The final round of the Italian Open, the second Rolex Series event of the season, takes place in Brescia on Sunday and it begins with a whole bunch of players who are targeting either the title or a big pay day.
After a third successive low scoring day on the links I think it is fair to expect a lot more of the same over the course of the final round so we are all set for an unpredictable but thrilling finale to this competition.
Lee Slattery came from nowhere to take a one shot lead into the final round of the tournament. He shot a nine under 62 to lead on 16 under from the local hero Francesco Molinari, who is looking for wins in back-to-back Rolex Series events, and Thorbjorn Olesen. Martin Kaymer and Danny Willett survived the low scoring to remain within two of the lead while Rafa Cabrera Bello, Andy Sullivan, Jordan Smith and Haotong Li all lie three back on 13 under. Thomas Pieters and Ian Poulter are 12 under par.
It was another frustrating day betting wise for us on Saturday as we could only pick up yet another dead heat in a tournament where I’m finding actual full winners difficult to come by. There is one more round to change all that though.
In terms of a deep market there is only the outright market to go at where Francesco Molinari is probably a rightful favourite although I suspect Thorbjorn Olesen could be the man to beat from the final group now. It isn’t a market that I’m interested in betting on though because as we saw on Saturday someone could shoot something crazy from down the field and with the leaderboard so tightly bunched they might be close enough for a posted score to hold up throughout the day. With that in mind I’ll go to the two balls.
Sunday 2 Balls
After three rounds of sending the players out in threes the field go out in two balls on Sunday with the final pair of Slattery and Olesen off out at 12.15 BST. Before them Francesco Molinari and Danny Willett go off at 12.05 BST. There are some good pairings onto the golf course throughout the day on Sunday with the crowds likely to be attracted to the Lee Westwood and Tommy Fleetwood group in particular. They go out at 9.37 BST. It is the final group that interests me from a betting point of view though.
Lee Slattery vs Thorbjorn Olesen
Lee Slattery shot a wonderful 62 on Saturday but we see time and time again that it is hard to follow one amazing round with another and when you add into the mix that he is not a regular contender for events of this size it is not taking too much imagination to think that the Englishman might struggle in this final round.
Thorbjorn Olesen is much more familiar with teeing off this late on Sunday and he has been playing some excellent golf throughout the week rather than just one round. He is no stranger to taking the chance to win on Sunday so I expect another good round from him. I don’t want to take anything away from Slattery but he had a stroke of luck or two on his way to his excellent round on Saturday. I think Olesen beats him on Sunday.
WON – Back T.Olesen to beat L.Slattery for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with 888sport