After three great weeks in the desert, the European Tour heads back to Australia this week for the Vic Open, an event which is increasing in profile with every year that it is staged, especially with Australian golf in focus at the minute after so many recent winners from that area.
David Law had the biggest week of his career here last year and he’ll look to defend the title across the two courses in use. The field this time round doesn’t look as strong as the one he beat which should give him some hope.
Recent Winners
2019 – David Law
The Courses
Both the men and the women are in action at the same time this week so the tournament is played across two courses at the Beach Golf Links in Geelong. The Beach Course and the Creek Course are the ones in use. Both are par 72s which measure under 7,000 yards so this is a bit of a contrast to the three tracks used in the desert more recently.
We are at the Australian sandbelt this week so there is a strong premium on accuracy here rather than smacking it miles. Another key requirement is the ability to play well in the wind because we are right by the coast and the breeze is certain to blow. A good short game is another thing of use this week so this is a test of the all-round game rather than a brute force contest.
The Field
There were a number of stars in the field last year but really we just have the best Australia has to offer with one or two objections to that particular rule this week. Recent winners Wade Ormsby and Lucas Herbert are here as is Presidents Cup star Haotong Li. Local hopefuls Jason Scrivener and Brad Kennedy are here too while the impressive Min Woo Lee also has a tee time in his home event.
Big hitters Ryan Fox and Sam Horsfield are also teeing it up this week while veterans such as Richard Green, Geoff Ogilvy, Brett Rumford and Andrew Dodt are also in the field. Ashley Chesters, Hideto Tanihara and Marcus Fraser also have tee times but it is fair to say this is one of the weaker fields a European Tour event is going to see this term.
Market Leaders
Haotong Li is the leading name in the field and he is the 14/1 favourite to win the tournament. If the world rankings are anything to go by the Chinese star could lead this lot a merry dance, but there is no escaping the fact that he is in no form whatsoever and even if he was these tracks probably don’t bring out the best in his game given his potential to be quite wayward off the tee. He might be the best player in the field on paper but he isn’t for me here.
Lucas Herbert and Jason Scrivener are next in the betting at 16/1. The former comes here having won in Dubai a couple of weeks ago but he is a big hitter and I’m not convinced he is best suited to this place either. Scrivener on the other hand looks perfectly attached to what is needed on these tracks and was fifth here last year. There isn’t a whole lot not to like about Scrivener except he hasn’t won on the European Tour which is a slight concern.
Brad Kennedy was a runner up around here 12 months ago and he is 18/1 to go one step further this year. This will be the first time he has teed it up in 2020 though which is a concern as rust is sure to be an issue. If it wasn’t for that he might well have been worth considering, but given that is the case I suspect he could be a little on the short side now so I’m happy to overlook him this week.
On the best prices Wade Ormsby, Min Woo Lee and Ryan Fox are all 20/1 to win the tournament this week. I’d have my concerns about the latter two though because they are renowned as big hitters rather than touch players. We’ve seen Fox go well on links courses in the past though so we shouldn’t rule him out necessarily although he looks short given this course doesn’t suit his skill set. Min Woo Lee will have his day but I’m not convinced it will be here. Ormsby is of more interest as I’ll come to shortly. It is 25/1 bar.
Main Bets
It is Wade Ormsby I like this week. He has already won for me once this season when I backed him on a track in Hong Kong that is similar to these ones in that it wasn’t demanding length wise off the tee and the wind was often in play. Accuracy was a premium there and it will be here and the Australian prides himself on that, and tends to compete very well wherever that is the requirement. You can get 20/1 on him to win this week but given the competitiveness, and the slight lottery element to it with two courses being in use I will take the extra places and back him to come out on top on the European Tour for the second time in as many months at the slightly shorter price of 18/1.
Ashley Chesters doesn’t win very often and often finds himself having to finish the season well to avoid losing his European Tour card, but he has a wonderful opportunity to pick up some points to boost his total here because these tracks suit his game nicely. Chesters never deviates far from the fairways and I don’t expect that to change here either. His game into the greens is usually pretty good so if the putter hots up he should be able to fly in higher than the 12th placed finish he managed here last year on debut.
Outsiders
Marcus Fraser hasn’t done a whole lot for a while but at his best we know these conditions suit him. He has a very good short game and that lack of power off the tee isn’t going to expose him this week. With that in mind, he might consider this a big week for himself as he can get a hold of the benefits that go with winning on Tour here, unlike a lot of weeks where he just isn’t long enough. If it all comes together then Fraser should still have a good week in him, especially in his homeland so he’s my first outsider here.
The other one comes in the form of Alejandro Canizares, who regular readers will know I tend to follow when he is on tracks which aren’t demanding of power off the tee. He can get the ball in play this week and then the rest of his game comes to the party then as he is excellent with an iron in hand and usually has no issues with the putter. This is a very weak field and a lot of those bigger names who are here aren’t suited to the challenge. That isn’t the case with the Spaniard. Conditions should suit him nicely and he can go well at a big price as a result of that.
Tips
Back W.Ormsby to win Vic Open (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 19.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back A.Canizares to win Vic Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Boylesports (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back A.Chesters to win Vic Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 46.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
PLACED – Back M.Fraser to win Vic Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 91.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-6)
Back him here:
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