After the highs of the third major of the season, the regular European Tour resumes in Germany this week with the Porsche European Open, a tournament which probably doesn’t have the profile it once did but which is getting some sort of status back.
That is helped by the fact that a number of leading lights who were in Europe for The Open have decided to remain around for another week which gives the field a much better look than when Jordan Smith broke his European Tour duck here last year.
Recent Winners
2017 – Jordan Smith
2016 – Alex Levy
2015 – Thongchai Jaidee
2009 – Christian Cevaer
2008 – Ross Fisher
The Course
For the second year in succession the Green Eagle Golf Resort in Hamburg will play host to the competition this week. The tournament will be held on the North Course which has the potential to be a monster at 7,831 yards but thankfully the organisers usually see sense and cut the yardage down a bit from that. It is supposed to be a par 72 playing 7,583 yards this week.
Last year driving accuracy was important in terms of the statistics which was a strange one given that the course was sodden with all the rain that was around 12 months ago. It is completely the opposite this time around with hardly any rain in this side of Europe recently which means the fairways will play even narrower. With that in mind I’m looking for solid drivers. The course ends with three par fives in the final four holes so those who score well on the par fives might get an advantage.
The Field
The Masters champion Patrick Reed headlines the field this week. He isn’t the only American hanging around from Carnoustie. Bryson DeChambeau and Pat Perez are also in the field while Paul Casey has stopped off here before heading back across the pond for the big events to come. Charl Schwartzel is another big name teeing it up.
The continental European charge will be headed up by the likes of Alexander Levy and Adrian Otaegui who will both be aiming for another win in the season. Jordan Smith will be looking for a big title defence with many other European Tour stalwarts also teeing it up on what should be a decent week.
Market Leaders
As you would probably expect it is Patrick Reed who heads the betting this week at 9/1. If he was in the form which saw him win at Augusta you would be all over him like a rash but there are just a few signs he has quietened down in recent weeks. He was expected to challenge strongly on the Scottish links but never really featured in either tournament. He’s the leading player in the field but value might be on the short side.
Paul Casey could do with a big win on European soil in case he is after a wildcard for the Ryder Cup team. It could be that after all the effort to get him to join the tour he is a lock for one should he need it but even so a win here would take away all the conspiracies and potential doubts about him being picked. He is 10/1 this week which seems fair but no more.
Bryson DeChambeau has been one of the better players on the PGA Tour this season but pulled out of the John Deere Classic through injury a couple of weeks ago and never really convinced me he was fit at Carnoustie last week. He is 14/1 to win here and while he’s certainly good enough I would want to know he is 100% before I commit my hard earned on him.
Pat Perez is the third leading American in the field. He might have unfinished business with this tournament having been disqualified from it last year and is 22/1 to waltz away with the title but there hasn’t been much in his form recently that has convinced me he is about to win, especially away from the States, although he is a birdie machine when he gets going. Once again the price is probably fair. It is 25/1 bar.
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Main Bets
My first main bet is a 33/1 shot who finished fifth here last year and the firmer conditions should see him build on that. The man in question is Adrian Otaegui. The Spaniard has already won for me when he took down the Belgian Knockout and the firmness of this course should play right into his hands. He is a very solid driver and the extra length he gets out of the fairways will do him no harm. We saw in Belgium how good a putter he is too and at this price he is crying out to be backed.
Aaron Rai is steadily improving and he might feel that this is a good chance to pick up a victory and emulate Jordan Smith in coming from the Challenge Tour to win. We might have to wait a while for him to play his shots but when he finally does he is one of the best on the European Tour from tee to green so if he can get a few putts to drop he should be right there. Rai has top 10s in the other German event and in Scotland over the last month or so which means he’s in decent nick and he’s my second main bet here.
Outsiders
I’ve probably missed out on the prices on Julien Guerrier but having backed him for the better part of a month earlier in the season to little joy I’m not running the risk that he wins without my cash on him this week. Guerrier is one of the best in the field on par five scoring which will be huge with five of them on this course. He’s also in the top 10 of strokes gained off the tee and those two things combined should see him right into the mix over the four days here.
Jeff Winther is another one who scores well on the par fives. He also scores well on par threes too and having been very good from tee to green in France at the beginning of the month he is showing me that he is developing a very strong all-round game. He has seen Lucas Bjerregaard and Thorbjorn Olesen win on Tour this year which should inspire him to go close at some point. Statistics suggest it could be this week.
Jbe Kruger has been showing some decent form in Asia in recent times and I’ll take a punt on him at a crazy price here. He was runner up with my cash on him at the Lyoness Open last year and this track isn’t too dissimilar to that. He is strong as an ox from tee to green and so it is with the putter where he lives or dies. A few good weeks in Asia should have bumped up his confidence on the greens though and at 250/1 I’ll pay to see if he can stick it all together for four days.
Tips
Back A.Otaegui to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back A.Rai to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back J.Guerrier to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Winther to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 176.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back J.Kruger to win Porsche European Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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