The PGA Tour returned in fine style last week and the roadshow continues on Thursday when another absolutely superb field takes part in the RBC Heritage, the second event to be played behind closed doors as the sport gets up and running again.
We saw a loaded leaderboard last week and another here would be no surprise, although this event has a history of maidens winning their first title. CT Pan did just that here last year and he’ll be out to defend his title.
Recent Winners
2019 – CT Pan
2018 – Satoshi Kodaira
2017 – Wesley Bryan
2016 – Branden Grace
2015 – Jim Furyk
2014 – Matt Kuchar
2013 – Graeme McDowell
2012 – Carl Pettersson
2011 – Brandt Snedeker
2010 – Jim Furyk
The Course
It is Harbour Town Golf Links which stages the tournament again this year. The course is a par 71 which only stretches 7,099 yards so it is certainly not a long track by modern standards. This tournament usually fills the week after The Masters but this year it gets the traditional US Open slot. It has a US Open field to match with everyone looking to get back in nick before the big events towards the end of next month.
There is no secret that accuracy is the key here although not necessarily off the tee where the landing zones for those who don’t get greedy are wide and generous. It is into the small greens where the fun and games come along so pure ball strikers and excellent iron players should work their way to the top of the staking plan. We should also remember that this is quite an exposed layout so players who can handle a bit of wind should be kept to the forefront of our minds. Bombers aren’t necessarily needed here.
The Field
For the second week in succession we have the top five in the world teeing it up here. None of them really made an impression on the final leaderboard last week but Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas all tee it up again. It is the defending champion CT Pan who they will all be out to beat while Hilton Head specialists Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald and Bryson DeChambeau are also in the field.
The winner from last week, Daniel Berger, is also in the field looking for successive wins while former champions Branden Grace, Wesley Bryan and Graeme McDowell are all here. The likes of Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im are just some of the many stars who will be heading to South Carolina looking to pick up a trophy on Father’s Day.
Market Leaders
Rory McIlroy is the favourite to win the tournament again this week. He looked like he was getting there strongly last week and was inside the top 10 in the early stages but he faded badly on Sunday and never even made the top 30. I’m not convinced Hilton Head suits him any more than I was sure Colonial didn’t really. It is 11 years since McIlroy teed it up at Hilton Head and that just feels like a negative to me. 12/1 is a bigger price than last week but his game doesn’t look sharp enough to guarantee a win in this company.
Justin Thomas lines up as a 14/1 second favourite to win the tournament. He was another who looked right there really to stamp his authority on things last week but then faded in the final round and that has happened a few times in the last year or so which is a concern. Profile wise there aren’t too many better in the field than Thomas but there is something about the way he isn’t finishing tournaments off that puts me off backing him at a tight price in this field.
Bryson DeChambeau is my idea of the winner of this tournament but at 16/1 I’ve missed the better prices on him. I’m not actually sure his famous extra power will be that necessary this week but what we shouldn’t remember is that for all the analytics and mathematics he is a clean striker of a golf ball and his record around here highlights that. He is another who had claims to win last week but didn’t get it done. I’m not convinced he’ll make that mistake again though. Only the price is putting me off getting involved here.
Jon Rahm didn’t have a great comeback week at Colonial but he can make up for that here if he comes on for the run. If he does he’ll be popular at 18/1 but the facts remain that Hilton Head doesn’t really suit his strengths. That isn’t to say he can’t play it and can’t be competitive around it but it does suggest better bets will lie elsewhere. I prefer Rahm on pure bombers tracks and this isn’t one of them so I’ll pass him on. It is 20/1 bar the above quartet.
Main Bets
I’ll take three main bets this week with the first one being on Justin Rose who I’m pleased bounced back to form last week. Normally I wouldn’t get involved in a player who changes coach or something but there’s no media to overly scrutinise him on track this week so he should be able to sail under the radar given the avalanche of riches in the field here. If there is a negative it comes in the time he has had away from this tournament but his long game is always pure so there is no concerns there. His putter caught fire last week and if that is maintained here he could be very tough to stop.
Kevin Kisner didn’t get much of the limelight last week because he finished in the middle of the pack but he shot under par for every round and there is no shame in that at Colonial that is for sure. He is a former runner up here and it can only be a matter of time before he goes in as his profile is absolutely tailor made for this track. He is a clean ball striker and a wonderful putter and when you put that combination together around here you generally aren’t going to be that far away. He’s a South Carolina native and a home win would be no surprise this week.
Tyrrell Hatton rounded off the pre-Covid part of the season with a win at Bay Hill and I think he’s a superb price to win on this course which fits a lot of the trends that Bay Hill did, especially the need for pure and quality hit iron shots. That is meat and drink for Hatton who is one of the best iron players around in the game. In an ideal world he would have played last week to get rid of any rust but only 65-70 players have played more than two PGA Tour rounds in 3 months so he isn’t completely disadvantaged. He should like what he sees at Hilton Head and at 50/1 looks a great bet.
Outsiders
Luke List won last week. Regular followers will know I hate backing previous week winners because of all the potential for living it up celebrating and all the media commitments that come with winning but this feels like the time to ignore my hatred of that and get with List. List was third here two years ago and the track he won at last week was a Pete Dye design like this one is. List is a clean hitter of a ball whose only real weakness is often with the putter. You don’t win even on the Korn Ferry Tour if you don’t putt well so he’s obviously in good shape and I’ll pay to see how he does here.
Nobody can have done better around this place than Luke Donald without walking off with the title and it can be no surprise that his record here is so good. He has been in the top three on seven previous occasions and while there is no denying that he isn’t the player who was once the number one in the world, this course hasn’t changed that much that he can’t be competitive on it. He is certainly a DFS starter for fantasy players but at 150/1 there’s enough juice for a small bet to see if he can get involved on a track where his off the tee weakness is not exposed as much.
Russell Henley is a player who should be doing a lot better around here than he has done in the past but at 200/1 I’ll take a man who thrived on strokes gained on approach prior to the lockdown to come out of it with a decent effort. If Henley starts peppering the flags like he was doing before the virus struck then he could give them all something to think about because he know how good a putter he is. The weakness of his is off the tee but you get away with that around here so 200/1 on a decent second shot in player looks big to me.
Tips
Back J.Rose to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 31.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back K.Kisner to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
PLACED – Back T.Hatton to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back L.List to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back L.Donald to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back R.Henley to win RBC Heritage (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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