It is the final tournament of the regular European Tour season this week which means those not yet inside the top 110 in the Race to Dubai rankings have four rounds of golf at the Andalucia Masters to get back in there or else they will lose their tour card so the stages are very high.
We have one of the best players in Europe defending the title in Sergio Garcia, whose foundation hosts the tournament, and one of the best courses on the continent for the players to take on so everything is set up for a cracking week.
Recent Winners
2017 – Sergio Garcia
2016 – Andrew Johnston (Open de Espana)
The Course
The beautiful and iconic Real Club de Valderrama is once again the venue this week. The beauty of this course is that there is no hidden traits to it. You have to find the fairways here and you have to find the greens in the right number. This is a course for accuracy not pounding the life out of it.
The course itself is a par 71 which measures a shade under 7,000 yards but with the greens rolling fast and full of undulations it is vital that good ball striking is used to get close to the flags. This is not going to be a week for low scoring especially with the pressure on many of the field. Look for clean ball strikers as a must here.
The Field
Sergio Garcia is the clear standout player in what is an otherwise weak field this week. Former winners around here in Andrew Johnston and Soren Kjeldsen tee it up while Ryder Cup vice captains Lee Westwood and Padraig Harrington are also in the field for this tournament.
Shane Lowry is another high profile name to tee it up but apart from that it is largely the new brigade with many of the top players either playing in the PGA Tour event or waiting for the final series to come around. Bradley Dredge and Raphael Jacquelin are ranked 111 and 112 on the Race to Dubai and need to get into the top 110 to stay on tour.
Market Leaders
Predictably, Sergio Garcia is the tournament favourite this week. He is the 4/1 favourite and in truth if I was one for taking short and single figure prices he is probably value at that price given his record around this track and the weakness of the opposition lining up against him. Garcia has two wins, three seconds a third and a fourth placed finish around here. He might not be playing the best golf of his career but he’s the one to beat.
Shane Lowry is a 12/1 second favourite. He has fallen firmly into the overrated column for me and there is no way I could be backing him at 12/1 in any tournament in his current form. Maybe when he starts showing his best again but around here you need to be hitting it well and I’m not convinced that he is.
The experienced trio of Soren Kjeldsen, Lee Westwood and Padraig Harrington are next in the betting at 20/1. Kjeldsen and Westwood are perfect for this track but you have to go back quite a while for the last time either of them won at this level. Harrington may put up the stronger challenge of the three but my gut instinct is he is no better than the right price, perhaps even a little on the short side.
Andrew Johnston has won around here before and on the back of that 25/1 on him could be seen as a big price but he hasn’t really shown anything since then that would suggest he is about to go in again even in such a weak field so he is another who is fairly easy to pass over. It is 30/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
Richard Sterne has eight top 25 finishes on the European Tour this season with many of those coming in much stronger fields than the one he is competing in this week. Three of those have come in the last five weeks so there are plenty of signs that he is hitting the ball nicely. Sterne was ninth in fairways hit last week and tenth in greens hit but couldn’t get anything going on the greens. If he can crank up the his putter and get it warmed up he could run very well for a 33/1 shot.
Matthew Southgate is another player who is reliable from tee to green and he showed at times last week that he was getting the putter to work. I wouldn’t say he is the most reliable when it comes to winning but he has been challenging in much better fields than this one over the last couple of seasons. This course should suit Southgate and with many of the market leaders opposable he looks a decent enough fit.
Outsiders
Nino Bertasio has two top 11 finishes in two outings on this golf course and he has probably played his most consistent golf this season so he should fancy his chances to putting up another strong challenge here, especially with the weak nature of the field. I’m convinced the Italian players have taken inspiration from Francesco Molinari and you tend to find they are all great ball strikers. If he can get the putter going then he’s a threat this week.
It is a big week for Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano who needs a high finish to remain on the European Tour and I fancy his experience of this track could serve him well. He remains one of the better putters on the tour so if he can plot his way around from tee to green, and he isn’t a big hitter so he should be able to do that, then he can run hot for the four days he needs to.
Austin Connelly is one of the better putters on the European Tour and his putting can have him competitive this week. He can get it out there off the tee but he has enough length to not have to push drivers on this golf course. If he can position himself well enough off the tee then the rest of his game ticks the boxes needed to go well here at a monster price.
Tips
Back R.Sterne to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back N.Bertasio to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
PLACED – Back G.Fernandez-Castano to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back M.Southgate to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back A.Connelly to win Andalucia Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-7)
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