The Desert Swing kicks off this week as a really strong field heads to the UAE for the Abu Dhabi Championship. There have been a few events of the new European Tour season but for me this is the one which really launches the new campaign.
Tommy Fleetwood held off a charge from Dustin Johnson to land the title here 12 months ago and both return to take their chance in a field absolutely loaded with world class talent which should provide a wonderful week of golf.
Recent Winners
2017 – Tommy Fleetwood
2016 – Rickie Fowler
2015 – Gary Stal
2014 – Pablo Larrazabal
2013 – Jamie Donaldson
2012 – Robert Rock
2011 – Martin Kaymer
2010 – Martin Kaymer
2009 – Paul Casey
2008 – Martin Kaymer
The Course
The Abu Dhabi Golf Club is the venue once again this week. The course develops into a better complex year on year which makes the challenge more testing and much better for us to watch.
The track itself is a par 72 which measures 7,583 yards but it doesn’t really play that long given the dry air. The rough is tricky around this course which the success to it being solid driving both in length and accuracy and hitting greens in regulation. The greens are usually quick around here so you don’t want your player missing them and facing tricky chips and shots around the greens.
The Field
Nine of the top 20 in the world are in this tournament including some real big names. Dustin Johnson is probably the biggest name in the game currently but Rory McIlroy is not far behind him. Both men tee it up here as do the likes of Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson and the newly crowned European number one Tommy Fleetwood.
There are plenty of overseas stars here with Branden Grace and Matt Kuchar among them while some of Europe’s other finest talent tee it up including Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Bernd Wiesberger, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Thomas Pieters.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is the 9/2 favourite to go one better this year than he did last. If he has the form that he had at the Tournament of Champions a couple of weeks ago with him here then he is going to take a whole lot of stopping. He might not even need to be that good in fairness but either way I struggle to take anyone this short in a field this stacked.
Rory McIlroy is the second favourite at 8/1 but this is his first tournament in more than three months and his first since he revealed this heart issue he has I’m definitely taking a watching brief on him rather than getting stuck in at this price. At his best he would be a leading chance but it is hard to see how he will be that.
One man who has been playing near his best in the last three months or so is Justin Rose and he could easily take this down at 9/1. I’m concerned he might lack a little bit of length off the tee but the rest of his game has been in good order so even that might not deny him. He’s the best option of the three at single figures but he’s still too short for me.
Henrik Stenson goes into the tournament as an 18/1 shot but it has been a while since he has looked at his best so he is not easy to back without us seeing him in good form. He did play ok at the EurAsia Cup last week but his price feels about right if not a little on the skinny side. It is 20/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’m nothing if not a glutton for punishment because I backed Tyrrell Hatton here last year and he led after 54 holes before dying on his backside in the final round but he’s won a couple of times since then so if he gets into the same position again I would fancy him to get the job done. Hatton is wonderful into the greens and he seems to putt well in this part of the world in the main. He has loads of top 10s in the UAE and should have had another last year in this. I think he’s a leading chance and he’s my first main bet.
Ross Fisher went fairly well in the EurAsia Cup last week and he is another player who I think will go well here. He hits a stack of greens courtesy of being very strong with the driver and when he finds the dancefloor in this part of the world he gives the hole a scare. He has a couple of top 20s around here but last week may just have him sharper than he’s been coming in here before. He’s a big enough price to chance this week.
Outsiders
I’m going with three outsiders here and only three so I hope Pablo Larrazabal doesn’t pick this week to run hot. My first one is a popular pick in Dean Burmester. This isn’t the first time I’ve backed him and it won’t be the last but he belts it miles, usually straight enough too and if the putter can find form early on in the tournament then he has the long game to hang around and make himself competitive on Sunday. At a three figure price he really is a no brainer.
Jamie Donaldson is a former winner around here and I’ve a feeling we are going to see good things from him this year. When a player has struggled for a while it is often a return to somewhere with positive memories that pulls him out of the slump. Donaldson is good into the greens and still one of the best on them. If he can keep it in play off the tee there is no reason why can’t threaten the honours come Sunday.
I’ll also take a chance with Richard Bland who statistically at least performed well last week. He ended up just outside the top 30 after a quiet final round. He was in the top 30 in fairways hit, greens hit and putts per GIR so if he can just tighten up he could go strongly here. I read a tweet a couple of weeks ago about him being in Dubai so he should be used to the conditions which gives him a chance here.
Tips
Back T.Hatton to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 26.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back J.Donaldson to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back R.Fisher to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 56.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back D.Burmester to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back R.Bland to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 301.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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