The second leg of the Florida Swing on the PGA Tour is the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the iconic Bay Hill Country Club. This is one of my favourite weeks on the tour and judging by the field it attracts the same can be said for the players too.
Rory McIlroy landed the title last year and he is back looking to defend it this time around. Even though one of the biggest tournaments of the season takes place next week a decent field tees it up here.
Recent Winners
2018 – Rory McIlroy
2017 – Marc Leishman
2016 – Jason Day
2015 – Matt Every
2014 – Matt Every
2013 – Tiger Woods
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Martin Laird
2010 – Ernie Els
2009 – Tiger Woods
The Course
Bay Hill Golf Club and Lodge hosts the tournament once again. It has been lengthened by 35 yards since last year so the par 72 track now stretches to 7,454 yards. The rough is said to be up a little this week with three inch rough on the extremities so there is going to be a bit more of a premium on accuracy this time around.
The course remains a second shot golf course since the widening of the fairways. You now need precise iron play and this is becoming a tournament where the scoring is getting lower and lower so putting is a major thing. McIlroy putted the life out of the course and the field here last year. The greens are only of average size though so scrambling could be another thing to keep on side.
The Field
The field was meant to include Tiger Woods but sadly he has pulled out with a neck issue but despite that some really big names will be on the tee on Thursday. Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose will head up the profile but the likes of Rickie Fowler, Jason Day and Bryson DeChambeau will aim to remain in focus.
They are not the only leading lights teeing it up this week, Hideki Matsuyama, former champion Marc Leishman and The Open winner Francesco Molinari are all in the field here too. Masters champion Patrick Reed, European star Tommy Fleetwood, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson complete a real star studded top end of the field here.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the 13/2 favourite to win the tournament this week. Often you would think twice about going at a defending champion but course form seems to stand up more here than in many places so there is no need to oppose him on those grounds. Whether you think there is value on a 13/2 poke in this company would be more the question. I don’t personally so he isn’t for me.
Justin Rose is an 11/1 shot to win this tournament. He should be suitably refreshed for the challenge having not seen the golf course since his missed cut in Saudi Arabia. I’m waiting for Fooch to be back on the bag before I get stuck into Rose again and while this is a tournament everyone wants to win for whose name it carries, I’d rather wait until the truly globally recognised events before I back him.
Brooks Koepka almost landed the Florida Swing opener at the Honda last week but was pipped at the post so there will be many happy to take the 12/1 on him this week. I’m not completely convinced this course is set up as well as some for him but he is a class act so I wouldn’t put anyone off him. The price isn’t for me though I have to say.
Rickie Fowler and Jason Day are both 14/1 in the market. Fowler was another touched off late on last week and he would look to have every chance to follow up with another decent run here. Day has a rotten record here apart from his win. I’m not completely convinced that he is on the top of his form so I’ll pass him on. Bryson DeChambeau is 16/1 to add his Dubai Desert Classic title to this one and given the quality of his game over the last 18 months or so he is hard to ignore. It is 28/1 bar.
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Main Bets
Tiger Woods is the only American to have won around here in the last 10 years so both my main bets this week are coming from Europe where Francesco Molinari is on a course absolutely made for him now that his putter knows how to cooperate. There are some huge events coming up which Molinari should be targeting so it was encouraging to see him run nicely in Mexico in the WGC recently. We saw last year that the Italian can compete at this level and at 33/1 I’ll back him to show it again.
Ian Poulter probably heads to Bay Hill in the form of his life having had a run of four top six finishes in a row this season. One or two of them have been on courses too long for him too. He is a Floridian these days so this is like a home game for him which is never a bad thing and I’m expecting decent things from the Englishman this week. His iron play and short game has been decent for quite some time as it goes. Once more here could see him land a punt at 50/1.
Outsiders
Si Woo Kim defends The Players next week but he can warm up for that title defence with a big week here too at a tasty price. His game is trending nicely with a fourth placed finish at Pebble Beach and a third place at the Genesis. He sits at fourth in the strokes gaining putting statistic on the PGA Tour which could be a big thing this week and given that we know he can perform in Florida I think he’s a leading runner in this tournament.
Michael Thompson is another player running in here in hot form. He has six top 20s over the course of the season with five of them coming in his last five events so it is almost a no brainer to take him at a three figure price. He is high up in plenty of the relevant statistics this week which is another positive and for someone putting so well you get the feeling a win can’t be a million miles away for him. At 100/1 I’ll pay to see if it comes this week.
Matt Every is also 100/1 this week and he’s inside the top 10 for total putting on the PGA Tour this term and hasn’t been outside the top 20 in any tournament he has entered this season. I’ve mentioned above how course form is a big thing this week and Every has plenty of it having won a couple of times on this track. You’d have to say bookmakers are taking a chance offering up a three figure price on a man who quite clearly adores it around here. That could look big come Sunday evening.
Tips
WON – Back F.Molinari to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back I.Poulter to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Every to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back S-W.Kim to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back M.Thompson to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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Another outstanding pick from the master. As they say on Eggheads Kev…..can anyone beat you!!