The first round of the USPGA Championship gets underway on Thursday, almost three months later than it was originally scheduled to do so, which means it is the first chance for the field to get to look at TPC Harding Park from a competitive standpoint.
With this being a major championship, all the three balls get priced up for the round and we’ll have a good delve into those, but regular readers will know that before we do that we will get stuck into a very strong first round leader market.
First Round Leader
Whenever you bet on this market in America you need to look at the weather. Tee times are in two waves in this tournament – morning and afternoon – so if the weather favours one over the other you can almost halved the potential winners immediately. There is a lot of talk of the rough being wet in the mornings and that is an issue but the winds are expected to be twice as strong in the afternoon in what are already cool conditions.
That makes me stick to the morning but the one thing I want are long drivers of the ball with Tony Finau being the first of those. He has a 7.27am tee time which could be ideal. He has said he is going to attack the course with the driver and that is very much the strength of his game. I don’t think that he has the tools to win a tournament like this but he is regularly there or thereabouts from the off and could snatch an early lead here. The other player I like in this market is Brendan Steele at a monster price. He is a wonderful driver of the ball and while he won’t be quite as long as Finau, he is pretty straight. Steele is well-known for playing his best golf in California so this gig should be right up his street. He has an 8.39am tee time which could see him enjoy a strong opening round.
Thursday 3 Balls
The entirety of the field will go out in threes in the opening round with plenty of featured groups for us to enjoy throughout the nine hours of coverage on Thursday. The headline group at 16.11 BST is the one featuring the three most recent major winners in Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry and Gary Woodland. The pick of them is the one at 16.33 BST which has world number one Justin Thomas, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Much later in the day there are some tasty groups and they include the 21.47 group that has Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau and Adam Scott in it. The one after that between Jon Rahm, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia isn’t too bad either. We’ve had a look through all the groups and have come up with three bets.
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Rafa Cabrera Bello/Ryo Ishikawa/Jason Kokrak
Match tees off at 16.17 BST
For my three ball bets I’m looking for groups where one player has a serious power or length advantage on the others in the group, and is preferably the best player in it and the first of those sees Jason Kokrak going up against Rafa Cabrera Bello and Ryo Ishikawa in a group I expect the American to win.
I backed Rafa Cabrera Bello last week but he finished stone last and was pretty awful throughout the week which isn’t good. He did at least play which is something that Ishikawa hasn’t done since lockdown and this is a brute of a golf course to be playing without a competitive hit in months. That makes me think Kokrak is a good thing here. The American has the power to get it out there and that will be needed this early in the morning. His confidence is likely to be better than the other two and I think his score will be too.
Mike Lorenzo-Vera/Marty Jertson/Tom Lewis
Match tees off at 17.01 BST
The second group which fits my criteria for Thursday comes towards the end of the morning wave of tee times when European Tour stars Mike Lorenzo-Vera and Tom Lewis go out alongside Marty Jertson who might well be out of his depth.
Jertson has played four PGA Championships in the past, making the cut just once but he finished stone last when he did make the cut so I can’t believe this isn’t between the two Europeans. I’m not convinced this course plays to the strengths of Lorenzo-Vera although his battling qualities shouldn’t be underestimated. I can’t see past Lewis here though. He has won in America recently on the Korn Ferry Tour and obviously ploughed himself into contention last week with a weekend blitz of birdies. He has tasted enough majors now to feel comfortable and I can’t really see past him here.
Jon Rahm/Phil Mickelson/Sergio Garcia
Match tees off at 21.58 BST
The final bet for me in the opening round of the tournament comes midway through the afternoon waved where the now usurped former world number one Jon Rahm goes out alongside fellow Spanish player Sergio Garcia and legendary veteran Phil Mickelson.
With the rough the way it is here I can’t be having Phil Mickelson even allowing for him having a much more positive week in Memphis last week. I respect Sergio Garcia but he hasn’t shown his true best form for a while with the suspicion that having a new family has got more of his attention than his golf in recent times, and nobody can argue with that if it is. This feels a big week for Rahm. He is a contender anywhere but this course might well suit his strengths. His power and length is an advantage over these two and he’s shown in the past he’s more than comfortable in the winds. I think he has enough of an edge on his playing partners to come through here.
Tips
Back T.Finau First Round Leader (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back T.Lewis to beat M.Lorenzo-Vera & M.Jertson for a 3/10 stake at 1.83 with Betfair
Back them here:
PLACED – Back B.Steele First Round Leader (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
WON – Back J.Rahm to beat P.Mickelson & S.Garcia for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 with Coral
Back him here:
WON – Back J.Kokrak to beat R.Cabrera Bello & R.Ishikawa for a 3/10 stake at 2.38 with Bet365
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