The flagship event on the European Tour takes place this week when a seriously good field heads to Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship. If the stage and the event wasn’t enough it is the starting tournament in the European Ryder Cup point scoring which adds to the magnitude of the competition.
Francesco Molinari won this tournament last year on his way to landing the Claret Jug later in the campaign and he is here to look to defend the latest Rolex Series title. He is up against some of the world’s best this week though.
Recent Winners
2018 – Francesco Molinari
2017 – Alex Noren
2016 – Chris Wood
2015 – Byeong-Hun An
2014 – Rory McIlroy
2013 – Matteo Manassero
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Luke Donald
2010 – Simon Khan
2009 – Paul Casey
The Course
It is the West Course at Wentworth which is the venue for this tournament once again. The event has switched from May to September so we are going to see this course in all its glory now with the trees having more of an impact on sight lines and driving so accuracy is going to play a big part in this competition. There hasn’t been a lot of rain in the build up to the event so the rough is not likely to be too thick.
The course these days is a par 72 which measures 7,264 yards and should play fairly firm so a lower ball flight could be advantageous. You generally find the longer, purer drivers go best round here with the two par 5s to finish often playing a key role. Short game is another handy weapon since the greens have been redone, there are a number of run off areas and slopes now so the winner is likely to have to get up and down a few times.
The Field
What a field we have this week. It is headed by the star attraction Rory McIlroy but it also includes the last two winners of The Open in Shane Lowry and Francesco Molinari. European stars Jon Rahm, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose also add a real star quality to things. We also have PGA Tour stars teeing it up this week with Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland and Patrick Reed all in the field.
There are plenty of other tournament winners here too. Matt Fitzpatrick, Bernd Wiesberger and Alex Noren are all relentless winners at this level while recent players who have won events such as Thomas Pieters and Erik van Rooyen also tee it up. Ian Poulter, Danny Willett, Tyrrell Hatton and Andrew Johnston are just some of the Englishmen in the field who will be out to thrill the home crowds.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the favourite to win the title this week, but as we saw in the European Masters recently he is no certainty to win at this level even though he is the class act in the field. In saying that he is a former winner around here and should have won the title last year too so it is impossible to rule him out but in this field 6/1 doesn’t really interest me even allowing for the fact that he ticks many boxes.
Jon Rahm is the 11/1 second favourite to land what would probably be the biggest title of his career in his first crack at the Wentworth showpiece. That price looks a little on the skinny side too given that the majority of the big names in this field have a sizeable experience advantage over him. That being said, Rahm has a wonderful recent record down at European Tour level although this feels a degree or two above typical European level. He could win but I see nothing in his price.
Paul Casey is a much more interesting prospect at 14/1. He is a former winner round here and we saw in Germany a couple of weeks ago that he’s in decent nick when he waltzed off with the Porsche European Open title. His figures are only moderate around here since he won back in 2019 but he probably hasn’t arrived since then in the form he is currently carrying with him. If he wasn’t a bit skinny in this field I’d be all over Casey but the price is a turn off.
Justin Rose has never won around Wentworth which would be a surprise to many because his tee-to-green excellence should have rewarded him with a title by now you would think. He was second here in 2012 but only has one other top 10 in the last 10 years, albeit having not entered each event in that time. That is enough for me to swerve him at 16/1 but he’s another of those that if he does win it would surprise nobody. It is 20/1 bar the quartet.
Main Bets
Matt Wallace was my main bet last week and he was one that got away as over the weekend there was nobody better but a three over par opening round did too much damage for him to repair. Interestingly though had he shot just level par for that first 18 he would have made a play-off. He hasn’t played a lot of golf in recent times though so maybe he needed a spin to familiarise himself with his new caddy and get the swing in good order again. It was certainly that over the weekend and I think he’s a leading player here off the back of those final three rounds. Wallace is the fourth best putter on the European Tour this year so he should love the Wentworth dancefloors and with his long game in good order I expect another massive showing from him.
This is a course that you tend to find form players come to the fore on and there aren’t many who’ve been in better touch in 2019 than Bernd Wiesberger and he is another who should run incredibly hot this week. He sits at 26 in strokes gained tee-to-green on Tour this year but perhaps more importantly he ranks fourth for greens in regulation and if his long game is in that nick he’ll have no excuses on the greens this week. Wiesberger will be desperate to finally make his Ryder Cup debut next year and a good outing here will immediately give him every chance of being at Whistling Straits. He’s a tough too big at 40/1 so he’s my second main bet.
Outsiders
I’m chucking a few darts at this tournament as it is such a good field and a real quality event. Joost Luiten jumps out immediately with his long game in the sort of order that we are looking for. He ranks third in strokes gained tee-to-green on the Tour this year and sixth in GIR and they are two massive statistics this week. Luiten is another with a new caddy and his switch has had immediate effects on his ball striking. Nobody hit more greens than him in the KLM Open last week and a tie for tenth was the very worst he could have finished with the way he hit the ball. The greens are more pure at Wentworth and he’s been here before so if he can roll a few putts in he shouldn’t be far away.
Andrea Pavan is another who has an excellent tee-to-green game, with the real quality coming into the greens where he is sat at 13 on the Tour for that discipline. He showed in Germany recently that he can hold off charges from the very best when he did for Matt Fitzpatrick in a play-off in the BMW International Open and with an Italian coming out on top here last year he’ll no doubt take a lot of confidence from that. Pavan is a pure hitter of the ball and that gets rewarded here. Hopefully we’ll be financially better off as a result.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat broke the internet earlier in the week when footage emerged of him training without a top on but the Thai could well have been tuning up for a real crack at this tournament on a course which should suit him. Aphibarnrat has a decent record in England and the UK. His three spins in the British Masters have seen him finish in the top 20 each time while he has successive top 15 finishes in both the Dunhill Links and this tournament to his name, finishing fifth here last year. He has a good long game and his short game is decent enough as well. He seems to love playing in the UK and I expect another strong showing this week.
Finally I’ll take the other Italian who has burst onto the scene this year in Guido Migliozzi. He has already won twice this season and you don’t do that if you can’t play the game. I was getting to the stage where I was going to let him go after a poor run of form but his fifth placed finish in the Porsche event in Germany recently in a decent field got me interested again. He was the best putter in the field that week while the week before his long game was in good nick. In the Belgian Knockout which he won and the Scottish Open he was in the top five for greens hit so if he puts it all together he could have a big week.
Tips
Back M.Wallace to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Pavan to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back G.Migliozzi to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Wiesberger to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back J.Luiten to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Coral (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back K.Aphibarnrat to win BMW PGA Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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