We are just under two weeks away from the big one at Aintree but before we get there we have the Irish Grand National which takes place at Fairyhouse on Monday. It is a deep field but that doesn’t put us off.
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Preview
With 30 runners & Gordon Elliott having over a third of the runners & Willie Mullins running a few, this is no easy puzzle to solve. Traditionally, we’ve seen big priced winners from the bottom of the handicap but recently that trend has been diluted somewhat; last year, for example, Our Duke won carrying 11st4lb at a price of just 9/2.
Novices have a good record in this & that’s the route I’m going down for my 3 each way punts. I am opposing the market leaders as 5 of the front 6 have all gone up in the handicap & I’m not sure that’s the perfect profile for a winner of such a competitive race.
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Betting
The first selection is Dounikos who has run just 4 times over fences but has shown more than enough to suggest he has the class to land this. He beat another of today’s rivals, Monbeg Notorious, on his chase debut on heavy ground before following up on similar going, accounting for the very useful Tombstone. Next up, he was less than 2 lengths 4th in a Grade 1 behind 3 high quality horses in Monalee, Al Boum Photo & Invitation Only. That was over 2 mile 5 furlongs & a step up in trip is sure to suit.
He was subsequently disappointing at Cheltenham but I am prepared to forgive that effort & his shrewd trainer is confident of a big run. There is a small question mark over the trip but he’ll love the ground & looks well handicapped if he does stay. 16/1 is a price that is unlikely to last.
Squouateur is the next bet &, like Dounikos, has stamina doubts & comes here off the back of a Cheltenham run. This grey has a very light weight & is well handicapped despite having failed to win a chase so far. Most of his career runs have been up to 2 and a half miles but he stayed on well at Cheltenham over 3 and a quarter miles when not far behind Mall Dini who is half the price today. He’s a winner of 2 hurdle races at this track so likes the place, and the ground is perfect. He’s a horse that likes to be held up & he travels sweetly through his races which is a positive in such a big field. Again, 16/1 is way too big & is enough for me to get involved.
Finally, I’ll throw a dart at 33/1 shot Arkwrisht who has failed to fire recently but has some excellent early season form in the book. After winning a beginners chase at Kilbeggan, he finished 2nd in the Kerry National. What I like about that bit of form is the way he stayed on, the ground being similar to today & the fact he loved the light weight like he’ll get here. He’s not shown much since but has been aimed at this race for a while. Conditions favour this one & it’s the stables only runner in this. Another with a cracking each way chance.
Tips
Back Dounikos (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back Squouateur (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back Arkwrisht (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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