The European Tour season has reached its final event with the top 60 men in the Race to Dubai rankings heading to Dubai for the DP World Tour Championship where there is an avalanche of riches on offer.
As well as a Rolex Series prize pool there is the Race to Dubai rankings and bonus money to sort out which the defending champion Jon Rahm will be looking to get more than his fair share of when he takes on a really good field.
Recent Winners
2017 – Jon Rahm
2016 – Matthew Fitzpatrick
2015 – Rory McIlroy
2014 – Henrik Stenson
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Rory McIlroy
2011 – Alvaro Quiros
2010 – Robert Karlsson
2009 – Lee Westwood
The Course
As always, it is the Earth Course at the Jumeirah Golf Estates that stages the tournament this week. At 7,706 yards the course is a monster of a par 72 but the dry heat and humidity of the location will see the ball travelling through the air a little further so it doesn’t play as long as the numbers suggest.
This course has been used enough now to know that it is a bombers paradise. The fairways here are extremely wide and the greens are large so there are no demons for the bigger hitters. We know this tournament will turn into a low scoring shootout so keep the better putters on side over the course of the week.
The Field
Given that it is the leading 60 players on the Race to Dubai the field this week is of the highest quality. It contains the European number one in waiting in Francesco Molinari and the man he is set to replace in that position in Tommy Fleetwood. Defending champion Jon Rahm is also in the field.
In terms of profile the field is headed by Rory McIlroy while recent winners Xander Schauffele, Lee Westwood and Lucas Bjerregaard are also here while Eddie Pepperell is slated to tee it up for the first time since winning the British Masters. Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Reed and the winner of the other Dubai tournament Haotong Li give further star quality to a studded field.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is a 9/1 shot to win the tournament this week. He might be under a bit of pressure to deliver too after confirming he only has two European Tour events on his schedule for next season. He has a new driver in the bag this week but it hasn’t been that club that has been the problem. As ever I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins but I won’t be backing him to do so at 9/1 in this company.
Jon Rahm is an 11/1 poke to defend his title successfully. I wouldn’t normally go near a defending champion but if I was going to it might be this week because there has hardly been any focus on him leading into the event with Molinari and Fleetwood hogging all of that and then McIlroy’s recent revelation has pushed him further away from the spotlight. All that said, I’m not convinced he’s going as well as he was when he arrived here 12 months ago.
Sergio Garcia arrives here in blinding form having won at Valderrama last month and run hot in the Nedbank Challenge last week but whether he has the length to tame this beast at a short price I’m not sure. He is 12/1 to win this week with Tommy Fleetwood 14/1. My issue with Fleetwood would be that he may chase the Race to Dubai title more than this one much like Justin Rose and the FedEx Cup earlier in the season.
Xander Schauffele is a 16/1 poke to win this tournament which should be of interest in terms of his outings in the HSBC Champions and The Open but as a debutant around here he probably isn’t the one to be on this week. Tyrrell Hatton would offer up more attraction although his ability to blow a touch too hot and cold puts me off him at shorter than 20/1.
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Main Bets
Matthew Fitzpatrick has a good record around here having finished fourth on debut and then won it in 2016 and to be fair given he defended the title last year he put up a spirited showing last year too so there is something about this course that suits him even though he isn’t necessarily the longest in the field. What he is, is he is extremely accurate and that serves a player well on any course in the world. Fitzy is also an excellent putter which is key this week. He has top class bag man Billy Foster alongside him this week after his split from Lee Westwood and with both good friends of the Nedbank winner I’m sure it is a pairing that will be inspired by his success last week. At 33/1 the former champion looks a grand bet here.
Lucas Bjerregaard has the ideal game for the Earth Course. He smacks it a million miles, walks after it and smacks it another million miles then holes it from where it lands. The Dane has found a real groove with the putter and as a result he has six top 20 finishes in his last seven events coming in here and to be fair the exception was the WGC event in China which might be beyond him right now. Bjerregaard won the Dunhill Links last month and that is no bad form guide here with a number of winners of that having good records here. At 35/1 I’ll pay to see if he has the double in him.
Outsiders
Thomas Detry is catching the eye at the minute. He has been touted as a champion in waiting for a while and successive top 10s in big events coming into this week justifies the hype. Importantly nobody in the field putted better than him in Turkey a couple of weeks ago and he kept a nice groove with the putter in South Africa last week. Sometimes a lack of accuracy does the Belgian in but this course doesn’t punish that so if he can keep his putter hot and find a few more greens the win he has been threatening could very well come this week.
Speaking of South Africa, Dean Burmester ran well at the Nedbank Challenge last week and was going to secure a big finish in the final round until he pushed to try and catch the leaders and came unstuck taking a few risks that maybe weren’t there but his long game was in good order all week and if he can find the putts to drop then he shouldn’t be too far away at a three figure price this week. His length should set him up with plenty of chances and if he can take them he might secure a big finish to the season. Burmester was fourth here last year and if he improves on that now that he knows the course he really shouldn’t be far away.
Tips
Back M.Fitzpatrick to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back T.Detry to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 56.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
Back L.Bjerregaard to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back D.Burmester to win DP World Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Coral (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
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