The PGA Tour moves to one of the best stops on the circuit this week, and while we have to wait another week for Jack Nicklaus’ Memorial Tournament, we do at least get to see his exciting Muirfield Village track when it stages the Workday Charity Open.
The tournament this week was due to be the John Deere Classic but with that part of the country unable to host events at the minute, we get an unprecedented two straight weeks at Jack’s place with this newly created event kicking things off.
The Course
We are at Muirfield Village this week and while all the numbers remain similar to usual, the setup of the golf course is going to be completely different to what those who are also playing next week will see. In full this course can stretch to 7,456 yards for a par of 72 but it is unlikely to go that far because the organisers will want to maintain the main parts of the course for next week and keep it fresh. That means the players will see different tees here.
To make sure the two courses are different, the rough is going to be slightly shorter this week and the greens will be slower so there is a rare chance for the field to go flag hunting in an aggressive manner. One thing which does not change is the wide open landing spaces off the tee and the importance of precise iron shots into what are undulating greens. This has always been a track for the ball striker but with the greens slow it might be a week where a weaker putter comes good.
The Field
There is no doubt the fields have weakened since the early days of the restart but with a WGC at the end of the month and three majors and the FedEx Cup Play-Offs to come soon after that, it is understandable why players are looking to get a breather in. That said though, the field is littered with major champions including the current US Open winner Gary Woodland and the USPGA champion Brooks Koepka.
Justin Rose, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas and Jason Day are just some of the other former major champions in the field. The likes of Patrick Cantlay, Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele and Hideki Matsuyama are all teeing it up this week as are European stars Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Matthew Fitzpatrick and The Open champion Shane Lowry. Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson are among the entertainers on show.
Market Leaders
Justin Thomas is a 10/1 favourite to win the tournament this week. That is fair enough. In my mind he’s the best player in the field and is nicely suited to this test but he made a big thing of his putter being stone cold last time out and to say that is a concern would be an understatement. Although these greens are going to be slower and therefore potentially easier to putt on, that sort of thing becomes a mental issue very quickly. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins here but there is enough concern to leave him alone.
We have three joint second favourites at 14/1. They are the man who will defend the title next week in Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka. I’m not sure the qualities of the latter two are perfectly suited for this layout and if they are they might enjoy things more next week when the firmness of the course gives them an advantage when they are slapping shorter irons into the less receptive greens. Cantlay is harder to rule out but you have to catch him on the right week with the putter and he might just be a fair price with that in mind.
Hideki Matsuyama ticks a lot of boxes around here and he is 16/1 to win the tournament. That feels a little on the short side to me I have to say but I can understand why he is that price. He is a former winner around here and another three top 15s have come his way. Asian players are brought up on slower greens so that is another advantage he has around here. He hasn’t really pulled up any trees since the restart which is a concern. I respect him but it doesn’t feel right to be on at this price. It is 18/1 bar.
Main Bets
A couple of weeks ago I took Justin Rose and he got started too late at Harbour Town but he is a former winner here and the only real weakness in his game is the putter. That has actually improved since the restart and I expect that to come good even more here on slower greens where he won’t have to play for as much borrow on the greens. His tee to green game has served him very well around here in the past. He’s the second leading money earner of all time on this track so it is a comfortable fit and at 22/1 I’m prepared to give Rose another chance here.
The other main bet for me is the man who should have won the opening tournament after the restart in Collin Morikawa, a player who holds genuine claims of being the best iron hitter in the game right now. He showcased that and some at Colonial Country Club in the Charles Schwab Challenge. His short range putting was an issue there and has clearly affected his confidence since then so taking last week off was probably a good idea. That would have given him the chance to reflect on things and tweak what needs improving. He’s third on Tour in strokes gained approach this season. That’s the statistic this week so the American is a main bet for me.
Outsiders
It is a surprise that Byeong-Hun An is yet to win this tournament but he has done everything but. He has made no secret in the past and indeed this week that he enjoys Nicklaus designed courses. So he should too because they reward aggression and from tee to green he has that in abundance. His form going into the tournament isn’t the best, that has to be said, but sometimes there is little substitute for comfort and confidence on a certain layout. An was a runner up here in 2018 and hasn’t been out of the top 25 in his last four visits. He’s my first outsider this week.
Emiliano Grillo has caught my eye since the restart. He has played all four weeks and the last two of them he has been playing very nicely in the opening two rounds of the tournament but then things have gone a little pear-shaped. To be fair to him he still finished with a -11 total last week and if he posts that here he is likely to be competitive. Grillo has an outstanding tee to green game and if these slower greens bring out the best of his putting game then his strength with the longer clubs should have him going very well indeed. The Argentine has two top 11 finishes in the last four years here. He’ll do for me.
My final selection is on Kyle Stanley, a player with three top six finishes in his last five starts around Muirfield Village. That doesn’t surprise me either. His tee to green game is as precise as anyone’s when he is on top of his form. I would imagine a return to a happy hunting ground will bring out all the good in his game here and that makes him dangerous. It hasn’t been the best restart for Stanley but there was enough at the Travelers a couple of weeks ago to suggest his game isn’t far away. He could be a big price here.
Tips
Back J.Rose to win Workday Charity Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 23.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
WON – Back C.Morikawa to win Workday Charity Open (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back B-H.An to win Workday Charity Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back E.Grillo to win Workday Charity Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back K.Stanley to win Workday Charity Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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