It is the final night of the Premier League Darts regular season on Saturday, an evening in which the top four spots in the table will be finalised and the semi-final line up will be confirmed. We know three of the men competing in the play-offs but there is one spot still to fill.
Nathan Aspinall, Michael van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price go into the last night of league action with a chance of making it into fourth spot and booking a semi-final against Glen Durrant whenever the play-offs are held. This has all the makings of a dramatic night of darts.
Gerwyn Price vs Gary Anderson
The opening match of the night is a pretty big one for Gerwyn Price. He takes on Gary Anderson knowing that he needs a pretty near miracle to qualify for the next round but he’ll be well aware that for that to have any chance of happening he has to win this match. Anderson has qualified already and is playing out his regular season campaign here.
Price will be kicking himself that he is in this position because he has played the bottom two players in the last three evenings and he hasn’t won either of those encounters. Draws have really held him back, but he did pick up a huge win over Anderson in the reverse meeting which could offer some encouragement. That might only have fuelled the Anderson fire and in recent nights he has been superb, even allowing for his loss to Michael van Gerwen on Friday night. This isn’t a match to bet on given that all the pressure is on Price and he doesn’t appear to be handling it too well. That might make Anderson favourite but I hate betting on players with little to play for.
Michael van Gerwen vs Daryl Gurney
We are not used to getting to the final match of the regular season and Michael van Gerwen not being top of the table and booked in for a semi-final spot. Not only is he not top this year he isn’t even in the top four going into the last night and if he is to have any chance of qualifying he needs to get something from his match with Daryl Gurney, who is guaranteed to finish bottom.
This has been an awful campaign for van Gerwen so far but there have been more positive signs in the last two nights with him drawing with Glen Durrant and beating Gary Anderson but his big problem here is even if he wins he isn’t guaranteed to make it to the o2. I expect van Gerwen to win here. He has a real dominance over Gurney, who to be fair has played ok for someone bottom of the table but MVG knows it is do or die now. His recent wins over Gurney have been 11-3, 7-1 and 8-3 so with the throw I’ve got to think not only does MVG win this but he covers the 2.5 leg handicap.
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Peter Wright vs Michael Smith
The third match of the night offers up the chance for the world champion Peter Wright to make it into the semi-final. He knows that if he wins or draws he is in but if he loses to Michael Smith he will be a sitting duck and relying on other results to help him out.
Wright has had a campaign of playing well and not always getting the results but he should have done enough to make it into the semi-finals whereas Smith has been dogged by missed doubles for the last week or so and that has been very costly indeed. One thing both these men have been consistent with is hitting 180s. They are the leading 180 hitters in the competition and I expect them to combine for at least nine more here. The way these two are scoring an 8.5 180s line doesn’t look high enough to me. There were nine 180s in the reverse meeting between these two and Smith hit nine on his own on Friday night. Wright is peppering the 60 so it shouldn’t take long for the over to land here.
Glen Durrant vs Nathan Aspinall
If everything goes as expected earlier in the night then the final match of the regular season will be pivotal as the league leader Glen Durrant takes on a Nathan Aspinall who knows he is likely to be into the semi-finals with a win as long as MVG doesn’t gain three legs on him with his result.
By the time this match comes around Durrant is unlikely to be playing for anything so that will suit Aspinall but ‘The Asp’ is likely to be under huge pressure to pick up a win here. He’ll take some comfort from the fact that Durrant appears to have come off the top of his form but with the league end in sight it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if he conjures up his best form to finish his regular season campaign with. Given what could be on it this could be a great match to watch but I wouldn’t want to bet on it with any certainty so I’ll sit this one out.
Tips
Back M.van Gerwen (-2.5 legs) to beat D.Gurney for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Betway
Back P.Wright vs M.Smith – Over 8.5 180s for a 3/10 stake at 1.80 with Betfair
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