The PGA Tour heads away from America this week to the island of Bermuda for the Bermuda Championship where the lesser lights of the Tour get to showcase their talents away from the stars who are busy recovering from two tough weeks of action and getting ready for The Masters.
Brendon Todd transformed his career with a win here last year and the event has been upgraded since so all the benefits of winning a PGA Tour event count to this one. Therefore any new champion will be suitably rewarded.
Recent Winners
2019 – Brendon Todd
The Course
The tournament is back at the Port Royal Golf Course over in Bermuda. The track is a par 71 but it is only 6,828 yards long so it certainly isn’t a course that needs a big hitter to tame it. That was highlighted last year when one of the shorter but most accurate hitters won the tournament and we are looking for that sort of player here. Someone who is accurate enough but most importantly of all someone who putts well because the signs are that this is going to be a very low scoring event.
The course has wide fairways and large greens so the only defence for it is the winds with so many holes residing next to the ocean. The wind is expected to blow strongly on the opening day and it could well be pretty strong at certain times over the weekend as well therefore it is important to keep good wind players on side. We are looking for players who can flight their ball in the wind and who will hole a lot of putts.
The Field
With two short field events for the last two weeks this is the chance for the second tier players on the PGA Tour to shine. Brendon Todd will be looking to win the title for a second year in a row while the likes of Harold Varner III, Kristoffer Ventura, Doc Redman and Denny McCarthy will be looking for their maiden PGA Tour titles this week. There is a strong European contingent in the field this week too including major champions Henrik Stenson, Padraig Harrington and Danny Willett while the youngster Rasmus Hojgaard will be looking to showcase his credentials on this stage.
There are a bunch of veterans who are teeing it up looking for a big week as well. Safeway Open champion Stewart Cink, Charley Hoffman, Pat Perez and Russell Knox are just some of those who fall into that category while players like Tom Lewis, Patrick Rodgers, Kyle Stanley and Wyndham Clark have the chance to justify the hype that has been around them at various stages in their careers to date.
Market Leaders
The favourite for the tournament this week isn’t actually a member of the PGA Tour in Will Zalatoris. There is a lot of hype around the man who has dominated the Korn Ferry circuit in recent times. It is said to be a matter of time before he wins at this level and if that is going to happen you would think it would be here. He is only a 12/1 shot though and with the lottery nature of the wind around this place that’s too short for me to invest in.
Brendon Todd has really kicked on since he won this tournament last year and he is 16/1 to retain the title successfully. He has shown in some much bigger events than this in recent times that he has the credentials to be competitive so you would think at this level he is going to be a big danger. His form has just tailed off a little bit too much for comfort though which is a concern. He is a bit too short for me either way but he must be respected at this level.
Harold Varner III ticks a lot of boxes this week and as such he may well be popular with many punters but the one nagging doubt I have is that he hasn’t won on Tour yet and although he should shine at this level he only needs to encounter the wind at the wrong time and that could be the end of his chances. There have been one or two times recently when he’s been in contention but hasn’t looked comfortable so he isn’t for me.
The only other player in the field who is shorter than 33/1 is Doc Redman, a player who I’ve followed a fair bit over the last few months and while I wouldn’t say it has been expensive doing so, it hasn’t exactly been ultra profitable either. Redman has a wonderful tee to green game but I’m not convinced when it comes to the putter. It isn’t a long game test this week so this course may not play to his strengths which is enough of a concern for me to leave him alone.
Main Bets
I’ve been on Peter Malnati a couple of times this season and he landed a nice place prize for me a couple of weeks ago at the Shriners. He is now down a level or two for this tournament and I’m backing him to continue to show his form and if he does that he has enough about him to finally pick up his second Tour win here. Malnati comes here with 2-5 finishes in his last two tournaments with the latter including a second round of 62 while he finished the previous one with a 63. He leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained Putting and looks to be a strong contender to me here.
Henrik Norlander is the other man I like for a main bet this week. He has been going very well in recent tournaments but it has been different parts of his game that have been working. If he can piece it all together than he is entitled to feel that he has a very strong chance of winning his first tournament here. Norlander has a wonderful record at the RSM Classic which has a similar course profile to this tournament. He showed he can play tough tracks at The Memorial and he comes in here off the back of a decent run at the Sanderson Farms at the beginning of the month. His Shriners effort was better than it looked at halfway too and in this company he looks to tick all the boxes to me.
Outsiders
I’ll take three outsiders this week, one at a short range and two at bigger prices. The shorter price of the three is Padraig Harrington, a man we have seen plenty of in Europe in recent times. He has clearly worked hard on his game in lockdown and he didn’t have the worst of times in the events he played recently particularly in the links tournaments where he finished T9 and T14 and that should carry some weight this week. Harrington is incredibly good in the wind and he has the short game and putting ability to prosper around here. I’ll take a punt on him at 60/1.
Fabian Gomez is a former winner of the Sony Open and while his form in recent times has been shocking he went well here last year and was deep in contention at the Barracuda Championship towards the end of last season which suggests that when he is in this secondary company he can still be competitive. That win at the Sony Open was interesting because there are many similarities with that course in Hawaii and this one. He is clearly good in the wind and if he can find his best form at this level once again he could return something at a big price.
Whenever we go down in level I like to take someone who is playing well on the Korn Ferry Tour. Usually I do this in the first couple of events of the season but that wasn’t possible this year with Covid impacting on the players who came up from the second level. It makes sense to do it here though and I’ll take the player who is currently the leading putter on the Korn Ferry Tour in Ollie Schneiderjans, a man who will be eager to get back to the PGA Tour. He is from Texas so he’ll be very comfortable playing in the wind and his form on the KFT is right up there. In 2020 he has had five top 10 finishes and three more top 20s so he’s in good touch and it won’t take a huge amount for him to be contending here at a big price.
Tips
Back P.Malnati to win Bermuda Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 36.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
PLACED – Back O.Schneiderjans to win Bermuda Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back F.Gomez to win Bermuda Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back H.Norlander to win Bermuda Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back P.Harrington to win Bermuda Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 61.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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