The Houston Open returns to a new slot on the PGA Tour calendar this week having been forced to give up its pre-Masters date when the changes were made in the schedule across the pond. The event is usually held in April but now takes place in October.
Ian Poulter won the title in dramatic fashion the last time the event was played out, but he’s chosen the riches of the Italian Open this week so won’t be defending his title. That opens the door for someone else to claim the trophy and rewards with it.
Recent Winners
2018 – Ian Poulter
2017 – Russell Henley
2016 – Jim Herman
2015 – JB Holmes
2014 – Matt Jones
2013 – DA Points
2012 – Hunter Mahan
2011 – Phil Mickelson
2010 – Anthony Kim
2009 – Paul Casey
The Course
We are at the Golf Club of Houston for the final time this week. Usually when it was in its original position in the calendar the course would be set up to replicate the test faced at Augusta the following week ie firm and fast but those conditions won’t be possible at this time of year so it will be interesting to see what impact the move makes in that regard.
The rough on the par 72, 7,441 yard track is said to be much denser and juicier after recent Texan rain but with the greens playing a foot slower than in the spring they will be receptive. That suggests to me that there is more of an emphasis on accuracy this week although a hot putter on these large greens is never a bad thing. Indeed in the main the roll of honour is a who’s who of great putters.
The Field
I think we can safely say that this is one of the worst fields ever assembled for this tournament but with the Asia swing starting next week it is no surprise that the majority of the leading lights have all chosen to give this one a swerve. Given the riches on offer in Italy this week it could also be considered a surprise that Henrik Stenson heads up the field in Houston, but that is very much the case.
The rest of the field is made up of players who have something to prove even in lesser company or the younger brigade which are making a name for themselves. Those who are looking to get back on the ladder include Daniel Berger, Pat Perez and Russell Henley while Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Champ and Denny McCarthy head up the new era looking to continue their rise.
Market Leaders
Henrik Stenson is clearly the standout player in this field and he is 10/1 to waltz off with the tournament. I wouldn’t have put anyone off taking him had I not seen that he has had to change his trusted club, that 3 wood. He is so reliant on that club that it can’t be ideal that he has to switch this close to the tournament. He still has the class to win this but that is enough to make me look elsewhere.
Brian Harman is a 22/1 second favourite, which I guess underlines how competitive this tournament could be if Stenson doesn’t take it by the scruff of the neck. I always prefer Harman as an outsider or an underdog if I’m honest although if he is at it this week then you would think he would have the edge on most of these. I don’t feel comfortable taking Harman at this price though.
A trio of players are 25/1 this week. They are Daniel Berger, former champion Russell Henley and recent tournament winner Cameron Champ. I’ll come to Berger shortly but there is nothing not to like about Henley. Indeed course form probably makes him favourite this week but we should acknowledge the change in conditions. I’m not convinced this is a place where Champ will thrive.
Scottie Scheffler is 30/1 to win the tournament. Regular readers will know I’m a big fan of Scheffler but he has tailed off a little for my liking and one of his advantages recently has been nobody having course advantages but that isn’t the case here. I’m not saying Scheffler can’t win this week, or that I’d be surprised if he did win, but he isn’t really for me I have to say.
Main Bets
I’ve always been a huge Daniel Berger fan so I’m delighted to see him back in business and I actually think this is the week his career gets back to where it was before the injury issues surfaced. He began his season with a T23 in the Safeway and then advanced that to T18 in the Shriners last week and he is primed for a huge showing where in his pomp he was fifth on two occasions in a heck of a better field than the one he takes on this week. If you go through Berger’s best results they all have bermuda grass alongside their name. He is a machine on it so he has everything in place for a massive week here.
Pat Perez came from nowhere to post a T3 in Vegas last week and if there is one thing I’ve learnt about the popular American in my time as a golf punter it is when he is hot he stays hot for a few weeks then goes off the boil again. Perez is way above many of these in terms of class. He has had decent spins round here in the past Perez sits eighth in strokes gained putting so the short stick is firing nicely. The rest of his game joined it last week and assuming it arrives in Texas intact Perez is a massive runner at 33s.
Outsiders
I’ll chance my arm at three decent putters at acceptable prices. Brian Gay is slowly trending in the right direction. If I’m honest I wouldn’t look twice at Gay these days but a decent putter in a weak field should never be ignored and that is the case this week. I’m not going to paint him up to be anything that he isn’t and that his 66/1 price is insane value BUT he comes in here off the back of a T7 finish and he is rolling his rock very nicely. That alone puts him above most of these. I’ll pay to see if he can follow his mate Poulter into the winner’s circle at GC Houston.
Aaron Baddeley is renowned as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour and in fairness to him he has a decent enough record in the minor events so he should be in the staking plan this week. Again, the Australian has his limitations and you have to pick your weeks kindly with him but this might just be one such time. Putting is huge around here so having his short stick on our side is no bad thing. Baddeley has had a couple of fair efforts this season but last term he was T2 in Puerto Rico and T7 in the Corales and won the Barbasol in 2016 so at the second tier level he has a great record. This isn’t much better than that and he has a T15 here in the past and fourth here earlier in the decade. There’s enough reason to back him this week.
Every now and again weeks come around where Johnson Wagner is worth chancing and I think that has arisen this week. Last season he was second in greens in regulation and T18 in strokes gained putting. They are the box tickers this week so if he has that sort of form with him then he could run well. He lost a playoff to JB Holmes here in 2015 so he’s got previous around this place. I’ll have a go to see where he gets us at a three figure price.
Tips
Back D.Berger to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back B.Gay to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
VOID – Back P.Perez to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back A.Baddeley to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back J.Wagner to win Houston Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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