There are just two rounds left in the European Tour season and the first of those takes place out in Dubai on Saturday when the third round of the DP World Tour Championship is played out on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Resort.
Friday Recap
The Race to Dubai looks like going down to the wire after Tommy Fleetwood reeled back five of the seven shots he trailed rival Justin Rose by on Friday. He now goes into the final 36 holes of the season just two behind and has set up a fascinating finale.
As for this tournament the defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick shot through the field to take a one shot lead into the second half of the event. He is on 10 under par with Tyrrell Hatton alone in second after an amazing 63 on Friday. Justin Rose is in a tie for third with Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Julian Suri. Jon Rahm and Patrick Reed are among a large group three off the leader on seven under.
Unfortunately it was not a good day for our bet as Martin Kaymer was beaten by Soren Kjeldsen which leaves us with a little bit of making up to do to come out of the tournament ahead after a disappointing day on the outright front too.
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Saturday Betting
Once again the only large market available to us to bet on is the outright one and as with Friday the value is fairly tight given the position of now not just Justin Rose but also Jon Rahm on the leaderboard. With Fitzpatrick and Hatton right up there too the winner looks like coming from those four at the minute so it is hard to go back in with a bet knowing we really need to pick which one of them will win.
With my instinct still telling me at some point Rose will play for position and look to just beat Fleetwood the choice is made a little easier but there is still too far to go in the event to make a confident prediction. That sends me to the two ball markets for Saturday.
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Saturday 2 balls
As with the previous two rounds all 30 groups out onto the golf course have been priced up for Saturday. Fitzpatrick and Hatton go off in the final group at 8.45am GMT but the group which is sure to take the majority of the crowds is the one between Justin Rose and Jon Rahm. Thomas Pieters and Lee Westwood is an attractive group out much earlier in the morning. I’m with the former for a bet.
Justin Rose vs Jon Rahm
Match tees off at 08.25 GMT
This group will get plenty of focus on Saturday as Justin Rose continues his quest not just for this title but for the Race to Dubai crown too. He partners a man who went into the week in fourth on the Race to Dubai ranking and who can still secure a massive bonus for himself in Jon Rahm.
As with two weeks ago in Turkey, Rose has been nearly flawless from tee to green this week. He just needs his putter to warm up to shoot something substantially low. Rahm hasn’t been as good but when he has found the greens in the right number his putter has taken full advantage.
We saw Rose hole plenty in both China and Turkey in the second half of the event and I am expecting that trend to continue here. Rahm has him for length but Rose looks the more assured overall and I expect him to outscore the Spaniard in this third round.
Tips
Back J.Rose to beat J.Rahm for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfred
Back him here:
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