Preview
Still 14 declared in the Derby with half the field trained by Aiden O’Brien. With the ground riding soft, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of the more fancied runners come out so we’ll take our bets early as I expect prices to shorten.
Favourite
The favourite is the impressive 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior and, in all fairness, he looks a class above his rivals. However, I cannot be taking odds on as the likely soft ground will put even more emphasis on stamina & he has yet to race beyond a mile. That said, he looks a beast & is without doubt the most likely winner.
Contender
The 2nd favourite is Roaring Lion, the impressive winner of the Dante. I just don’t see him staying despite that Dante run & his tendency to hang is a big concern with the Epsom undulations. He struggled too at Newmarket (twice) this season & a more conventional flat track suits. In front of Roaring Lion in the Guineas was Masar who ran a good race but was no match for Saxon Warrior. I’m not certain he’ll like the ground & whilst there are worse 20/1 shots around, I’ll look elsewhere.
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Betting
The first of 2 bets is Chester Vase winner Young Rascal. Bred to stay being out of crack French horse, Intello, he has a turn of foot too. 2nd in a maiden in his 1 start as a 2 year old, he opened up this term by coming miles clear in a Newbury maiden over 11 furlongs before following up in the Vase. He was denied a clear run twice but ran on well & won in style. There was lots to like about that run & I think a longer straight is in his favour. I’m not worried about the undulations as Chester isn’t the easiest track to get around.
He’s probably the one fancied horse in the race who will relish the wet conditions & if further downpours arrive as predicted, his price is only going to go one way. From one of the shrewdest yards around & with a top jockey aboard, I’d have him as clear 2nd favourite currently behind Saxon Warrior so the 10/1 still available is too big to ignore.
The 2nd bet is the O’Brien 2nd string, Delano Roosevelt. Since winning his debut, he’s been beaten on his next 4 starts &, in that time, 4 of this field have finished in front of him. But, to me, he’s still improving & has showed signs of greenness on each run. He was 2nd to Saxon Warrior at the end of last season & this term, he’s been runner up twice in the Ballysax & the Derrinstown over a mile & a quarter. On heavy ground in the Ballysax, I thought he was going to get past Nelson but maybe he needed the run. He did gallop all the way to the line though. Hazapour came out on top in the Derrinstown & looked impressive but that confirmed to me that our horse is more of a stayer & probably the one most likely to be suited to the longer trip.
He’ll love the soft ground & is a true stayer in the making. Not only will conditions suit, he looks a straightforward type that will act on the track. He looks a cracking each way bet in a race where the pace will be frenetic & he’ll be staying on best of all from the back.
Tips
Back Young Rascal (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Boylesports NRNB (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back Delano Roosevelt (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Boylesports NRNB (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back them here:
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