The return fixtures in the Bundesliga conclude on Monday night with a clash between two sides who are looking to bank the three points for their need at opposite ends of the table in the German top flight, as Werder Bremen host Bayer Leverkusen in the Monday Night Football.
It has been an interesting weekend so far with the two heavyweights showcasing their credentials but mixed fortunes for the chasing pack while nobody has really done anything at the bottom end of the table. It will be intriguing to see if any of that changes here.
Werder Bremen
It is a little too easy to say that this is a big game for Werder Bremen, they all are at this stage. Their illustrious history in the Bundesliga is under threat as they return to action second from bottom in the table and in dire need of wins if they are to keep their 39-year stay in the top flight intact. Bremen begin the night five points adrift of the relegation play-off place and nine short of safety but they do have two games in hand, of which this is one.
There was little going for Bremen prior to the shutdown. Nobody have won fewer matches than them this season and neither has anyone scored fewer goals. If that wasn’t enough nobody has conceded more than them this term either, which doesn’t bode well when you consider most of the league have played two games more than them. Usually in this situation they would look to use home advantage to their favour but that never existed as they have only picked up five points from 11 home outings this term.
Bayer Leverkusen
None of those issues apply to Bayer Leverkusen. They are having a wonderful season and when the shutdown arrived they were arguably in the best form of anyone in the league. Leverkusen are not the highest scorers in the division but they don’t concede many. Only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig have conceded fewer than them so a defensive proficiency has served Peter Bosz’s charges very well indeed. A win here would put them right in the mix for the Champions League spots ahead of a tasty clash with Monchengladbach next weekend.
We have seen so far this weekend that form prior to the shutdown hasn’t counted for as much as we would like as gamblers but Leverkusen are a team who have won seven of their last nine Bundesliga clashes, a run which includes a 4-3 win over a classy Dortmund side, and I would rather have that sort of confidence than be a team waiting for a couple of months to end a losing streak. Victory here moves the visitors to within a point of fourth spot so even with no fans in the stadium they don’t lack for motivation.
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Team News
If things were not bad enough for Werder already they are going to have to do without some key individuals in this match. Creative talent Davy Klaasen is suspended while Claudio Pizarro is also missing. There is a doubt over defender Omer Toprak as well.
Bayer Leverkusen have not escaped the break unscathed either. Striker Kevin Volland is missing for this match, which is a blow, although they have shared the goals out fairly nicely this term it must be said. Importantly Kai Havertz is available.
Betting
While form before shutdown can only be used sparingly, it is hard to see anything but a Bayer Leverkusen win here. Their style is perfectly made for this sort of assignment. They are comfortable with the ball and look to retain possession at all times, and more importantly they have a strong goal threat in the form of the aforementioned Havertz, who has been in fantastic nick this season and who will be hoping to pick up where he left off.
Quotes of 8/11 on an away win seem fair to me but I’m going to get a little greedy here and add under 3.5 goals to the bet to boost the price. Leverkusen don’t score tons of goals and are missing a forward in Volland. Bremen are the lowest scorers in the league and are without two key cogs in their attacking wheel which isn’t going to help them on the goal front. I do expect behind closed doors to lead to higher scoring affairs overall but this may well be the exception to the rule. I’ll take a low scoring Leverkusen win.
Tips
Back Bayer Leverkusen to win & Under 3.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 2.80 with Coral
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