The penultimate match day in this season of the UEFA Nations League concludes with a very busy and potentially very dramatic day of action on Sunday as most of the continent are back in action looking for three points.
We have places in the semi-finals as well as promotion and relegation issues at stake over the course of what is actually a long day of action with three kick off times, one where all of the Home Nations are on show.
League A
The action in the top league comes from Group 1 and Group 2on Sunday. It starts in Group 1 with the early kick off between the bottom two in the section as the Netherlands host Bosnia-Herzegovina with the latter knowing they will be relegated if they lose the match. Later in the evening the top two collide in Reggio Emilia when Italy look to regain top spot from Poland in what should be one of the best matches on the day.
There is a three-way battle for top spot going on in Group 2 and Belgium can put England out of reach if they can beat Gareth Southgate’s men in Leuven but England will go above the leaders if they win. Denmark will be looking to capitalise on whatever happens in that match when they host an Iceland side who may still be coming to terms with their failure to reach Euro 2020 in heartbreaking circumstances on Thursday evening.
League B
There is a full set of matches across the four groups in League B and it starts with the early kick off when two teams who were celebrating qualification for Euro 2020 over the weekend meet in Trnava when Slovakia host a Scotland side who will be promoted to the top league if they win the contest. Scotland will also secure promotion if they match the Czech Republic result. The Czechs play host to Israel needing to win to keep their promotion hopes alive. There is also early action in Group 4 where Wales and Finland will continue their battle for promotion. Wales host the Republic of Ireland while Finland make the trip to an improving Bulgaria side.
The other early action comes from Group 3 where Turkey will look to keep their hopes of avoiding relegation alive when they a Russia team who are two wins from dining at the top table once again. The later contest sees Hungary looking to crown their Euro 2020 qualification when they host a Serbia side who will be feeling very different about their Thursday outcome after they were unable to get the better of Scotland and succumbed on penalties. The late action comes in Group 1 where Austria and Norway head the way. Austria host Northern Ireland who will be out to overcome the disappointment of not making Euro 2020 while Norway have seen their trip to Romania cancelled.
League C
We have three groups playing out on Sunday in League C and the action starts early in the afternoon when North Macedonia look to retain top spot in Group 2 and build on their qualification for the Euros when they host Estonia while in the other match later in the afternoon Georgia host Armenia. The action in Group 4 comes along pretty early in the piece as well. This group sees Belarus surprisingly leading the way. They host second placed Lithuania while Albania welcome Kazakhstan to Tirana in the other match.
The late games in this league come from Group 3 where Slovenia and Greece are the pacesetters. Slovenia are on top and could actually win the group if they can pick up a win over Kosovo. They would only secure promotion should they win and Greece fail to win their match away to Moldova but should Slovenia slip up and Greece win it will be them who head into the last group match between the two on Wednesday night in pole position to get promoted.
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Betting
Whenever a card of this size comes along the tricky part is keeping bets down to a reasonable number. There are three bets that I like here. The first of those comes in Cardiff where I expect Wales to remain in control of their group when they host a Republic of Ireland side who are going backwards so fast it is untrue. They just seem to have no ability to score goals and the withdrawals of Aaron Connolly and Callum Robinson from their squad and Alan Browne being ruled out through Covid isn’t going to help them in their quest. Ireland looked a mess against England on Thursday night. Wales would probably have been disappointed not to beat a USA side who were missing a whole bunch of key players but they never let any of their own gun players loose, instead keeping the likes of Gareth Bale, David Brooks, Daniel James and others for this match. Wales have been pretty good in this campaign and carry a much bigger goal threat than the Irish. While the draw is a runner I expect Wales to nick this one.
Moving into the later games I expect to see goals when Belgium and England meet. England may well look to offer a defensive organisation in this match but they are without arguably four of their first choice back four for this match with Harry Maguire suspended and Joe Gomez, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Coady out injured. That might mean England’s best chance in a match they really have to win in order to keep their hopes of winning the group alive is to go for the jugular. That will leave them exposed but I just can’t see them containing Kevin de Bruyne and friends for 90 minutes even allowing for Eden Hazard’s absence. There’s still a stack full of quality in this Belgian squad, all of whom can create for Romelu Lukaku who clearly had a point to prove at Wembley last month and will do again here. However this one plays itself out I expect there to be more than 2.5 goals.
Slovenia are going very well in their League C group and they can give themselves a massive advantage going into what could be a winner takes all clash with Greece on Wednesday night if they can see off a Kosovo team who have started to be found out at this level and who are absolutely ravaged with injuries and absent players who were not allowed to join up by their clubs. That isn’t likely to be a good thing when they go to Slovenia who have only dropped two points in the group so far and who haven’t conceded a goal in it yet. Kosovo failed to beat Moldova earlier in the group and that isn’t a good result. Slovenia have plenty of quality in their ranks as well as Jan Oblak in goal and I expect them to come out on top here.
Tips
WON – Back Wales to beat Republic of Ireland for a 3/10 stake at 2.18 with 888sport
Back Belgium vs England – Over 2.5 goals for a 3/10 stake at 1.95 with 888sport
Back them here:
WON – Back Slovenia to beat Kosovo for a 3/10 stake at 1.91 with Betfair
Back them here:
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