The Major League Soccer regular season is over and now the real stuff begins as the playoffs get underway on Wednesday night. Before they get going now seems a good time to have a look at the outright market given that we only started covering the league after the first stage began.
22 teams started out the campaign and now only 12 remain as we head into knockout football with the MLS Cup winners being determined on December 2.
The Format
Each Conference has six teams remaining. The top two in each conference – Toronto FC and New York City in the East and Portland Timbers and Seattle Sounders in the West – have byes in the first round of the play-offs.
Third host sixth and fourth host fifth in both Conferences to get the play-offs underway. They are one match knockouts. The number one seeds plays the lowest remaining team with the number two seeds playing the other team in the Conference semi-finals over two legs with the winners of each tie playing over two legs in the Conference finals.
The winners of the two Conference finals will go forward to the MLS Cup final which will be played at the home ground of the side with the most regular season points.
Western Conference
The Portland Timbers nailed the number one seeds in the final match of the regular season and they are 10/1 pokes to win the title. Many would suggest that they have the MVP of the season in Diego Valeri and with solid players such as Diego Guzman, Darlington Nagbe and Sebastian Blanco they are not short of firepower. Few go to Providence Park and win so it is hard to see the Timbers not being major players.
Seattle Sounders are looking to defend their title from the number two seed in the West. They have had an up and down campaign. When they are good they are very good but they can be pretty ordinary when things don’t go their way too. They are 8/1 across the board but they are not for me I have to say.
Vancouver Whitecaps were top of the West heading into the final week of the season but that didn’t get them very far as a defeat at the Portland Timbers sent them down to third and now they have to go the long way to the MLS Cup final. They are general 12/1 shots but I’m not convinced they have the credentials in the big matches.
Houston Dynamo put the atrocities of earlier in the year behind them to deliver some good to the area and now they will look to deliver a lengthy play-off run. They are very good at home but as good as they are in Texas they are terrible on the road and it is the latter issue which is the concern when considering them.
The other two sides are the Sporting Kansas City and San Jose Earthquakes who are 13/1 and 40/1 respectively. The Earthquakes were not even in the play-offs until injury time in the final regular season match but we’ve seen plenty of teams win from there. Sporting Kansas City’s dip in form since Dom Dwyer left is a concern and they might not have goals in them.
Eastern Conference
Toronto FC are the 9/4 favourites for the MLS Cup. They are the best team the regular season has ever seen in terms of points gained and having won the supporters shield they have home advantage wherever they go in the play-offs. They are a really good side and worthy favourites but I’m not convinced they’ll confirm their regular season dominance.
New York City FC will be looking to send Andrea Pirlo out on a high and they are 7/1 second favourites for the likes of David Villa and co to win the title. If any side are going to go on the road and win one of these things it could be them but even with Villa in the side I don’t see them having the all-round package to land the title.
Chicago Fire are the big improvers on the season. They have been terrible for the last few campaigns but the additions of Dax McCarty, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Nemanja Nikolic have been masterclasses and all of a sudden the Fire are contenders for the title once again. I fancy they’ll get found out at some point but they could take a scalp or two before they do.
Atlanta United are breaking all kinds of records this season and are looking to be the first expansion side to win the MLS at the first attempt. They are already the first new franchise to make the play-offs in their debut season and with the roster they have they have to be considered huge dangers at 12/1 especially with the form they head into the campaign with. Watch this lot.
The other two sides are arguably the two most entertaining sides in the entire competition in Columbus Crew and New York Red Bulls. For so long the Red Bulls have dominated the regular season and struggled in the postseason and having finished sixth this season they will hope to do things the other way around. The Crew could be the Eastern spoilers.
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Betting
You have to go all the way back to 1999 for the last time the Eastern Conference won the MLS Cup but surely that is going to change this year. The only way a Western Conference side could host the finale is if New York Red Bulls come out of the East and I don’t expect that to happen. If they don’t then whichever of the top five seeds come through the Eastern Conference they will be at home in the final.
With home advantage in this league being as significant as it is I’ve got to focus on the Eastern lot and at 12/1 I think Atlanta United have everything it takes to win the title. They have stacks of goals in them and recently they’ve really tightened up in defence. They have lost just two of their last 18 matches and one of them came when they had a number of players away on international duty.
Only Toronto FC scored more and conceded less in the East than Atlanta United but both those stats are skewed by Atlanta’s lengthy run on the road midway through the campaign while they were waiting for the Mercedes-Benz Stadium to open. Since then Atlanta have been on fire and they are my pick for the MLS Cup.
Tips
Back Atlanta United to win MLS Cup for a 2/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365
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