The PGA Tour event this week is at a popular stop as Jack Nicklaus hosts The Memorial at Muirfield Village, a track that is steeped in history but that is still pretty difficult to score on so we are going to see the leading lights of the game really tested here.
Bryson DeChambeau passed the test last year and kick started an amazing campaign for himself by winning this tournament and he will be out to defend his title successfully but there is a proper field opposing him this time around.
Recent Winners
2018 – Bryson DeChambeau
2017 – Jason Dufner
2016 – William McGirt
2015 – David Lingmerth
2014 – Hideki Matsuyama
2013 – Matt Kuchar
2012 – Tiger Woods
2011 – Steve Stricker
2010 – Justin Rose
2009 – Tiger Woods
The Course
This is a Jack Nicklaus course and that means that it is a second shot golf course with the real test this week coming in the accuracy of the second shots. If there is an easiest on this track it comes off the tee where the fairways are generous but miss these greens and you have your work cut out to make par given the hazardous bunkers and drop off areas around the putting surfaces.
The course is a par 72 which measures 7,392 yards which isn’t an overly long track by modern standards. There is a strong threat of rain on Thursday though which will make it play to that yardage so there might be something of an advantage for those who can smack it a little further off the tee but ultimately the test is the same for everyone.
The Field
Two men jump off the page at us when we look at the field with those being Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods but they are not the only standout players on show by any means. Justin Thomas makes his return from injury while former winners Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar and Jason Dufner are in the field as well, as is the popular Rickie Fowler.
Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama bring an international flavour to proceedings while Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth add further top class talent to the competitiveness of the tournament here. Phil Mickelson is also in the field looking for another decent win in his illustrious career so this is going to take a fair bit of winning this week.
Market Leaders
It is Rory McIlroy who is the 9/1 favourite to walk off with a second title of the year. I wouldn’t necessarily say I have a problem with that but I wonder if his form has dropped off a little too much since he won The Players back in March. Some big events since then that you would have expected him to feature prominently in he has failed to do so and that has to be considered a concern when taking a single figure price here.
Tiger Woods comes second in the betting at a best price of 15/1 although in the main he is only 12/1. If the man who won The Masters turns up here he could lead this lot a merry dance but if the one who played the PGA is here this will be a struggle even for a man as great as Tiger Woods. That doubt is more than enough to put me off him at a relatively skinny price given the quality of the field on show this week.
Patrick Cantlay is a third favourite at 16/1. That feels a little short to me as I would call this an upper level PGA Tour event and we are still waiting for him to make a breakthrough at that level. The course matches up to a lot of his strengths but when I scoured the field Cantlay didn’t jump out at me as a third favourite and I can’t really get that out of my mind. If he wins so be it but I’ll stand by my thoughts that he’s too short.
Justin Rose and Justin Thomas come next in the betting at 18/1. The latter is easy to pass over on his return from injury while the former will have to make the transition to a new caddy again after his regular one has been ordered to rest up. I say new, he has used him before but the whole upheaval isn’t ideal I don’t think. Both are great players but this isn’t the week to be on them I don’t believe.
Main Bets
Jordan Spieth is coming good again and I want to get on him before his price completely disintegrates and given that a number of market leaders are a few points shorter than I would want them to be in a field this competitive we have to take a chance on players who are fair prices for our main bets rather than special standout ones. Spieth has led the field in putting in both the USPGA and the Charles Schwab where he registered top 10 finishes on both occasions. The rest of his game will soon pick up the confidence from that and with freedom off the tee here to allow his weakness with the driver to not hamper him too much he should be competitive once again. When he is back in the winning habit he’ll be going off half this price again so I’ll jump on now and hope I’ve got the right week.
Adam Scott has to be laid out for this course. He is a tee to green monster and that is so much of the test this week. In the past he would have been hampered or disadvantaged scoring wise on the greens but these days he is one of the best putters on the Tour statistically. That makes him a very dangerous man this week and having tamed Bethpage for much of the USPGA we know he is hitting the ball well. Everyone is motivated to win here but Scott maybe more so having yet to win this term. He could well put that right here.
Outsiders
Three outsiders have caught my eye. Given how close he keeps on going when my money has been on him I have to keep on backing Jim Furyk at the minute and at 80/1 on a track which suits his strengths I’m happy to do that here. He was right in the mix around Colonial last week before a horror three holes on the final nine cost him dearly but I’ll put that behind me and go with him again as I’m convinced there is a win in him before the season is out. He never leaves the fairways, rarely misses the greens so if he holes putts the green light is on.
Kyle Stanley is another ball striking machine. To be fair he has been pony for a lot of this season but generally his better efforts come in this part of the year and I’m backing that to happen here. He showed some signs of life at Quail Hollow recently which bodes well for here and with his tee to green game being his strength he shouldn’t be disadvantaged around here in any way. Stanley’s last four outings here read 3-74-6-2 so he likes the track and if that Wells Fargo effort was a sign of his game coming back he’ll go well again.
Corey Conners sits just outside the top 10 in strokes gained into the greens on the PGA Tour and that should count for something this week so at 150/1 I can’t resist a little dabble on him either. He has already won this season which is never a bad thing so how he’s going off at a three figure price anyway I’ve no idea. Admittedly he lacks a spin round here which can be a negative but even so, he has the game to be dangerous and at the price I’m lured in.
Tips
PLACED – Back J.Spieth to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back K.Stanley to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back C.Conners to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back them here:
PLACED – Back A.Scott to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back J.Furyk to win The Memorial (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with Betway (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
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