The third major of the year is upon as with the very best golfers in the game heading to Merseyside for The Open which this year comes from Royal Birkdale as the tournament heads back to England after two years in Scotland.
Henrik Stenson is the official defending champion this week having got the better of Phil Mickelson in that incredible duel at Troon last year but Padraig Harrington is the defending Birkdale champion having won the event the last time it was held here in 2008.
Recent Winners
2016 – Henrik Stenson
2015 – Zach Johnson
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Phil Mickelson
2012 – Ernie Els
2011 – Darren Clarke
2010 – Louis Oosthuizen
2009 – Stewart Cink
2008 – Padraig Harrington
2007 – Padraig Harrington
The Course
Royal Birkdale is a true and traditional links course which will play to a par of 70 and a yardage of 7,173 yards which makes it 155 yards longer than the track Padraig Harrington won on in 2008 and 233 yards longer than the course which Mark O’Meara was victorious on ten years previously.
Wherever you look this week you will hear the words ‘fairest test on the Open rota’. That is because apart from two holes you can see the fairways off the tee and the fairways are flat. They are guarded by many of the 120+ bunkers on the course and whoever wins will spend the least time in them.
The rough is up this week so there is an added value to accuracy off the tee and players who can putt and scramble well should be high up on your list of picks as the majority of these greens are large with sizeable run off areas. This is a coastal track so the elements will dictate the difficulty of the course. If the wind is up this will be a tough test as it was in 2008 when Harrington shot +3 and won by 4!
The Field
As ever with a major championship the best of the best are here and this tournament is no different. Anyone who is currently anyone in the game of golf are here combined with a host of qualifiers from around the world for a top quality event.
The likes of Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Jason Day are all here looking to add to their major tally while Rickie Fowler and Jon Rahm will go in search of their first. Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka will be aiming to add to the majors they have won this year.
Market Leaders
It is a sign of just how open this tournament is that bookmakers go 16/1 the field and we have three co-favourites to land the title. They are Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler in truth you can pick holes in all of them. Johnson and Spieth certainly have issues with their game right now while Fowler has the mental demons to overcome having narrowly missed out in so many majors.
It could be that the first genuine contender in the betting is Jon Rahm at 18/1. Trends will tell you not playing last week won’t have helped him out by winning by six on a links course the week before certainly won’t have done him any harm. Whether he has the patience to win a major around here remains to be seen.
Masters champion Sergio Garcia and Rory McIlroy are next at 20/1. Had Garcia not already won a major this year I would take his chances very seriously indeed. He is a little short perhaps but he will win majors although only special players tend to win two in the same year. McIlroy comes in here with his game in a mess and is easy to pass over.
Justin Rose comes next on the course he shot to fame in during the 1998 tournament. He is 22/1 to win with Hideki Matsuyama and local man Tommy Fleetwood at 25/1. Cases can easily be made for both of those although Fleetwood is a touch short with the expectation on him while Matsuyama doesn’t appear the same player he was earlier in the year.
Profile
I’ve gone with four factors in all my bets this week. Accurate drivers, excellent scramblers, solid in the wind and extremely patient. Birkdale tends to produce a top class winner so I’ve not gone too far down the betting. This isn’t a long course so those who plot their way around and don’t lose their head should go well.
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Main Bets
Paul Casey has been playing some nice stuff this year. He has never been one to go for too much on the fairways and the rest of his game is ideal for this track which is probably why he was in the top 10 here in 2008. For 1.5 of the two majors this year he has been going well but a poor final two rounds at the US Open cost him after he led at halfway. Casey is seventh on the PGA Tour in scrambling and 26th in the all-around ranking. He’s my first pick.
Marc Leishman is even higher on the all-around ranking. He is ninth on that and having won the Arnold Palmer Invitational he will bring plenty of confidence with him to this tournament where he will look to build on losing in a playoff two years ago. Leishman has always been a patient player and he is very competent in the wind. With his short game more than acceptable he shouldn’t be far away.
Matt Kuchar is perfectly suited to links golf with his low ball flight and his impeccable patience should be a big thing this week too. He warmed up for the week with a nice jaunt in Scotland last week. Kuchar is a wonderful driver of the ball who sits tenth in scrambling. We know he can putt too and I would expect to see him there or thereabouts come the weekend.
Outsiders
Ian Poulter is probably an obvious outsider this week but I am fine with that. He is another who warmed up nicely for the event last week and as the closest challenger to Harrington nine years ago we know he can play this golf course. He is second on the PGA Tour for scrambling and with his underrated course management on his side this week I don’t expect him to be far away on a course which gives him his best chance of a major.
Brandt Snedeker is another one who has the right temperament and game to succeed around here. He was in the top 10 at the US Open on a course which suited him but was a shade long for him. This one isn’t. This is perfect. He can drive it straight, hit well into the greens and his scrambling is right there when he is on it. I expect him to go very close.
Nobody has hit more fairways on the PGA Tour this year in terms of percentage than Steve Stricker and given how well he went at Troon last year and here in 2008 where he was in the top 10 both times he is another relatively obvious pick. He warmed up for the tournament with a flying finish at the John Deere last week where he showed he is hitting it well. He is straight off the tee, solid with the irons, exemplary with the putter and a decent chipper. He can play in the wind so ticks every box at a huge price.
Tips
Back P.Casey to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back I.Poulter to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 76.00 with Bet365 (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back M.Leishman to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-10)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back M.Kuchar to win The Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
VOID – Back B.Snedeker to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back S.Stricker to win The Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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