The penultimate event on the European Tour season sees the players who have qualified for the Final Series heading back to South Africa for the Nedbank Golf Challenge, what is always a fine tournament with a lot of riches on offer for those competing.
Lee Westwood took home the majority of those benefits last year when he picked up the title once again, and he will be looking to make a successful defence and head to the Tour final next week in good touch once again.
Recent Winners
2018 – Lee Westwood
2017 – Branden Grace
2016 – Alex Noren
2015 – Marc Leishman
2014 – Danny Willett
2013 – Thomas Bjorn
2012 – Martin Kaymer
2011 – Lee Westwood
2010 – Lee Westwood
2009 – Robert Allenby
The Course
The famous Gary Player Country Club hosts the tournament as ever this week. The Sun City track is a bit of a brute given that it is a par 72 which measures no less than 7,816 yards. That sounds pretty serious but we are at altitude this week so although the course is long it never plays to that sort of yardage, especially with conditions being firm and fast as always.
The course plays pretty tight and despite its long yardage it is accuracy which is the more important, especially greens in regulation. The greens here have plenty of slopes and false fronts so pinpoint iron play rarely goes unrewarded. Clearly it is easier to hit precise iron shots from the fairway so there is a real emphasis on the tee to green game. A warm putter is never a bad thing around here either.
The Field
It is open to debate whether the field here is stronger than the one in Turkey last week but with the final event of the season next week it is understandable that a lot of players who are eligible for this event have chosen not to bother with it. One man who has though is the defending champion Lee Westwood. Home star Louis Oosthuizen is in the field, as is compatriot Erik van Rooyen, who came close to winning in Turkey last week.
Former champion Alex Noren is also in the field as are the English trio Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Wallace. Henrik Stenson is another leading light in the world of golf who has a tee time this week while the Race to Dubai leader Bernd Wiesberger is also here. Joost Luiten and Thomas Pieters are other standouts in the field.
Market Leaders
It is the leading South African player Louis Oosthuizen who is the 8/1 market leader this week. His last six outings in this event have seen him with form of 14-7-11-9-8-3 so he is consistent around here but doesn’t win as often as we would want him to. That would be an obvious concern at the prices because if you are going to make anything you really need him to win. I’m not saying that he can’t or won’t but if he does so be it. He’s too short for me.
Tommy Fleetwood, Henrik Stenson and Matthew Fitzpatrick are the joint second favourites at 14/1. Fleetwood has never finished better than tenth here and doesn’t look like he’s in the form that is going to change that here. Fitzpatrick has only once broken the top 15 so that is a concern but Stenson has a fine record here. His last three runnings have seen him finish 4-2-8 so he can tame this beast, which is no surprise with his approach play. I’m not sure he’s in perfect form though.
Erik van Rooyen is an 18/1 poke to get the job done this week. He finished wonderfully well in Turkey last week, carding an eight under final round to make the playoff only to belt his opening tee shot into the middle of a bush and be out of contention in that before the other five teed off. He was way down the field on debut here last year which would be a concern. Others look better value.
Robert MacIntyre will tee off as a 22/1 shot on his debut in the tournament. He has the tee to green game to be a massive success here and he can roll his rock as well but I never like debutants here. This is a course where experience counts for a lot so already the Scot is at a disadvantage. I’m not saying he won’t win but again he’s a little short for the disadvantages that are ahead of him. It is 25/1 bar.
Main Bets
Thomas Pieters has quietly been a tee to green machine this season and I fancy that could serve him very well here. His length will definitely not be a hindrance to him and if he can keep finding the fairways and the greens then with his confidence he might just be a tough nut to crack this week. I was a little concerned that the altitude would be an issue but he actually led the field in strokes gained tee to green in the Omega European Masters so we don’t actually have that to worry about. He was also fifth in Mexico a couple of years ago, again a positive. Pieters has the confidence of winning the Czech Masters back in August and has stuck a couple of solid efforts in recently. I think he’s a solid punt this week.
Paul Waring is third on the European Tour this season in greens in regulation and inside the top 15 in strokes gained tee to green and he is in the middle of some nice form at the minute. He hasn’t been outside the top 30 in any event he has teed it up in since The Open and that includes a T8 in the WGC in China a couple of weeks ago and then just outside the top 15 in Turkey last week. If it wasn’t for a stone cold putter the man from Liverpool would surely have been in the winner’s circle having finished third in the Dunhill Links and seventh in Ireland. This course suits him nicely because if you look at the list of winners they are all ball strikers, some of whom are ordinary putters. I think he’s well worth a bet here.
Outsiders
I’ll throw a couple of darts at this thing too. Benjamin Hebert has finished second on the European Tour three times this season and his tee to green strength is one of the reasons for that. The latest runner up spot came last week in Turkey where in contention he played a nice round of golf but was found out a little in the playoff. He led the field is total strokes gained for the week which highlights how well his all-round game is at the minute. He was in the top for strokes gained on approach and second for greens in regulation which shows us how his iron play is going as well. It can only be a matter of time before this serial Challenge Tour winner lifts a trophy on the European Tour and at the price I can afford to see if it is this week.
Chris Paisley is another who is in decent form. He is one of the best putters on the European Tour and recently his long game has been finding the mark as well. He was eighth in France and fifth in Portugal recently and although he stunk the place out in Turkey last week, I think he is better on tighter and tougher courses so I expect a stronger showing here. Paisley has a win in South Africa in the past which might well spark him fully into life. He was ninth here last year and I expect a much improved showing. He’s a solid outside bet.
Tips
Back T.Pieters to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back P.Waring to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back B.Hebert to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
Back C.Paisley to win Nedbank Golf Challenge (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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