The UEFA Nations League campaign comes to an end on Sunday but before the final of the competition takes place there is a third place playoff in Turin in the afternoon as the home side Italy take on Belgium for the bronze medal.
These two sides arrived in Italy for the finals not wanting to be involved in this match but after harrowing semi-final defeats last week they now have to face off in the consolation match, one which might turn out to be important down the line with a World Cup only 13 months away.
Italy
The Italians finally saw their three-year undefeated run ended in the semi-final on Wednesday afternoon when they couldn’t get the better of a Spain side who got out in front and then used the advantage of an extra man in fine style. Italy never gave in during that semi-final even when they chips were against them and that will serve them well overall as the European champions go about adding the World Cup to their Euro 2020 success next year.
One area Italy will want to do a lot better in is defensively where they looked a little all over the place early on in the clash against Spain. They still managed to create a number of chances though and they’ll need to be a little more ruthless than they were in the semi-final if they are to win this match. You suspect this match will mean that little bit more to the Azzurri given that this contest is on their own soil in front of their own supporters.
Belgium
I would imagine Belgium are still reeling from surrendering a 2-0 advantage against France in the semi-final. Losing from 2-0 up was cruel enough for the Belgians thought they had won the match three minutes from the end only for the VAR to deny them. They then had to watch on as France scored the winner in injury time to break their hearts. You sense it will have taken more than three days to get over that loss.
I say that because this Belgium ‘Golden Generation’ are getting no younger and this felt like a great chance for them to finally win something. That isn’t the case here and that is going to pile even more pressure on them when they go to the World Cup in Qatar next year. What they do have here though is the chance to show that there is a next generation of talent in their ranks so that they can still deliver success when the current stars are a thing of the past.
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Team News
Italy will be forced into one change with Leonardo Bonucci suspended for this match, although Roberto Mancini is likely to make a few more changes than just the one. Francesco Acerbi might well be the replacement for Bonucci while Giacomo Raspadori another potential starter.
Roberto Martinez is also expected to rotate his charges for this match with Kevin de Bruyne and Eden Hazard likely to start on the bench to allow the likes of Brighton forward Leandro Trossard to start the match.
Betting
I think there is a lot more to like about Italy in this match than Belgium. I would imagine both teams are going to make changes for this match but I’m not as convinced by the Belgium fringe players as I am about the Italian ones so that is immediately a tick in the box for the home side. That home advantage might be relevant because even in a match which doesn’t matter a huge amount in the grand scheme of things, the Azzurri won’t want successive home losses on their record.
The other reason to like Italy is their semi-final defeat was nowhere near as agonising as the Belgium one and Italy have had an extra 24 hours to take stock and recover. Whoever Italy put out in defence we know they have the capabilities to shackle the Belgian attack but you couldn’t say the same the other way with too much confidence. That makes me think Italy are the team to be on here and I’ll back them but with a bit of draw cover in case this match doesn’t ignite like the two semi-finals did given the potential changes to both teams.
Tips
Back Italy (-0.25AH) to beat Belgium for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with William Hill
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