The PGA Tour returns from a week off when it heads to Mexico for the Mayakoba Classic, the latest leg of the campaign, which is already shaping up to be something quite exciting as the young guns threaten to take over.
Matt Kuchar made a bad name for himself at this event last year when he waltzed off with the title and giving his caddy barely a crumb of the prize money. He is back to defend the crown this week and will hope it is his golf which does the talking.
Recent Winners
2018 – Matt Kuchar
2017 – Patton Kizzire
2016 – Pat Perez
2015 – Graeme McDowell
2014 – Charley Hoffman
2013 – Harris English
2012 – John Huh
2011 – Johnson Wagner
2010 – Cameron Beckman
2009 – Mark Wilson
The Course
It is the El Camaleon Golf Club at the Mayakoba Resort in Mexico which hosts the tournament this week. This is a paradise for ball strikers with those who hit it clean but who can roll putts nicely having leading chances. One thing to factor into the equation on the par 70 which measures 7,017 yards is the wind. If that comes into play you want players who are comfortable in the breeze, as highlighted by the last few winners.
The other thing to note heading into the week is the build up to it has been all about one thing – rain. This course is saturated so you do not want to be leaving the fairways or the greens so get on the sweet ball strikers to tame this course. It is a recipe which works every year and shows no signs of changing anytime soon.
The Field
This is one of the weaker fields that has gone to Mexico but we’re getting towards the stage where a lot of the bigger hitters that aren’t over in South Africa this week are either biding their time for the Presidents Cup or winding their year down. One man who is doing neither though is Matt Kuchar. He is in the field looking to make a successful defence of his title but I think it is fair to say that Jason Day headlines the field.
There are a number of former champions in the field this week including Patton Kizzire and Graeme McDowell while the extremely talented youngster Viktor Hovland also has a tee time. Billy Horschel has made the trip across the border looking for honours as has Tony Finau. The crowds will all be for one man though – the Mexican star Abraham Ancer, who will hope to deliver in front of his own people.
Market Leaders
We have joint favourites of three this week and they are all 20/1 which highlights the competitive nature of the event. They are Matt Kuchar, Jason Day and Viktor Hovland. I’m going nowhere near Kuchar this week. I rarely do where defending champions are concerned but with the all fallout from his win last year and parting with just $5k out of his near $1.1m winnings he could encounter some grief. The fact Day is 20/1 in this field highlights where he is right now. Usually he’d be a quarter of that price. I like Hovland a lot and wouldn’t be surprised if he goes in but the price is probably right.
Tony Finau is next in the betting at 22/1 alongside the American star Billy Horschel. To be fair to Finau he could lead these a merry dance but if you backed him regularly he must do your brains in with the infrequency that he wins. Places are all well and good but at this price I’m chasing a strong chance of the win and I’m not sure it is here. The softening of the course might help him but I can’t take the price. I’d much rather be on Horschel but I did that over in Asia and never really looked like getting much joy from it. Once bitten twice shy me.
The star man Abraham Ancer is 28/1 to win his home tournament. He has a lot to look forward to with his Presidents Cup debut a matter of weeks away but this will surely be the biggest thing on his mind at present. There isn’t a whole lot not to like about him either in truth. He’s straight enough, putts well and twangs his irons nicely but pressure and expectation just does enough to put me off him this week. It is 30/1 bar.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week. You can’t look too far from Charles Howell III when you need a ball striker and it probably comes as no surprise that he has seven top 20s in his last nine starts around here. If anything he’s hit the ball better in 2018 and 2019 than he has done at any other stage of his career which should give him a lot of confidence getting off the flight for this tournament. He has two top 10s this season so that highlights that he still playing well and with tee to green accuracy and pure ball striking needed here I’m happy to be on Howell III here.
Danny Lee enjoyed the Asia swing with a second in South Korea and a top 10 in Japan and he heads to another place of comfort for him here this week too. His last four runs here have produced finishes of 3-WD-25-2 and you wouldn’t say he played particularly well for the last couple of years so that form really does have to be taken notice of. He is clearly playing a lot better this year and as a result he has to be on the bet slip this week at a very tasty 50/1 or so.
Outsiders
It is rare I can let this tournament go and not take Graeme McDowell to get the trophy back. He won this in 2016 and has already landed the Corales Puntacana Resort this year in similar conditions to what he will face here and has shown plenty of good signs since then too. McDowell is a specialist on these tracks where he doesn’t have to pound it and can bring his wedge and putting game into play. He has been here enough to know his way round like a book and has the confidence of having won here. He’s a big price for an outside bet this week.
Brian Stuard is another who relishes these respectable tests where his ball striking can come into play. I nearly landed a right old punt with him at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last season and I’ll give him a go again here. He was T4 in the Texas Open last season which showed he can go well in the wind and on tracks where accuracy and a clean hit is the order of the day. If he needed to show his form he did so at the Shriners where he was T4 on -20 which shows he can score and although T51 in Bermuda last time out doesn’t look great, all four rounds were under par. I think he’s a decent sleeper this week.
Another player who might be one of them is Peter Malnati, a man who went off the rails for 2-3 years but who looks to be coming back to some form which is handy because before he lost his way he had finishes of 15 and 10 which highlights his prowess on this track. That would have been in a much better field as well than the one he will tackle here. Malnati has a wonderful short game and putting stroke but it is the fact that he is eighth in strokes gained tee to green on Tour this year and 13th for strokes gained overall that catches my eye. If it all comes together for the duration we might just be rewarded here.
Tips
Back C.Howell III to win Mayakoba Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back D.Lee to win Mayakoba Classic (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with BetVictor (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back G.McDowell to win Mayakoba Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Stuard to win Mayakoba Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Malnati to win Mayakoba Classic (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
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