After the first Rolex Series event on the European Tour last week the second one follows very quickly as it is held at the Italian Open in Brescia, beginning on Thursday. Another huge prize pool which is likely to have significant effects on the Ryder Cup team is in place this week as is a decent field.
Tyrrell Hatton won the tournament in a close run finish last year and he will attempt to defend the title this week but with a world class field going up against him and the event on a different course he is no guarantee to make a successful defence.
Recent Winners
2017 – Tyrrell Hatton
2016 – Francesco Molinari
2015 – Rikard Karlberg
2014 – Hennie Otto
2013 – Julien Quesne
2012 – Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano
2011 – Robert Rock
2010 – Fredrik Andersson Hed
2009 – Daniel Vancsik
2008 – Hennie Otto
The Course
The tournament returns to the Gardagolf Country Club for the first time since 2003 when Mathias Gronberg won the tournament. It also staged the event in 1997 too but there are not too many players teeing it up this week who will have played in either event.
As with most Italian courses there appears to be an emphasis on the long game with the second shots in particular of importance into what are usually small greens. The course is said to be quite soft though so it might be that the longer hitters get a little more out of it.
The 18 holes are made up of nines from two different courses this week but when put together they compile a par of 71 which measures 7,201 yards so it is not particularly long on the yardage book for this day and age although with the rain that has been around it could play slightly longer.
The Field
The former champion and winner of the BMW PGA Championship, Francesco Molinari, is the main attraction in the field this week but there are a number of players eyeing up Ryder Cup selection who are here too not least the defending champion Tyrrell Hatton.
The European number one Tommy Fleetwood is in the field this week as are Alex Noren, Ian Poulter, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Matthew Fitzpatrick. Outsiders for Ryder Cup picks such as Ross Fisher, Alexander Levy, Paul Dunne and Adrian Otaegui are also in the field.
Market Leaders
Francesco Molinari is the 10/1 favourite to follow up last week’s success with another win this week. I have a couple of concerns with that I must admit. Firstly it is hard to win back-to-back weeks on any tour let alone two big events like this one and also he’s the main man in Italy so the demands on his time are likely to be strong. He’s not for me.
Alex Noren put up a very good defence of his BMW PGA Championship title last week and he is 11/1 to win a second Rolex Series crown this week. He didn’t have his best stuff at Wentworth last week but showed his class to finish high up the leaderboard. There isn’t too much not to like about Noren unless you feel the price is a little short in this company.
Tommy Fleetwood got himself into contention at Wentworth and then had a mare of a third round which sent him spiralling away from it. He finished well enough though and we all know the class that he has from tee to green so he could be the man to beat at 12/1 although it might require a slight leap of faith to back him after that terrible Saturday.
Matthew Fitzpatrick is finding form more and more as the season goes on and is a popular man at 16/1. There is no weakness in his game and you get the feeling he is going to challenge strongly at some point in the not too distant future but whether it will be an event of this magnitude remains to be seen. I think I’d rather have him on side than be against him but at the price I’m a touch non-plussed either way. It is 20/1 bar.
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Main Bets
I took Alex Levy last week but he never quite got going but I can’t ignore him in soft conditions this week. I believe he is at his best in the softer conditions as there is less likelihood of him losing wayward tee shots and into these smaller greens he should gain something of an advantage. With the lure of the Ryder Cup very much in his thoughts I’m expecting him to be bang up for an event of this kind and at 40/1 he’s my first bet.
Lucas Bjerregaard began and finished really well at Wentworth last week and while the magnitude of the occasion might have been too much for him in between I see no reason why he can’t continue his good form this week. He has now recorded three top six finishes and in the last two of those he has been in the top three statistically. Nobody hit more greens than him last week and with his length off the tee likely to combat the softer conditions I think he is a significant runner here.
Outsiders
I’ll plump with three outsiders and while Adrian Otaegui may not have the length of some off the tee we’ve seen in the past that he is not affected by that. His iron play is among the most precise on tour and into what are expected to be soft greens that will be important. We saw in Belgium a couple of weeks ago that every element of his game is in good nick and while this might be a stronger field I still think odds of 66/1 are a joke. I’ll side with him here.
Paul Waring was showing some good form prior to the BMW PGA Championship last week and in truth it was only really the Saturday where he was poor at Wentworth. He wasn’t the only one who fell into that trap that is for sure. He has been in the top 25 for driving distance in five of his last six tournaments without losing any accuracy so if he can get back to hitting greens like he was earlier in the season then he could run very well at a big price.
Sebastien Gros ran well at a big price last week and actually led the BMW PGA Championship after 45 holes before the powerhouses in the field powered clear of him but there was absolutely no shame in that. That was in soft conditions like he is likely to get here and with his power off the tee and improvement into the greens in recent times there is every chance he can get into the mix here and this time he might just stay there.
Tips
Back A.Levy to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Bjerregaard to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Otaegui to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back P.Waring to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
Back S.Gros to win Italian Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-8)
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