The delayed UEFA Nations League finals begin on Wednesday evening when the host nations and European champions Italy take on Spain in a second semi-final between the two sides in three months when they meet in Milan.
Italy won that Euro 2020 semi-final between the two on penalties and went on to win the final. They will be out for a quick trophy double here but Spain will have revenge in their sights so this should be a cracking contest, one where the winner progresses to Sunday’s final.
Italy
The Italians haven’t been at their very best since they won Euro 2020 back in July but this insane unbeaten run that they have put together remains intact with a couple of draws in their World Cup qualifiers as well as an emphatic win over Lithuania last time out. Italy are not the first side to struggle after winning a major tournament and they won’t be the last, but they will want to show up and be counted in this match on home soil.
To be fair to the Italians, a draw in Switzerland wasn’t necessarily a bad result but when you do win a major tournament there is a lot more expectation on a side. That expectation will remain here because they are on home soil but this is a team who seemingly never lose under Roberto Mancini and that will give them a lot of confidence heading into this match. They do have a few injuries to deal with going into these matches though which isn’t ideal.
Spain
There weren’t a whole lot of takers for Spain heading into the Euros. Luis Enrique left all the Real Madrid players out of his squad and it didn’t look the strongest but they casually made the semi-final before losing out to their opponents in this match in a penalty shootout. Since then things have been a little up and down with a defeat to Sweden before two comfortable but not completely convincing wins in the World Cup qualifiers in the last international break.
One issue Enrique is going to have to deal with here is his Barcelona players come here without much confidence after they have gone through a wretched run in La Liga. Another issue is that he is having to deal with a lot of injuries and although Spain controlled large parts of that semi-final at Wembley three months ago, they were unable to win with a lack of goals in big matches proving costly. You sense if they are going to win this one then they will need their defence to be at its best.
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Team News
Roberto Mancini is going to be without a few players for this semi-final with Ciro Immobile and Andrea Belotti injured from his front line while Matteo Pessina, Rafael Taloi and Leonardo Spinazzola also missing. Former Everton man Moises Kean could lead the line.
Things are even worse for Luis Enrique. He is going to be without Alvaro Morata, Gerard Moreno, Pedri, Marcos Llorente, Rodrigo, Brais Mendez, Dani Olmo and Thiago Alcantara all of whom are injured. That leaves them light in the forward area.
Betting
Spain might have been able to do with one or two of those injured players in each position but the accumulation of all of them might be a little too much for them to handle. The only reason I say that is because they are left without a genuine number nine and their experienced midfielders in the squad are more suited to the holding role rather than the creative ones. This would be quite the tactical masterclass from Luis Enrique were Spain to win this.
Italy were probably second best in that Euro 2020 semi-final but when you look at their injuries, although the injuries to Immobile, Bellotti and Spinazzola in particular aren’t ideal, one was the backup for Bellotti and the other was already injured ahead of that game. Even Pessina only came off the bench for the Azzurri in that match so although not having Immobile isn’t ideal, the Italian injuries don’t look nearly as impactful as the Spanish ones. When you throw in home advantage, the confidence of winning a trophy and extending their unbeaten run since these two last met, Italy have to be the bet, although with this being a semi-final I will ensure I have plenty of draw cover.
Tips
Back Italy (-0.25AH) to beat Spain for a 3/10 stake at 1.96 with Bet365
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