The final of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells takes place on Sunday night and after a damp squib of a couple of days with key withdrawals and things we will hopefully get a good finale to conclude the tournament with.
We are hoping for a classic between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the semi-final on Saturday but injury to the latter denied us of that so it would be nice for the event if the final is a pearler. It has the promise of being so.
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Dominic Thiem
Federer isn’t the only player who has benefitted from a withdrawal this week. Dominic Thiem received a bye in the quarter final when he was due to face Gael Monfils, who was forced to withdraw with an injury. That probably gave him the extra energy needed to come through a tough encounter with Milos Raonic in the semi-final but the way he hit the ball in that match suggests he is going nicely.
Surprisingly this is Thiem’s first Masters 1000 final away from Madrid and he will be eager to take his opportunity and join the select band of men to win a tournament of this kind, having previously lost to Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev in those two previous finals. With the clay season on the horizon, to take a win from here into it would really set his campaign up.
Roger Federer
The Indian Wells specialist Roger Federer will not have wanted to make the final without playing but he will know that it gives him a bit of an advantage heading into this concluding match. He was playing well enough heading into his walkover and played on Friday evening so I don’t think the extended break would cause any rust or anything so he should be primed for a real tilt at this final.
Federer always looks comfortable in these surroundings and he is going to play the clay court season this year so if he can take a Masters 1000 title into it with him he will be able to enjoy himself much more with his place at the o2 looking cosy enough. He is expected to win this title now but he is well used to being the favourite in the big matches.
Head-to-Head
These two men have met on four previous occasions and unlike many players, Thiem has a solid record against the great one. He is 2-2 from those encounters, although both men will know that both of Federer’s wins have come on a hard court. Thiem has beaten Federer on grass though so the Swiss star is susceptible and the Austrian will be well aware of that. That grass court match was their only previous three set tussle. The other matches have been won in straight sets. This is their first final.
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Betting
When these two last met in London at the end of last year, Thiem was visibly shattered from the season he had delivered but he looks as fresh as a daisy this week and I fancy he’ll lay down the sort of challenge he put up to Federer when he beat him in Stuttgart a few years ago. In these conditions you would expect the Swiss ace to play well so this should be a cracking final.
Federer has only lost serve once all week while Thiem has been protecting his serve quite nicely too so as long as the occasion doesn’t get to the Austrian then I’m expecting this one to be close and the sets to be long. With that in mind the over 22.5 games option looks the best way to play this finale in my eyes.
Tips
WON – Back Over 22.5 games for a 4/10 stake at 2.00 with Coral
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