The 2017 State of Origin Series gets underway in Brisbane on Wednesday when the two old rivals Queensland and New South Wales get it on in the first of the three match series with more than pride on the line.
Many judges will suggest there has been a changing of the guard ahead of the upcoming series and that New South Wales are the favourites for just a second series win in 12 years but you write Queensland off at your peril.
Queensland
Doubts go out over whether the changing of the guard in the Queensland ranks means there will be a drop off in their performance levels but when you look through their side there is still plenty of experience at this level and that can always count for plenty. A home crowd will help them massively in this game too.
New South Wales
There was plenty of optimism around the Blues heading into last season’s series but that all came to nothing when they failed to perform in the first two matches. They claimed a consolation in the dead rubber of a third match but the damage was done by then. That should have further fuelled their fire for this series.
New South Wales have a much younger side than Queensland overall and what they lack in experience they certainly make up for with dynamism and creativity. They will need to make sure they handle the occasion in this match especially as they are stepping into the lion’s den but if they do that they’ll be dangerous.
Team News
Queensland are without Billy Slater and Johnathon Thurston for this opening match although Anthony Milford is a dangerous replacement for the latter. Greg Inglis is also missing for the home side and he’ll be a big loss too.
New South Wales will be playing their first Origin series without legendary skipper Paul Gallen. Boyd Cordner gets the armband for this match. There is no Robbie Farah either so two key men will need replacing. Jarryd Hayne plays his first Origin clash since his return from the NRL.
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Betting
In this match last season I took under 30.5pts which was a winner as Queensland won 6-4 in Sydney and my bet for the opening game this year is on similar thinking. I’m leaving the match outcome alone while we assess how big an impact the changes in the two sides will have but there is one bet I am taking.
The ten points scored in last season’s opener extended a run of low scoring opening matches which stretches right the way back to 2010. Since then there has not been a single opening match which has contained more than 30pts so the 33.5pt line in this first match looks too high to me.
Both sides look to set their stall out for the series in this opening match while you tend to find it isn’t until later in the series before we see the combinations produce their very best. Opening matches are usually tight battles with defences on top and that is how I expect this one to be too.
Tips
WON – Back Under 33.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.90 with Bet365
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