After the incredible drama of the conclusion of the Premier League Darts regular season, our darts fix this week comes from the PDC Home Tour II which is hurtling towards the midway point of the first stage.
We’ve had three competitive groups but with no disrespect intended to anyone I think it is fair to suggest that the line up for the three groups this week sees the quality of player ramp up a notch which should make for some great action.
The Format
Each day seven players will be in action on their home oches in a group stage format looking to progress. In every group in the tournament the seven players will each play each other once. In the first round the top three players in each group and the five best fourth-placed players go through to the second stage. Five groups are played out in the second phase with the top four in each making it through to the third stage along with the best fifth-placed player. The final stage begins with three more groups with the top two in each and the best third-placed player qualifying for the Championship Group where the champion is crowned. Each match throughout is the best of nine legs and the tournament will be streamed live on PDCTV or the consoles on the bookmaker websites.
Group 3 Recap
We saw our first upset of the tournament on Wednesday when the favourite for the group Martijn Kleermaker didn’t just fail to top it but he never even qualified from it, to the surprise of many. It was Mickey Mansell who had the best day on Wednesday as he won all six matches to comfortably top the group. Kirk Shepherd gave him his toughest challenge as he won five out of six to finish second with Steve Brown being the other qualifier in third. Lisa Ashton will be the player waiting to see if her three wins will be enough to get her through but it was a day to forget for Kleermaker, Krzysztof Kcuik and Nathan Derry.
It wasn’t the best of days for us betting wise as our faith in Kleermaker to win the group was poorly placed while although Brown won four of his six matches he wasn’t able to beat Mansell. We did recover some of the losses when the last bet of the day won as Kirk Shepherd came out on top in a deciding leg against Lisa Ashton but we’ll be hoping for much better from the groups this week betting wise that’s for sure.
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Group 4 Line Up
The Favourites
We move into the top 50 in the world rankings with the field on Monday and actually have someone who was on show in the World Matchplay recently in action. That player is Jamie Hughes and he will be expected to come through this group and most likely top it. James Wilson is another member of the top 50 in the world but his career has been on the decline due to injury. Here is the ideal chance to turn it around. Wilson is the third favourite for the group at 6/1 while Ted Evetts slots in as the second favourite at 10/3 but there are plenty of question marks over him.
The Outsiders
The other four players in the field are all a double figure price to top the group. They are all lowly ranked either because they are not very good or because they are in the first year of their Tour card and haven’t yet played enough to earn a decent amount. Bradley Brooks has a good reputation and he is a 12/1 shot to win the group while William Borland, another highly-rated player, is 16/1. The veteran Andy Hamilton is in this group and he’ll be looking for something close to his best form. If he can find it he might be worth a nibble at 18/1. The other player in the field is Harald Leitinger who is a 20/1 shot to come out on top.
Outright Betting
It is hard to see beyond Jamie Hughes here but at 5/4 there isn’t a whole lot of value in backing him to win the group, especially as I repeatedly say the aim isn’t necessarily to top the group initially but to make the top three and make it into the next round of the competition. Hughes should really win out in this section because he is a decent distance ahead of the rest of the players but it only takes one slip up in a best of nine and he could be chasing.
If I was to bet on the group I’d probably chance my arm at someone like Hamilton as at least we know he’ll be giving it everything to make it through and is a decent price to boot but can he really win at least five matches to give us a chance? I’m not totally sure he can in all honesty. I don’t see past Hughes but we are betting on players at their homes where natural distractions exist so a 5/4 shot doesn’t really float my boat. I’ll leave the group betting alone.
Match Betting
Those who followed us throughout Home Tour I will know that I like to get on the player with the throw in what I call 50:50 matches or where the throw can swing it into such a situation, when the price is a bit higher than it should be or value with the throw taken into account. There are two of those matches on Monday, the first of which sees Andy Hamilton having the throw against Ted Evetts. Evetts was pretty ordinary in Home Tour I and he hasn’t done much since then in the Summer Series and things. Hamilton never qualified first time around but he played pretty well and I just sense this might be bigger for him than Evetts. With the throw on his side he feels a big price at 6/4.
Later in the day William Borland feels like a big price at evens with the throw to see off Bradley Brooks. Neither of these men threatened to qualify from their group in Home Tour I but it was eye catching to see that Borland beat Dimitri Van den Bergh in his final match 5-3 with a 103+ average which shows just what he can do. Since then Borland has made a couple of last 32s in the Summer Series so he is going along nicely enough. Brooks made one last 32 at the Summer Series but I think long term Borland will be the better player of the two so with the throw he has enough advantages here.
Tips
WON – Back A.Hamilton to beat T.Evetts for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Betway
Back W.Borland to beat B.Brooks for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Boylesports
Back him here:
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