The European Tour stages its most controversial tournament for a good while this week when it heads to Saudi Arabia for the first time, for the inaugural Saudi International, an event which has a world class field in a less than desired setting.
Although the prize pool is quite modest, the Kingdom have been spending big to get the biggest names in the world to turn a blind eye to the shambles going on in the country and tee it up in their event this week.
The Course
As ever when new events crop up we don’t know massively what to expect. It is the Royal Greens Golf and Country Club that stages the tournament this week. It is said to be a par 70 which measures 7,010 yards although there are some doubts over whether that is the correct yardage.
The one thing that we do know for sure is that the course is on the coast with fairways of average width and slowish greens to accommodate for the potential of the wind to blow. The rough is fairly thick so there could be a premium on accuracy, although in this part of the world it would be a surprise if it doesn’t turn into a putting contest, unless the wind is significant.
The Field
Credit to Paul Casey who has shunned this tournament, but among those getting a nice pay day regardless of their performance are the world number one Justin Rose, American trio of Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau and another man from across the pond in Masters champion Patrick Reed.
Another man with a green jacket to his name is in the field this week in Sergio Garcia, while leading English pair Ian Poulter and Matt Wallace also have a tee off time. Haotong Li is another superstar in the field and he’ll be looking for a bit more luck than he had in Dubai last week, where he got a very questionable ruling.
Market Leaders
The two winners from last week share favouritism this week as Justin Rose and Bryson DeChambeau head into the event as 13/2 joint favourites. You would have to say both men won very tidily indeed and preference would be given to the American given that Rose has had to endure a monster journey to make it here. They are both plenty short enough for my liking however so I’ll be looking elsewhere.
Dustin Johnson is a bit bigger than the main two protagonists at 8/1. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I’m not convinced that his game is in perfect form and I’m not convinced this is the place that is going to bring it back either. I would actually favour Brooks Koepka at 10/1 if I was taking a short price. At least we know he is comfortable in the wind and performs well in it.
Sergio Garcia is another player who is extremely proficient in the wind and with his strength being with the long clubs off the tee there is a case that despite being 14/1, he could be the leading contender heading into the tournament. I just have a concern about whether the putter will hold up, but nobody has an advantage of knowing the greens which might help him.
Patrick Reed is another man who is very comfortable in the wind and at 20/1 he could be a big price this week. In saying that though, he has done precious little since he won The Masters, so you would be taking a massive leap of faith if you was to back him. He’ll come good again eventually though so he should be respected even if you are not putting your hard earned on him. It is 25/1 bar those named.
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Main Bets
Ian Poulter has been in wonderful form in the desert so far and I fancy the extra breeze might help him to the title this week. We all know that Poulter thrives in the links like conditions and given that he is clearly hitting the ball remarkably well to have finished sixth in Abu Dhabi and third in Dubai. In those tournaments he was in the top 20 in fairways hit in Abu Dhabi and only Matthew Southgate hit more than him last week. They say you need to play this course from the fairway and that is what Poulter will be doing. His putter looks red hot so he should go very close here.
Haotong Li ended up just outside the top 10 last week but he was right in it until a ridiculous two-shot penalty was applied to him so I fancy the Chinese player to go well here. We’ve seen in The Open in the past that he can handle links conditions and his top 10 in the Dunhill Links last year reinforces that. He is a solid driver of the ball and if his putter stays useful then he too can have a big week here. He could set the standard to beat if that putter cooperates.
Outsiders
Eddie Pepperell is always a favourite of mine in links conditions and I won’t desert him here. He plays desert golf well as we saw when he won in Qatar last year and while he might not be quite up to that standard at the minute he might bypass half of those field just in his comfort in the conditions alone. Pepperell showed when he won the British Masters in pretty windy conditions that he is comfortable in the breeze. I fancy that will be a big thing this week and at 70/1 he’s entitled to be a leading candidate.
Soren Kjeldsen finished fifth in Abu Dhabi which caught my eye because those courses were a bit long for him but this one doesn’t appear to be. There are only two par 5s on this track and one of those is going to be a three shotter for everyone in the field so the Dane doesn’t lose anything with a lack of length off the tee. His game looks in good order though and we know he is another one who doesn’t back down when the wind blows so I’m expecting a decent event from the Danish veteran.
Matthew Southgate has a terrific links record and he is also one of the more accurate drivers on the European Tour so it stands to reason that he should go well this week. Admittedly we will need his putter to cooperate but if the wind hampers a large majority of the field then that will be to Southgate’s advantage. Another thing he has going for him is nobody has any prior knowledge to the green layouts so everyone is in the same boat from a putting point of view. With that in mind the 200/1 on the Englishman is far too big.
Tips
PLACED – Back I.Poulter to win Saudi International (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
WON – Back H.Li to win Saudi International (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
Back E.Pepperell to win Saudi International (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 71.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
Back S.Kjeldsen to win Saudi International (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 111.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back M.Southgate to win Saudi International (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-6)
Back them here:
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