The PGA Tour leaves America again this week and heads to Mexico for the OHL Classic. We are still in the early stages of the season with the so called lesser events being played out so the big names are either not playing or are teeing it up elsewhere but a cracking golf course and extreme conditions always guarantees a competitive event.
Recent Winners
2016 – Pat Perez
2015 – Graeme McDowell
2014 – Charley Hoffman
2013 – Harris English
2012 – John Huh
2011 – Johnson Wagner
2010 – Cameron Beckman
2009 – Mark Wilson
2008 – Brian Gay
2007 – Fred Funk
The Course
El Camaleon Golf Club at the Mayakoba Resort is the venue as ever this week. This is what you call a ball striker’s paradise. The course is a par 70 which only measures 6,987 yards so you don’t need to be a bomber to get around it by any means.
You do need to be accurate though. The fairways are tight and the greens not the easiest to find. Those who do find them will still have work to do with putting not easy around here. This course is not far from the sea so the wind is a big factor. It is essential you pick players who can function strongly in the wind because it is expected to blow hard this weekend.
The Field
As highlighted above this is not the strongest field we will see this season but it is made slightly stronger by a first start of the season for Rickie Fowler. He is joined by some seasoned campaigners and household names to battle it out for the title here.
One of those is the defending champion Pat Perez while Patrick Reed and Zach Johnson are high profile debutants. 2015 winner Graeme McDowell and fellow former champion Charley Hoffman are also in the field while Kevin Chappell, Ryan Moore and Emiliano Grillo will be looking to add to their tour titles.
Market Leaders
Given the relative weakness of the field this week Rickie Fowler is a probably obvious 9/1 favourite but given that this is his first start in a while I’m not sure I would want to be all over him. Admittedly he has the wind effect covered and he is pretty accurate too but you have to be on your game around here and he could be more than a shade rusty.
Pat Perez is 14/1 to defend the title. He has gone well in a couple of events already but defending a title is not the easiest thing to do with the extra demands on time. Perez ticks most of the boxes but despite all of that my instinct tells me that even in this field he looks very short. I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Gary Woodland, Patrick Reed and Chesson Hadley come next in the betting at 22/1. Reed is a debutant around here but in theory should go well while Woodland is a very solid player these days although I’m not sure this course suits his strengths. Hadley seems to have been playing every week forever and surely tiredness will kick in soon and his form will dip. It is 28/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
Zach Johnson is my first main bet this week. It is his debut here but that was the case for Graeme McDowell the year he won. Sometimes a course just suits and this should suit Johnson perfectly. We know he won’t be far from the fairways and he’ll hit a high percentage of greens. He remains an excellent putter and in the wind there are few better as we saw when he won The Open in 2015. He ticks every box and at 28/1 he looks a great bet.
Graeme McDowell won this tournament on his first outing and his title defence would have been much stronger had he not opened with a four over par first round. That can happen though because your time is taken up with promotion and media work as a defending champion. McDowell’s putter was in excellent form in Vegas last week and that is perfect because we know his tee to green game is strong. He is extremely competent in the wind so at 40/1 he looks a solid punt.
Outsiders
Alex Cejka was so close to victory in Vegas last weekend and I’m going to give him a chance this week. We’ve seen in recent times how someone who went close follows up with a big performance to win the following week. Cejka is decent enough in the wind. We saw that overall last weekend and as a former winner in Puerto Rico we have further evidence of that. He’s a decent ball striker and he shouldn’t be far away here.
Another man who hits the ball cleanly from tee to green is Brian Stuard. He may not be anything special when it comes to ripping up courses like the stellar names on the PGA Tour but around here is certainly has something going for him. He has a couple of runner up finishes on this track and if he has the form from two weeks ago with him here then he could well be in contention again come Sunday.
Chris Stroud is another one who is an excellent player in the wind and this course should suit him too. Top five finishes here in 2011, 2012 and 2013 highlight that. He won the Barracuda Championship last year but top 10s in the Puerto Rico Open and the USPGA highlight his wind credentials. If he can get some putts to drop I’m expecting a deep run from him too.
Tips
Back Z.Johnson to win OHL Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back G.McDowell to win OHL Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Stuard to win OHL Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back A.Cejka to win OHL Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back C.Stroud to win OHL Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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