As the dust settles on a quite amazing first major of the year, the PGA Tour is back up and running on Thursday when it stages the RBC Heritage, one of the more popular events on the circuit and one which is sure to be extremely competitive once again.
Satoshi Kodaira stunned the field to win this tournament last year and he will be out to defend the title but a pretty strong cast list are coming out to oppose him on what looks like an extremely competitive week.
Recent Winners
2018 – Satoshi Kodaira
2017 – Wesley Bryan
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Jim Furyk
2014 – Matt Kuchar
2013 – Graeme McDowell
2012 – Carl Pettersson
2011 – Brandt Snedeker
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Brian Gay
The Course
Harbour Town Golf Links is the venue for the tournament once again. The track is a par 71 which measures 7,099 yards so it is far from the toughest golf course length wise. If you look at the list of winners above there aren’t many out and out bombers on there, there aren’t any actually, and that might provide a bit of a clue for what we’re looking for here.
Accuracy is very much the order of the day this week. There are an inordinate amount of bunkers and 12 water hazards on the course so complete control of the golf ball is the order of the day. These are some of the smallest greens you’ll find anywhere on the Tour so having good scramblers on your side is absolutely essential. The course is on the coast as the name suggests so ignore anyone who isn’t good in the wind.
The Field
Considering it was The Masters last week there is a decent field on show this week it must be said. It is led by Dustin Johnson, who is here on a sponsor requirement but heads the field nevertheless. The Champion Golfer of the Year, Francesco Molinari, and regular Tour winners Bryson DeChambeau, Matt Kuchar and Webb Simpson are all in the field as well.
Jordan Spieth got plenty of attention last week and with a tee time this week he’ll get a lot more. Xander Schauffele was runner up at Augusta and he’s also in the field here. English trio Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Kuchar and Ian Poulter also tee it up this week as does the defending champion Satoshi Kodaira.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson is the tournament favourite at 8/1. He was also in the group a shot behind Tiger Woods last week. So he’s in decent touch but I can’t be on anyone who I’m not convinced is hungry to win here. I’m almost certain he would have his feet up at home with Paulina had it not been for a sponsor commitment that he has to honour. That doesn’t mean he can’t win but the course negates his strengths and as such his price is terrible.
When I heard that Francesco Molinari was in the field this week I was getting the savings book ready for a decent wager on the Italian but then last week happened and the confidence has left me a little. I’m not saying he can’t win but at 16/1 I want everything in position and you’ve just got to think a hangover from Sunday is inevitable. That puts me off him now.
Bryson DeChambeau has a wonderful record around here and is 18/1 off the back of that. He actually would have enjoyed Sunday with a hole-in-one on the last of the par 3s. That makes him almost attractive but then when you look at the key stats the mouse wheel almost falls off looking for him which is a concern. I’m a big believer in past results invoking good golf but I often want more than 18/1 to get involved. As such he’s swerved here.
Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay both led at different points on Sunday and they begin this week at 20/1 to win the tournament. I don’t think Sunday would have taken a lot out of Cantlay because he was never really going to shoot the right number so he could be dangerous here while Schauffele might have the inevitable comedown to get over. I’ll tentatively pass both over though in the search for a better price.
[the_ad_group id=”3624″]
Main Bets
With this being the only tournament this week I’ll allow myself three main bets, especially as I struggled to whittle my five main contenders down to three let alone any lower. The first main bet is no surprise as it is Jim Furyk, a man who I was convinced will win soon before The Masters and given that he has already won twice around here there is plenty of evidence to suggest that it could be this week. He heads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and sits sixth in scrambling. Furyk was second at Sawgrass recently and has been in the top 25 is six of his last seven tournaments so he is a man in form and fits this track like a glove. At 33/1 he’s an obvious bet.
Si Woo Kim should have won this tournament last year before a final round collapse saw him end up in a play-off with Kodaira which he eventually lost. I’m prepared to take him to make up for that here though. He has played pretty well in the main this season. Kim was fourth in the Texas Open a couple of weeks ago and scored very nicely over the weekend at Augusta having come third at Riviera earlier in the campaign. Kim is in the top 20 for scrambling this season so if he keeps it in play off the tee, and he should do given that he won’t hit many drivers, he can be a big factor here.
Graeme McDowell is another man who has tasted success around this track and having won in the Dominican Republic recently it makes sense to take him here too. Gmac followed up that win with a top 10 in San Antonio a couple of weeks ago and it is never a bad thing for motivation for a golfer to be watching The Masters at home as it makes them determined to get on the board and get back there. McDowell has the ideal game for this course. He’s generally straight off the tee and sits in the top 20 in the scrambling statistic. He shouldn’t be 50/1 on this course.
Outsiders
I’ll chance a couple of outsiders here as well with the first of those also a former winner around here, albeit back in the day. That is Aaron Baddeley who sits third on the scrambling stats and top 10s in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic highlights that he can play in the wind. If he keeps it in play off the tee then he has all the attributes to run hot once again here. With three top 10s and solid efforts at Bay Hill and San Antonio behind him, he’s in good touch and looks a big price.
Statistically Brian Stuard looks a massive price at three figures this week. He has previously finished fifth around here which bodes well. Stuard is ranked 16 for fairways hit on Tour heading into the week and he is 19 in scrambling so if he plays to that ability he should go well. He’s in decent form too having finished fourth in the Texas Open as well as putting up top 20s in The Honda Classic and at the Valspar Championship. He actually looks a crazy price if he has maintained his form over the week off.
Tips
Back J.Furyk to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back S-W.Kim to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back G.McDowell to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Baddeley to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back B.Stuard to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2019
