This is the big one, the Arc, but this year it has attracted an uncharacteristically small field with just the 12 lining up for this Group 1 over a mile and a half. That’s the smallest field in over a decade and it gives the outstanding Enable a great chance to win this race for the 3rd year on the trot.
She’s going to be tough to beat, the stats speak for themselves. A winner of the Arc for the last 2 years, unbeaten in 12 runs with 10 of those being Group 1’s. Looking at the ‘without Enable’ market is probably the best way to go from a punting perspective although there’s a small chance we may see a shock.
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So, what of her rivals? Aiden O’Brien has 2 strong challengers in the 3 year old Japan and the 4 year old filly Magical. The former has won his last 3 including the Group 1 Juddmonte last time out. He’s the ride of Ryan Moore whilst Donnacha O’Brien takes the ride on Magical, a filly who has top class form and has twice been runner up to Enable this season. They are both hard to dismiss but their prices without the favourite are a bit skinny, given the opposition.
Sottsass is the leading French challenger according to the market and that’s based on the fact he’s won his last 3 including the Prix Du Jockey Club. One asset he definitely has is a good turn of foot but I’m not sure that’ll be enough on his first try against the older horses. Ghaiyyath is Godolphin’s representative and he won a German Group 1 by 14 lengths last time out but previous to that was turned over at odds on in the Prix Ganay. It’s the winner of the Ganay where our bet comes from.
Waldgeist is that horse and, at the prices, is the value. He’s ridden by a jockey in form, he won 4 of the 7 races held at Longchamp on Saturday but there’s much more to the selection’s chances than that. He’s a winner of 8 of his 20 career starts, but look more closely, you can see it’s his home country of France where he thrives. On 7 starts outside of France, he’s won none yet on home turf, he’s won 6 of his last 7 with his only defeat when less than 2 lengths 4th in this last year. That day, he had a poor draw and didn’t get the best of runs so, in the circumstances, ran a cracker. Arguably, he’s a better horse this time around and his RPR’s back that up. He’s won 2 of his 4 starts; the aforementioned Prix Ganay and, last time out, the Prix Foy which is a race he won en route to a crack at this 12 months ago. His other 2 runs have both been at Ascot where he finished 3rd on both occasions; it’s pretty evident that it’s not his track having also been turned over at odds on a year before that. Back on home soil, he’s the pick should the favourite fail to fire.
WON – Back Waldgeist (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
WON – Back Waldgeist (e/w) in the ‘w/o Enable market’ for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.50 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)