One of the best tournaments of the European Tour takes place this week when Justin Rose plays host for the British Masters, which this year is being held at Walton Heath. Rose follows in the footsteps of Ian Poulter, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood as host of the tournament.
Paul Dunne defends the title he won at Close House last year but he will have to beat arguably the best field that any of the hosts have managed to assemble in the tournament on a golf course that is pure.
Recent Winners
2017 – Paul Dunne
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
The Course
Walton Heath has not staged a European Tour event since the 1991 European Open but it has been used for US Open qualifying every year since 2005 although there is a slight composite course this week with two holes of the New Course being used along with 16 from the Old Course.
The course is a par 72 which is carded at 7,394 yards but if they play off the furthest back tees all week it can stretch to 7,632 yards. The fairways are fast and firm after the long summer and although they are fairly wide they have to be found because they are surrounded by heather and it is a no go in there. The greens are fairly large and sloping and the course is exposed. With winds likely to be up at times this week that is the defence for the course.
The Field
Full credit to Justin Rose. He has assembled a wonderful field. Obviously he will tee it up but he has attracted the Ryder Cup heroes Francesco Molinari and Tommy Fleetwood into the field while the likes of Thorbjorn Olesen and the winning captain Thomas Bjorn tee it up too.
The defending champion Paul Dunne is in the field this week while recent winners Lucas Bjerregaard, Matt Wallace, Andrea Pavan and Tom Lewis all have a tee time. Major champions Martin Kaymer, Padraig Harrington, Charl Schwartzel and Danny Willett add star quality to the field.
Market Leaders
The tournament host Justin Rose is the 15/2 favourite to win his own event but I don’t think that will be as easy as it sounds. So far the hosts of this tournament have finished T33, MC and T15 which suggests the off course demands on their time has a detrimental effect on what they can deliver on the golf course. Rose has been in the Sky Sports News studio this week and doing the Hero Challenge and after a busy week at the Ryder Cup it all feels like it could be too much for him. I’m definitely swerving him.
If I was to pick a man who should be the favourite if everything was equal it would be Francesco Molinari. This is another course ideally suited to him and at 8/1 he is probably a fair price but I heard someone way he has declared himself shattered going into the week, which is understandable. He is playing but I wonder if he would be in the field if it wasn’t within a taxi ride of his house. I suspect he wouldn’t be. Molinari is a class act but if the petrol tank is low he’s not for me at 8/1.
I’m guessing the same could be said for Tommy Fleetwood and he is 10/1 to go one better than he went last week at the Dunhill Links. I suspect he’ll run out of steam soon too and that is really the only reason why I wouldn’t go near him. He is playing with Molinari for the first two rounds so he’ll probably have to field god knows how many questions on the Ryder Cup too which could distract him. He’ll win again this season but maybe not this week.
Former champion Matthew Fitzpatrick and Thorbjorn Olesen are 25/1 to win the tournament this week. I’ll come onto Fitzpatrick in a moment but in fairness Olesen has every chance. I’d be put off by the amount of golf he has played recently and that he isn’t always the most reliable off the tee but that is my personal preference. It is 28/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I’ll go with two main bets this week and the first of those is a man who won a tournament just last month in Matthew Fitzpatrick. I would imagine this is a tournament is dear to his heart given that it gave him his first European Tour win at Woburn in 2015 so I would imagine he’ll be bang up for this. His win in Switzerland shows us that he’s in decent touch and having got a bit of rust out of his system at the Dunhill Links last week he can get back to business on a course where his iron play and short game can thrive. At 25/1 he looks a good bet to me.
Andrea Pavan is another who should love this course. He is second on the European Tour in strokes gained on the approach to the green and I think it is that department which is going to sort the men out from the boys this week. We’ve seen in his recent tournaments that he can handle the wind. He was in the top 15 in the Scottish Open, the top six in the Nordea Masters and he survived the tough conditions last week to finish fifth. In and around all that he won the Czech Masters on a course not too dissimilar to this so at 45/1 he looks a good shout to me here.
Outsiders
Although this tournament has thrown up top class winners in the past I’m getting the darts out of the case and firing them at some big prices. Andrew Johnston should be right up for this. He shot 65 in qualifying for the US Open on this course back in June and having won the Hero Challenge his confidence and ego got a nice boost. He was in the top 10 of The Open last year and twice has been nicely placed at halfway in this tournament only to fade. I think he’ll get his head down this week with it not having been the best of seasons for him and as a local lad he’ll know the layout. At 66/1 he’s worth a go.
Bradley Dredge has regularly shown that he knows how to get by in the windier conditions and I’m expecting him to thrive when the gusts come along. He is very much someone who relies on the shorter irons which he’ll be able to do this week and as a decent putter he might lap a few on these expansive greens. It has been a while since Dredge went close but he has had two top 20s prior to running into Carnoustie in the monstrous winds last week. He’s clicking in the right direction though and this is no Carnoustie so I’ll take my chances at 125/1.
Richie Ramsay has a wonderful record around here in US Open qualifying, shooting 65 on this track to qualify this year and 66 on it last year. There is clearly something about the set up that he enjoys and although his form coming in isn’t the best we know he can handle the wind so if the course brings out the best of his game then at 150/1 he could give us more than a run for our money this weekend.
Paul Waring shot the lowest round of the lot on the Old Course in qualifying for the US Open, whizzing it around in 64 blows. He wasn’t in great nick heading into that 36 holes so the fact he has missed a few cuts in a row shouldn’t deter us. He won the Nordea Masters which highlights that the winds won’t affect him and in probably the most realistic chance he has of a home win given the quality of field the BMW PGA attracts I fancy him to go well. He’ll have good memories from June and if they inspire him 200/1 could turn into a ridiculous price on someone who won just two months ago.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win British Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back A.Johnston to win British Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Unibet (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back B.Dredge to win British Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back P.Waring to win British Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back A.Pavan to win British Masters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Ramsay to win British Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-7)
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