There is only one tournament on the major tours this week which comes on the PGA Tour where the Wyndham Championship is the competition in focus. This is the final event of the regular season so it is the last chance for players to get themselves into the play-off places for next week. It is also a last chance to keep their cards for those who haven’t yet done so.
That makes it a competitive week for a number of reasons, something Brandt Snedeker used to his advantage 12 months ago when he strolled off with the title for the second time. He defends against a field all wanting different things.
Recent Winners
2018 – Brandt Snedeker
2017 – Henrik Stenson
2016 – Si Woo Kim
2015 – Davis Love III
2014 – Camilo Villegas
2013 – Patrick Reed
2012 – Sergio Garcia
2011 – Webb Simpson
2010 – Arjun Atwal
2009 – Ryan Moore
The Course
Sedgefield Country Club is yet again the host track this week. The course is still a par 70 which measures 7,127 yards which highlights what the roll of honour suggests, that you don’t need to bomb it everywhere to get over the line and win this tournament. This is more a test of accuracy, particularly with the irons, as many Donald Ross designs are.
Rain is forecast throughout the tournament so the course is likely to play slightly longer than normal and will certainly be soft so rather than greens in regulation, the key statistic might just be the proximity to the hole here. These greens are not necessarily the biggest on the Tour so by and large scrambling statistics will be high for the winner. There are some poor putters on the list of winners so we shouldn’t necessarily rule them out.
The Field
Given that it is the start of the play-offs next week and we’ve just had a major championship and a WGC over the last fortnight, it goes without saying in many ways that this is not the strongest field in the world. Former winner and local man Webb Simpson is the headline act which probably highlights where we are at this week. Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed add a top class tough to the line up.
Defending champion Brandt Snedeker is in the field this week while last week’s winner Collin Morikawa also tees it up. Martin Kaymer is here looking to take advantage of a final chance to keep hold of his PGA Tour card while Billy Horschel, Matthew Wolff and Paul Casey will all be looking to head into the postseason off the back of a victory.
Market Leaders
Webb Simpson is a general 9/1 favourite to win the tournament this week and while I hate the price, which is going to put me off backing him, you’d have to suggest that he ticks a lot of the boxes required to win here, especially having already won here. He was second in Memphis last week behind the runaway train that was Brooks Koepka, he is a tee-to-green animal and his scrambling stats are among the best on the PGA Tour this season. The only thing he hasn’t done in recent times is win. If he wins here, as he really should, then so be it but I can’t be on at this price.
Hideki Matsuyama is the second favourite to land the title. You can get plenty of 14/1 if you like him this week. He might be rounding into a little bit of form but based on what he’s shown in recent times he is too short for me to look seriously at, although I acknowledge that this isn’t the best field and the Japanese star is more than capable of dominating it. He is another one who if he wins so be it but I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing him at this price.
Collin Morikawa and Jordan Spieth come next in the betting at 18/1. I can immediately rule out the former as I don’t take the winner of the previous tournament, and that is especially the case when that player has won for the first time. Spieth was high up on my shortlist but I’m always convinced this isn’t the tournament for playing short priced and at 18/1 the juice has gone from Spieth so neither of these are for me either. It is 22/1 bar those named.
Main Bets
Those who have followed me all year will know I’m a huge Chez Reavie fan and given that this is probably the last chance I get to back him this season I’m going to take full advantage of it. Reavie has already won the Charles Schwab Challenge for me this season when he lapped the field and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if he does something similar here too because this course shapes up perfectly for him. His tee-to-green game is extremely strong and he’s one of the better scramblers around at the minute. His putting has improved being condition this season hence why he has won. He’s also lost a play-off for me this year too so I’m pretty good at getting him at the right time and I fancy this could be the chance to do so again here.
Lucas Glover ticks nearly every statistic box I crave this week. He is T8 in par 3 scoring, 16 in proximity to the hole, 4 in scrambling and T5 in par 4 scoring. They are everything we are looking for this week and with him not exactly erratic off the tee he has to have a leading chance. He has been in excellent form throughout the year and will put a W next to his name eventually. He has been in the top 20 in each of his last three tournaments, finishing with a 62 in one of them. He has 15 top 20 finishes this season which is pretty incredible. Given that he’s as good a statistical match as I’ve seen for a while, he has to be my second main bet.
Outsiders
Abraham Ancer has been on my radar for a while and I’ve steadily been chasing him over the last few weeks and the way he strikes the ball I can’t resist him this week. He doesn’t really have a weakness to his game and while his statistics aren’t high in the key categories we have to acknowledge that this is his first real campaign in the very biggest tournaments which will dilute that somewhat. Ancer is a class act and when he wins he’ll break the dam down and plenty will come. He won in Australia at the end of last year so he can get over the line and this could be an ideal chance to do it on the PGA Tour.
Corey Conners is another one who has been on my radar for a while and he’s very much on it again given that he leads the Tour in proximity to the hole and sits T8 in par three scoring. When you think there is double the amount of them this week as there are par fives that is a relevant statistic. The Canadian is a second shot player so on a course which is built for that part of the game it makes sense to cover him at a three figure price.
Luke Donald is a fromer runner up round here and while he has been in the doldrums recently, there have been signs this season that he is coming back to something like he was. He’ll have plenty of motivation this week as it could be his final Stateside appearance of the year unless he has a good one. In each of his last two outings Donald was going along nicely at the halfway mark but couldn’t get it done over the weekend. If he can put that right we might see some return for our 200/1 investment.
Tips
Back C.Reavie to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back C.Conners to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Donald to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Sky Bet (1/5 1-8)
Back L.Glover to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 41.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back A.Ancer to win Wyndham Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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