The PGA Tour season ends this week when the top 30 in the FedEx Cup rankings head to Atlanta for the Tour Championship. Five men begin the week in control of their own destiny in pursuit of the $10 million bounty and the FedEx Cup title but around that there is the final tournament of the year to win too.
The field is loaded this week and it is mathematically possible for everyone in the tournament to win the FedEx Cup although Patton Kizzire as seed 30 needs an algebraic miracle to earn the bounty. Xander Schauffele defends the title he won last year while Justin Thomas is looking for back-to-back FedEx Cup wins.
Recent Winners
2017 – Xander Schauffele
2016 – Rory McIlroy
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bill Haas
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Tiger Woods
2008 – Vijay Singh
The Course
It is East Lake Country Club where the season concludes once again with the ball strikers set to come to the fore as ever. Recently the longer hitters have had a bit more of a say but with the conditions firm and fast this week we can eliminate that element as even the shorter hitters are going to get plenty from the short grass.
The course is a par 70 which measures 7,362 yards but the heat and humidity will make it play shorter. As with the name, there is a big lake in play on a number of holes. Poor putters can win here but generally you have to hit the greens here as scrambling is quite difficult. Rough is said to be 2.5 inches so you probably want to stay out of it!
The Field
All 30 men who are eligible for the tournament this week are teeing it up. Among those who are missing who can be considered big names are Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott and former champion Jordan Spieth.
New world number one Justin Rose heads the field in terms of the world ranking while Bryson DeChambeau leads the way in terms of the FedEx Cup points and if he wins the tournament he wins the $10m. Justin Rose, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas are also in control of their own destiny.
Market Leaders
We have a trio of favourites to win the tournament this week. Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy are all 9/1 to scoop the title and in the case of the first two the big bucks. Johnson has never been better than fifth here so he’s an easy swerve at the price while Rory never convinces me on firm tracks. Rose would offer up the best chance but the way he lost in Philadelphia two weeks ago does nothing to convince me that I want to be on at a single figure price.
Justin Thomas and Tiger Woods come next in the market at 12/1. Thomas arrives here with a wrist injury that more and more is starting to be made of which I don’t like so we can swerve him easily enough while Woods has contended a few times but hasn’t got the job done. I sense it will be another of those weeks for him here too.
Brooks Koepka is 14/1 to land the title this week but sixth is the best he’s done here in two outings. Clearly he is a much better player now but East Lake doesn’t suit his natural strengths so he could be fighting a few to get his nose over the line which isn’t ideal. If the Koepka of the US Open or the USPGA turns up though he’s the winner of that there is no doubt.
Rickie Fowler and Bryson DeChambeau are both 20/1 in the betting. Fowler is far too inconsistent to me and his recent injury concerns are a concern for us as well. DeChambeau could well be the one to beat as I’ll elaborate on below. It is 22/1 the remainder of the field in what looks like a cracking cast list.
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Main Bet
I’ll only have one main bet this week. I’m happy to pass over everyone at the head of the market until I get down to Bryson DeChambeau although I must admit if Francesco Molinari was in control of his own destiny or wasn’t in the Ryder Cup next week I would be all over him like a rash. He isn’t though and he is so I’ll pass him on.
Nobody hit the ball better than DeChambeau in the first two weeks of the play-offs as evidence by the fact he won both tournaments. I’m happy to write off his run in the BMW last time out a) because he was cream crackered and also because the course was soft and I don’t think he’s found out the chemical formula to match the mathematical equation in those conditions yet. We’re back to firm and fast here though and that should assist DeChambeau in his quest for Tour Championship and thus FedEx Cup glory.
Outsiders
Keegan Bradley outlasted the field in a long week in Philadelphia two weeks ago and it wouldn’t be the first time we have seen the BMW and Tour Championship double done. He has been striking the ball well for a while now and with the renewed confidence he will have taken with the putter from the win in the BMW he should continue to run hot. Bradley isn’t in control of his own destiny this week so he can just free roll a little and go low and see where it gets him. He’s too big to ignore at 50/1 despite his average record here.
Ball striking means just one thing. Kyle Stanley time again! Stanley can see off a few of these on his tee to green prowess alone. He led the field after the first round last year but faded fast. I don’t see the same happening if he arrives on the leaderboard this week though. He sits second on the Tour for ball striking this season with only Gary Woodland ahead of him. If he can warm the putter up he can do some damage here.
Tips
Back B.DeChambeau to win Tour Championship (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
Back K.Bradley to win Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
Back K.Stanley to win Tour Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-5)
Back him here:
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