Once again the PGA Tour leaves America this week as it heads across the border into Mexico for the Mayakoba Golf Classic. We’ve seen a few of these ‘Fall Series’ events get better fields because of the new condensed schedule this season and it has happened again here.
Patton Kizzire rolled into Mexico to run away with the title last year and he will be out to defend the crown but he will be up against significantly better opposition this time around it must be said.
Recent Winners
2017 – Patton Kizzire
2016 – Pat Perez
2015 – Graeme McDowell
2014 – Charley Hoffman
2013 – Harris English
2012 – John Huh
2011 – Johnson Wagner
2010 – Cameron Beckman
2009 – Mark Wilson
2008 – Brian Gay
The Course
We are back at the El Camaleon Golf Club at the Mayakoba Resort this week. I always think of this as the very definition of a paradise for ball strikers. The course is a par 70 but it only stretches to 6,987 yards and given the altitude as well it is quite a short course.
Accuracy is very much the necessity this week. The fairways are tight and take some finding while the greens are equally tough to land on. Putting isn’t easy on this course either so an all-round game is required. Although the winds are not expected to be strong this week we’re not far from the sea so it is probably better to have those comfortable in the breeze on side.
The Field
Rickie Fowler is back in Mexico this week to headline the field. He is joined by his Ryder Cup teammates Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth who will be looking for their first titles of the year. Gary Woodland is another American who is chasing the title this week.
Abraham Ancer will get lots of attention this week as he tees it up on home ground while players such as Billy Horschel, Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo and Zach Johnson look ideally suited for this test. Cameron Champ looks to emulate defending champion Patton Kizzire by making this his second win of the campaign.
Market Leaders
Rickie Fowler is the 8/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. A couple of years ago the case for Fowler would be an obvious one to make and while he is the best player in the field in terms of credentials he hasn’t really looked like winning for a while and just offers little or no value even in this field. At 8/1 he’s far too short for me to even consider regardless of whether he finally comes good or not.
Tony Finau is probably the second best player in the field so him being the 14/1 second favourite this week is probably right but it is only that. I don’t think there is a huge amount of value in him. He is a fair price and no more. I wouldn’t want to be backing him anyway after the way he failed to close out in China but I’m certainly not interested at 14/1.
Jordan Spieth should really have the taking of this tournament by the scruff of the hand and it might be that we look back on it on Monday and wonder why we didn’t get indulged at 16/1 but in truth his game doesn’t look to be anywhere near the level we know he can play at so even if he does win I’m happy to let him do so without my money on him.
Gary Woodland is an 18/1 poke this week. I’m convinced he goes in soon but I’m hoping he waits until he is a slightly better price. Even at 18/1 I’m tempted in this field but it doesn’t feel quite right back such an infrequent winner at a price below 20/1 at the very least. Emiliano Grillo is a 20/1 poke and he looks to have every chance. The only thing that puts me off him is the amount of near misses he has had recently. It is 28/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Si Woo Kim is someone who should fit this course nicely. He led the field on the greens in Vegas last week which is significant when he heads to Mexico on greens that he has already gone on well in the past. He was third here last year and in the top 20 a couple of years prior to that. He already has a couple of top 20 finishes in the new PGA Tour season and with the market leaders all having doubts over them I think Si Woo Kim is a live runner here.
I’ve missed out on the best prices on Abraham Ancer but I’ve got to back him on home turf. I’ve been on him a couple of times this season and he hasn’t quite delivered but his time is going to come so it would be a real kick in the nuts if he wins his home tournament and I haven’t got so much as a bean on him having backed him regularly in recent times. He is driving the ball well and scoring well so I’ll pay to see if this is his week.
Outsiders
Kevin Kisner hasn’t shown a huge amount of form since The Open but at least his running there showed that he can travel. This course should suit him nicely with accuracy being paramount. You have to putt well here and that is Kisner’s forte. With no pressure on him to pound it distances that are beyond him off the tee there is enough in Kisner’s favour. He will find form again at some point and if it is this week he is three times the price he should be. I’m happy to have a look at how he fares.
Jim Furyk saw his form suffer with his Ryder Cup commitments but now he has put the captaincy behind him I’m expecting to see him return to how we remember him. He is religiously straight off the tee and into the greens which is a priority around here. He certainly isn’t the worst with the putter so if he has found time to fine tune his game now that the Ryder Cup is behind him we are going to see Furyk in contention again. If that is this week he is a monster price.
Tips
Back S-W.Kim to win Mayakoba Golf Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-7)
Back A.Ancer to win Mayakoba Golf Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Skybet (1/5 1-7)
Back K.Kisner to win Mayakoba Golf Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back J.Furyk to win Mayakoba Golf Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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