The middle leg of the Desert Swing takes place on the European Tour this week. After a fantastic finale to the Abu Dhabi Championship last week it is the turn of Qatar to play host to some of Europe’s finest this week as the Qatar Masters is played out.
Often this is seen as the weaker of the three events on the Desert Swing but a pretty decent field has been put together this year which should create a highly competitive week of golf.
Recent Winners
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Branden Grace
2014 – Sergio Garcia
2013 – Chris Wood
2012 – Paul Lawrie
2011 – Thomas Bjorn
2010 – Robert Karlsson
2009 – Alvaro Quiros
2008 – Adam Scott
2007 – Retief Goosen
The Course
Doha Golf Club is the venue once again this week. The course measures 7400 yards and plays to a par of 72. The course is full of doglegs and gets its protection from the wind as it is very exposed so picking players who are comfortable in the wind is a must.
There has been an issue with the fairways ahead of this tournament so they are not as reliable as they normally are but hitting them is imperative still because greens in regulation is a key statistic for scoring around here. With the issue with the fairways the way it is that is something to factor into a staking plan.
The Field
The field lacks the headline names that we had last week but there are still some top players here. Alex Noren won four times on the European Tour last year and he is here looking to open his account this year while last week’s winner Tommy Fleetwood also tees it up.
Branden Grace isn’t here to defend the title but former winners Robert Karlsson, Chris Wood, Thomas Bjorn and Paul Lawrie are all here looking to win another title along with some of Europe’s best young talent.
Market Leaders
Alex Noren leads the betting market this week at 12/1. He tends to fare better in Dubai than in Qatar so it will be interesting to see how he goes here. Bernd Wiesberger is the same price as the Swede and you get the feeling it won’t be long before he goes in.
Martin Kaymer wasn’t far away last week and begins this tournament as a 14/1 shot, the same price as the runner-up from last year Rafa Cabrera Bello. Last week’s winner Tommy Fleetwood tees off this week as an 18/1 shot and it is 25/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
I’m taking two main bets this week. Peter Hanson warmed up nicely for this tournament with a top 10 in Abu Dhabi last week and I had him down as one to watch here even before that given his comfort in the wind. Hanson ranked 17 for fairways hit and 10 for GIR in a really strong field last week and those stats bode well.
Hanson is a former runner up here having finished second behind Paul Lawrie in 2012. He has never really come back here in good shape given all his injuries but he is fine now and playing well. I think that will translate into a big week here.
George Coetzee has an excellent record here with four top 12 finishes in a row and while he isn’t in the best form I have always had him down as a horse for a course and this appears to be one such time. Most of his problems have been on the greens so a return to a place where he has gone well on the greens in the past could well inspire him to a big finish this week.
Outsiders
I’m taking three outsiders this week who all fit the criteria of hitting plenty of greens and being comfortable in the wind. Good recent form or form around here are other factors.
Bradley Dredge is very proficient from tee to green. He was in the top 20 last week which was his first tournament of the season so that was a good effort. He has two top five finishes on this golf course and having finished 2016 in good form with plenty of top 20 finishes I’m expecting him to go well at a nice price.
Callum Shinkwin is someone I’ve long kept an eye on. He hits loads of greens in the right number as you would expect someone with his length to do. He shot a 65 in Abu Dhabi last week so he can score in the desert and we saw in the Scottish Open that he can play in the wind so he is a big price on a track which should really suit his game.
Mikko Ilonen hasn’t been in the greatest form in recent times but when the wind blows there won’t be many as comfortable as he is and his record in this tournament dictates that. He has three top 13 finishes in four years here and if he can just find enough greens in the right number we know he lacks nothing on them. I’m willing to chance him at a three figure price.
Tips
Back P.Hanson to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back G.Coetzee to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Shinkwin to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Ilonen to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back B.Dredge to win Qatar Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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