The penultimate event of both the European Tour season and the inaugural Rolex Series takes place this week when the leading lights in Europe head to Sun City in South Africa for the Nedbank Golf Challenge on one of the toughest but most picturesque golf courses the tour uses.
Alex Noren arrives in South Africa looking to defend the title he won last year but with Race to Dubai points up for grabs as well as a massive prize pool for the tournament nobody is lacking incentives to have a good tournament.
Recent Winners
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Marc Leishman
2014 – Danny Willett
2013 – Thomas Bjorn
2012 – Martin Kaymer
2011 – Lee Westwood
2010 – Lee Westwood
2009 – Robert Allenby
2008 – Henrik Stenson
2007 – Trevor Immelman
The Course
The Gary Player Country Club is once again the venue for this tournament, as it always has been. The event has undergone some changes down the years. It used to be an invitation event for a select band of golfers but it is now a full European Tour event with 70 odd players who will all play four rounds in the event.
The course has not changed in that time. It is a classic ball striker’s paradise. The fairways are narrow and need to be hit as the kikuyu rough is incredibly difficult to play out of and you have to hit the greens in regulation too.
For a par 72 which measures 7,831 yards it is a brutal beast although the course doesn’t play quite to its yardage as we are at altitude. Nevertheless someone who drives it well and long may take out the many bunkers awaiting errant tee shots. It is a great test of an all-round game.
The Field
Not everyone eligible on the Race to Dubai rankings are teeing it up this week but the leader of those standings is in the form of Tommy Fleetwood. Rolex Series winners Alex Noren, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Tyrrell Hatton are also in the field which is pretty strong.
Senior pros such as Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Ross Fisher are in the field as are some of South Africa’s finest including Branden Grace, Louis Oosthuizen, Dylan Frittelli and Dean Burmester. Matthew Fitzpatrick and Francesco Molinari will fancy good weeks to boost their Ryder Cup hopes.
Market Leaders
Tyrrell Hatton is the 14/1 favourite to land the tournament this week. In theory the course should suit him because his tee to green game is proficient but he has played a lot of top quality golf in recent times and it remains to be seen how much juice he has left in the tank. He is a worthy favourite but the price is tight given the quality of the field.
The South African duo of Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen come next in the betting at 16/1. Oosthuizen has everything needed to challenge strongly in this tournament as he has done in the past while Grace should not be ruled out either. Oosthuizen hasn’t played in a while so he could be rusty but with two top four finishes in the previous two years Grace will be looking forward to the week.
Tommy Fleetwood should be suited by this test perfectly. He is the best ball striker in the field and given that he has the chance to take a significant hold on the Race to Dubai title with a big showing this week I’m expecting him to fair well. 20/1 is a fair price I would say but I do just wonder if an eye on the bigger prize might distract him.
Francesco Molinari and Ross Fisher are the same price as the Race to Dubai leader. Molinari hits the ball well enough to go well here but could lack the length. Fisher has challenged for this title in the past but seems to always find one too good for him, as he has done for much of the season thus far. It is 25/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I took Joost Luiten a couple of weeks ago in Spain and it was one that got away from me so I am hoping that he can compensate for that as I am taking him again here. His tee to green game in recent times has been very strong and he has found his form with the putter too. He followed up the runner up finish in Spain with a solid effort in Turkey last week and with a decent effort here in the books last year when he wasn’t playing as well I expect a strong challenge. I think it is a matter of time before he wins again and I’ll pay to see if it is this week.
Dylan Frittelli had the time of his life in Turkey last week going toe to toe with two of Europe’s finest for the title there. Ultimately Justin Rose prevailed but the South African was brilliant from tee to green and his putter was hot. He certainly isn’t going to lack for support this week and he could go extremely well in conditions which will be natural to him. He won’t have to pound the driver like some will so he looks another great bet.
Outsiders
Jordan Smith has had a great debut season on the European Tour and he looks like he could have a big week here. He has a win and three top 10s to his name in this campaign with two of the top 10s of particular interest as one came in South Africa which bodes well and another in Qatar which is similar in characteristic to this one. He is a long hitter who hit the ball really well last week. If he can get some putts to drop he may not be far away.
Whenever a ball striking course presents itself and Fabrizio Zanotti is in the field my money is never far behind and I can’t resist a cheeky punt on the Paraguayan this week. Zanotti is one of the straightest hitters in the game and he lacks nothing into the greens either. He registered a top 10 on a course which might not have suited him as well as this one does last week and his putting stats were good there. If he putts well here he’ll have every chance.
Tips
Back J.Luiten to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back D.Frittelli to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfred (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back J.Smith to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back F.Zanotti to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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