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back I.Poulter to win BMW Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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