The eyes of the racing world will be on Keeneland in America on Saturday when the delayed Breeders Cup is run on what is always a big and terrific night of racing across the pond. The biggest and best horses in the world gather to compete for some huge prizes.
We got the juvenile races out of the way on the opening day of the two-day meeting and now the real stuff takes place on Saturday. There is a 12 race card for the big day and we’re betting in five of them throughout the evening.
6.18 Keeneland: Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
Preview
The Dirt Mile sees Chad Brown’s Complexity installed as favourite and has won 2 from 3 this year but was 2nd on his sole Grade 1 start this term. It’s hard to dismiss any runner from this yard but I’d prefer to search out a bit of value at a bigger price. Art Collector was unbeaten this term including a win in the Bluegrass until coming unstuck in the Preakness and, if you can ignore that, he’s a super each way bet.
Betting
At a big price, I like the chances of Owendale from the outside gate. There’s enough pace in the race to suit this one as he’s been running over further & will make his charge fast & late. Quite often this race goes to one drawn wide that is stepping back in trip so there’s a couple more ticks in his box. All his 5 career wins have come up to 9 furlongs and I fully expect him to be involved in the finish now that Florent Geroux is back in the saddle.
Tips
Back Owendale (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 BetVictor (⅕ odds 1-3)
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6.57 Keeneland: Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Preview
Last year, this race went to Joseph O’Brien’s Iridessa and I fancy the overseas challengers will hold sway again this year. Rushing Fall is another Chad Brown favourite having won 11 of her 14 starts but this is the first time she’s raced over this far which has to be a worry. Mean Mary is closely matched with the favourite and could turn the tables whilst Irish challengers Peaceful & Cayenne Pepper should not be dismissed.
Betting
However, the one I’m siding with is the John Gosden trained Terebellum. Firstly, she’s 3 wins from 5 over a trip around 10 furlongs including her only start on firmish ground. Her last 3 starts have been over a mile which seems on the sharp side. She was a head 2nd at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne before a couple of average runs on soft / heavy ground at Newmarket. With better ground here and a longer trip, she looks excellent value to get back in the winners enclosure.
Tips
Back Terebellum (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 9.50 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-4)
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7.36 Keeneland Breeders Cup Sprint
Preview
A big field of 14 go to post for the sprint and there are 2 that stand out in Yaupon & C Z Rocket. The former has won 4 from 4 in fine style but this is his toughest assignment to date whilst the latter has won his last 5 starts including a pair of Grade 2’s on his last 2 starts. Firenze Fire has chances and would be a danger to all on his best form but is a bit too inconsistent and filly Franks Rockette is up in grade but is in very good form.
Betting
Diamond Oops was only 8th in last year’s Mile and a step back in trip looked to be required. After winning a Grade 3 stepped back to 7 furlongs, he was then moved up to 9 furlongs for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational where he finished 4th and then improved to finish 2nd back over a mile. He was then reverted to sprint trips which has worked a treat as he’s won 2 from 2 over this trip. They were both Grade 2 events with the last one being the Phoenix over this course and distance. He looks very likely to, at least, make the frame.
Tips
Back Diamond Oops (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Betfair (⅕ odds 1-4)
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8.15 Keeneland: Breeders Cup Mile
Preview
A race the Europeans love and this year is no exception with them being responsible for 6 of the runners. Kameko, the 2000 Guineas winner, is the favourite but he’s not been as good since whilst Chad Brown saddles 3 for the home contingent & it’s hard to pick his best hope. Uni won this last year but Raging Bull and Digital Age hold equally solid chances.
Betting
I’m siding with the Europeans and am hoping that Ger Lyons’ Siskin breaks from the gate on terms. He’s had stalls trouble but I’m hoping he overcomes those troubles here because, if he does, he has an outstanding chance. As a 2 year old, he was 4 from 4 over 6 furlongs culminating in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. Stepped up to this trip, he won the Irish 2000 Guineas in tremendous style and the way he quickened up there, he was thought of the next potential superstar. He’s not been quite as good since, finishing 3rd in a red hot Sussex Stakes before disappointing over in France behind Persian King. If back to his best, he could easily be the best of these and he will appreciate the fast ground as he’s yet to taste defeat with the going on the fast side of good.
Tips
Back Siskin (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 10.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-4)
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9.33 Keeneland: Breeders Cup Turf
Preview
10 runners for the mile and a half turf with Europe saddling 5 of the field including the first 4 in the market. Magical is the main O’Brien hope but she’s better over slightly shorter whilst Tarnawa was a strong fancy until Soumillion was ruled out because of Covid. Mogul is a big horse that may struggle with the tight American tracks & Lord North is one of two Gosden horses but probably needs soft ground to show his best.
Betting
Therefore, at a big price, I’m sticking with the home contingent and going with last year’s shock 50/1 2nd in United. Since then he’s raced 6 times, winning 4 and finishing second on his other 2 starts, no more than a head back. All of those have been in Grade 2 company and, whilst this is tougher, his form is as solid as it comes. He has plenty of pace too with all 4 of those wins at no further than 10 furlongs but he also stays this trip well. He’s one of only two runners for Richard Mandella & is the best chance of jockey Flavien Prat. It would be no surprise to see him go from the front & I’m hoping his jockey can dictate the fractions & kick clear off the home turn.
Tips
Back United (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 Betfair (⅕ odds 1-3)
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