The PGA Tour season ends this week when the leading 30 players head to Atlanta for the Tour Championship where someone is going to walk away a heck of a lot richer than they arrived by winning the FedEx Cup and the huge bounty that comes with it.
Rory McIlroy won the tournament last season and at the time of writing he is in the field ready to defend his title but given the format used for this event he will not find it too easy to get the job done once again.
Recent Winners
2019 – Rory McIlroy
2018 – Tiger Woods
2017 – Xander Schauffele
2016 – Rory McIlroy
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – Billy Horschel
2013 – Henrik Stenson
2012 – Brandt Snedeker
2011 – Bill Haas
2010 – Jim Furyk
The Course
As ever we go to East Lake Country Club to determine the latest multi-millionaire in the sport. We’ve had a different mix of courses in the play-offs so far. The first one was ripped apart at TPC Boston but then we saw the best tournament of the year at Olympia Fields last week and now we are back to ball striking purity and a solid test of all departments of the game on a track that will see good shots rewarded but bad ones penalised.
The course is a par 70 and it can stretch out to 7,362 yards, although this time of year the air is always quite humid in this part of the world so the track is unlikely to play its full yardage. A look back in history will tell you there is nothing for insane power here, instead we need players who keep the ball in play and can have a good week on the greens. Accuracy into the greens is probably the most important factor here as it isn’t the easiest course to scramble on.
The Field
Just 30 men have made it into the field this week and at the time of writing all of them are teeing it up. The winners of the first two play-off events are in the field both with a leading chance of winning the Tour season in Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm. The one major champion so far in 2020 is also in the field this week in Collin Morikawa but there is no place for the likes of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson or Brooks Koepka.
Of the rest of the field there is a good element of the upcoming stars with players such as Cameron Champ looking to bookend the season with titles while tournament winners Sungjae Im, Joaquin Niemann and Sebastian Munoz are in the field. Of the more seasoned brigade, Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger and Bryson DeChambeau are just some of the players looking to end their campaign with the title.
Starting Leaderboard
We are once again using the handicap system that got used last season with the leader of the point scoring getting an early advantage and the players who just snuck into the field starting a good distance back, in line with how they have performed over the course of the campaign. The leaderboard will start this week as follows:
Here's the starting position for the top 30 at East Lake pic.twitter.com/jFv1g4AFDb
— Ryan Lavner (@RyanLavnerGC) August 30, 2020
Market Leaders
So Dustin Johnson starts the tournament with a two shot lead and as a result of that he is 2/1 to win the title. He doesn’t have the greatest record on this course though and a lot of his strengths are negated so he might need that advantage if he is to hold off a seriously good charging pack. Nobody is in better form than Johnson though after he slaughtered the field at TPC Boston to begin the play-offs and lost out in a play-off last week. That 2/1 just feels a touch on the short side though.
Jon Rahm won the BMW Championship last week and he wouldn’t be the first player to win that tournament and then go on and win the Tour Championship. If he is going to do that he’ll need to overturn a two shot deficit to Dustin Johnson but with four rounds to do it in he’ll be confident of achieving that. The concern is that East Lake doesn’t really play to his strengths either so at 3/1 there could well be better value to be had elsewhere.
Justin Thomas came here as the top seed last season and couldn’t handle the pressure and get it done. This year he’ll hope to win the title from third place which means he will start out three shots off the pace. He has three top 10s here which shows that the course doesn’t negate his skills but at the same time it does highlight that others are better suited to it. I’m not convinced he’s much value at 11/2 given that his advantage over those behind him isn’t that big.
Webb Simpson starts the week on six under, four off the pace of Johnson and he is 11/1 to finally land this title. Of the four leaders I would say East Lake plays to his strengths the most and he is coming into form at the right time. He was brave enough to take last week off having played four big tournaments on the bounce so he’ll come here fully refreshed. McIlroy won this title from a worse position than -6 last year so you’ve got to think Simpson is in with a great chance.
FedEx Cup Betting
I’ll bet in both the tournament markets this week and I’ll start with the FedEx one which is the tournament with the starting strokes applied. I sense this is more open than the betting market would suggest and if it wasn’t for the fact that Collin Morikawa is a debutant I would be all over him but he is on debut so that is enough of a concern to swerve him. Instead I’ll take the man who starts the week a shot better off than him in Webb Simpson.
Simpson has been here seven times so he will know the track by now and he has already had three top five finishes. This is a course where the ball striking and the all round game is tested and there aren’t many better than Simpson right now in both disciplines. There aren’t many in better form than him either after he finished in the top 10 of his last two tournaments, the Wyndham Championship and The Northern Trust. Simpson has won twice in 2020 at Phoenix and RBC Heritage and you need to hit the ball solidly and have a decent short game at both venues. At 11/1 I think there is enough juice in his price in the main event this week.
72 Hole Betting
The best value probably lies in the 72 hole betting which is the tournament without the starting strokes applied, so basically everyone starts on level par in this event. Two players catch my eye at the prices here with the first of those being Billy Horschel. One of the best things about these play-off events is the access and interviews we get and Horschel made it absolutely clear as day that he loved his game in Missouri last week but just couldn’t get a putt to drop. That has me excited for his chances this week because he isn’t actually a bad putter and on these smaller greens putting is actually a little easier. Horschel will have good memories of this track having landed the FedEx crown here in 2014. When I bet on this market I’m after players who might not necessarily be all out for the FedEx prize and instead looking to play good golf and maximise his returns. I sense that could be Horschel. He isn’t likely to win the FedEx Cup from level par and as last man into the field needing a double bogey from Corey Conners at the last to get him in, this is basically a free roll for him. I’ll see how he goes in this one.
Brendon Todd has been here once before when everything was level stakes and he finished 17th which isn’t a bad effort by any means and I think he could be worth backing at the prices. At this stage of his career I would imagine Todd will be delighted just to be here so whatever he makes from the week will be a bonus rather than something that drives him. We’ve seen Todd really improve this year. He has won twice on ball striking courses and in recent times he has led the WGC after 54 holes, been in contention at the USPGA Championship and finished in the top 10 in the BMW Championship last week. He is a player who is playing tough courses well and that is because more often than not he is playing the course from the short grass. That still counts for a lot this week so at the prices he’s well worth a go on the level strokes event.
Tips
Back W.Simpson to win Tour Championship/FedEx Cup (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 12.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Back B.Horschel to win Tour Championship (72 holes) (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Back B.Todd to win Tour Championship (72 holes) (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Back them here:
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