One of the most underrated tournaments on the PGA Tour takes place this week when the Valspar Championship is played out down in Florida. I get why the tournament is underrated. It comes this year after a WGC in Mexico and a couple of weeks before another one and many players already have their eye on The Masters too but we nearly always get a good tournament with four competitive days of golf here and I’m sure this year will be no different.
Recent Winners
2016 – Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – John Senden
2013 – Kevin Streelman
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Gary Woodland
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Retief Goosen
2008 – Sean O’Hair
2007 – Mark Calcavecchia
The Course
The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort is one of my favourite courses that the PGA Tour use. It is a par 71 which stretches as far as 7,340 yards but it is tight, treelined and full of danger and as such the winning score is usually quite high as evidenced by Schwartzel’s winning score of just seven under last year.
Accuracy off the tee is a big feature this week as trees to block lines into the greens for the wayward shot. The greens sound large in number but most of the quotes you will read from players suggest they are small so once again we have a week for the ball striker. There are five par 3s around this track so par 3 scoring and bogey avoidance could be big statistics.
The Field
The field is led this week by The Open champion Henrik Stenson who surprisingly doesn’t have this title on his CV yet. Regular tour winner this season Justin Thomas also tees it up while a host of former champions are also back for more.
They include Charl Schwartzel, Sean O’Hair, Luke Donald and Gary Woodland while the field is littered with major champions such as Jason Dufner, Webb Simpson and Keegan Bradley among others.
Market Leaders
Henrik Stenson is the 10/1 favourite to win the tournament this week but having pulled out midway through the first round last week you are taking a leap of faith that he is fit and firing. He has pulled out of the upcoming Matchplay too so everything may not be rosy in the Swede’s camp.
Justin Thomas has won three times this season already but he was heavily criticised for his attitude when bang in contention last week. He faded away due to that in the final round but he was in contention and there is no reason why he won’t be again here. If he has learned from last week he could be a big price at 12/1.
After those two it is 25/1 the field with Gary Woodland and Ryan Moore the two men on that price and then you are looking at 30/1 bar that quartet which highlights how open this tournament is.
Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets for this tournament. One is a former winner here and the other lost in a playoff recently. The former winner is Gary Woodland who I think is perfect for this tournament this year. He is a really good driver of the ball and in fact his entire tee to green game is in good shape. We all know about his putting and short game concerns but that is improving. These greens are still quite new with the bermuda on them but Woodland is better on that grass so the form horse should be a leading player this week.
Bill Haas lost to Schwartzel in the playoff last year but I still like him again. Haas is tied for sixth in par 3 scoring on the Tour this year and he leads the Tour on bogey avoidance. He is straight off the tee and a good putter when he’s on the dancefloor and I would be very surprised if he isn’t deep in contention on a course he has audibly claimed he absolutely loves.
Outsiders
I’m going to take a stab at three outsiders. If you look at the roll of honour here you will see the champions are all good players and with that in mind I’m taking that calibre of player in this section.
The first one is Graeme McDowell whose tactical brain and patience is absolutely ideal for this course. GMac leads the PGA Tour in par 3 scoring this season and he ranks high on the putting stats and given that we know he nearly always plays from the fairway there is plenty to like about the Northern Irishman this week. McDowell put in a good showing at the Honda and I’m expecting him to better that here.
When you speak of ball strikers there aren’t many in the game hitting the ball as well as Martin Laird. The Scot has putting issues which we know but few will beat him from tee to green and if the putter warms up this week he has every chance of being involved deep into Sunday. Laird is sixth in par 3 scoring and 16th in Bogey Avoidance despite his putting issues so I fancy he’ll go well.
Chris Kirk had an excellent start to the season but has gone quiet recently although shootouts aren’t really for him so we can forgive him that. He has a cracking profile for around here. He drives it straight, hits good iron shots and is a dream putter. He is seventh on Tour for Bogey Avoidance and if he can make a few birdies he shouldn’t be far away either.
Tips
Back G.Woodland to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Haas to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back M.Laird to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Kirk to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back G.McDowell to win Valspar Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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