The 2021 European Tour campaign kicks off in with the first Rolex Series event of the year this week as the stars of the game head to Abu Dhabi for the Abu Dhabi Championship, the tournament which is fast becoming the best of the regular season tournaments in this part of the world.
Newly crowned European number one Lee Westwood certainly enjoyed it last year when he waltzed off with a two shot victory and he is here looking to retain his title but has a strong looking field to overcome if he is to achieve that.
Recent Winners
2020 – Lee Westwood
2019 – Shane Lowry
2018 – Tommy Fleetwood
2017 – Tommy Fleetwood
2016 – Rickie Fowler
2015 – Gary Stal
2014 – Pablo Larrazabal
2013 – Jamie Donaldson
2012 – Robert Rock
2011 – Martin Kaymer
The Course
It is the Abu Dhabi Golf Club which ones again stages some of the best that Europe has to offer this week. The track is a par 72 which measures a whopping 7,642 yards this year although the dry desert air means the ball flies further than usual so it doesn’t play to a full yardage. More often than not it is accuracy over length which is the telling factor and with the wind expected to be up over the first 36 holes that would appear to ring true again this year.
This course develops further every year the tour arrives and gets harder off the tee so good drivers of the golf ball shouldn’t be ignored here. It is expected to be gusty on Thursday afternoon and throughout Friday so scrambling could be a big statistic this week so we’re basically looking for decent ball strikers who don’t have any issues in the wind and who can work a bit of magic around the greens that will inevitably be missed early in the event.
The Field
There is a pretty strong field assembled to get 2021 underway on the European Tour. This is a Rolex Series event though so you would expect that. The field is headed by Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas who both take time away from the PGA Tour to tee it up at the curtain raiser for the new season. European number one and defending champion Lee Westwood is also here as is the BMW PGA Championship winner Tyrrell Hatton.
Other notables in the field include former winners of this Abu Dhabi event in Shane Lowry, Martin Kaymer, Tommy Fleetwood and Pablo Larrazabal. The DP World Tour Championship winner Matthew Fitzpatrick also has a tee time this week while Justin Rose, Victor Perez, Robert MacIntyre, Matt Wallace and Bernd Wiesberger are some of the other players who not only have their eye on a big week in Abu Dhabi but potentially the Ryder Cup later in the year.
Market Leaders
We have 6/1 joint favourites to win the tournament this week in Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. McIlroy has an amazingly good record here but equally as surprising is that despite four seconds and two thirds he has never won this tournament. I’d make him favourite for the event this year but I’m not backing a 6/1 shot off the back of a break. Thomas is of less interest. He makes his debut at the course this year and has a fair bit of scrutiny on him after those comments he made at the Tournament of Champions two weeks ago. That added pressure isn’t welcomed on a 6/1 poke.
Tyrrell Hatton is a 12/1 shot to open up 2021 with a win. He won the flagship event on the European Tour in 2020 and won on the PGA Tour but has never cracked the top five here which would be something of a concern. He usually comes good later in the year rather than the start of it but he has established himself as a leading player in the world game now so he certainly shouldn’t be ruled out, especially if the short game is as big as it is expected to be this week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood at the 14/1 fourth favourites and the only other players in the field who are shorter than 28/1. Fitzpatrick won the season ending event in nearby Dubai at the end of the previous campaign. His last two outings here have seen him finish third and then second so he’s due to go one better. Fleetwood is twice a champion around here and was second last year but his form without crowds and since lockdown leaves plenty to be desired so he isn’t as attractive as Fitzpatrick, but even then this early in the year Fitzy feels no better than a fair price.
Main Bets
I’ll go with a couple of main bets this week with the first of those being the man who rounded out 2020 with a pair of wins in his homeland in Christiaan Bezuidenhout. If the short game is going to be a feature of the tournament, and it very well could be, then Bezuidenhout should propel himself to the fore this week. He has a wonderful short game as we saw in South Africa a few months ago but also at Valderrama where you can’t win without a solid tee to green game as well as a good technique with the shorter irons. The South African will be well tuned to playing in the wind and although he has an ordinary record here he was second in the Dubai Desert Classic last year and in the Qatar Masters the year before so he can play in desert conditions. This might not be the low scoring week we are used to and that can play right into the hands of Bezuidenhout.
The other main bet I like here is Bernd Wiesberger, a player who I’m expecting a huge year from as he chases down a first Ryder Cup appearance. This week could be right up the Austrian’s street. He is very good in the wind as he has shown previously when winning the Made in Denmark and Scottish Open back in 2019. He has three top 10 finishes in the last six years and another top 15 in that time so he tends to play pretty well here. Any elevation in the scoring should suit him nicely. There is no massive weakness in the game of the Austrian and I’m expecting a big run from him in these conditions.
Outsiders
I’ll have a dart at three outsiders with the first of those a man who has won here in the past in Pablo Larrazabal. You never truly know what you are going to get with the Spaniard but should the short game have to come to the fore then he has an immediate advantage on many because he has one of the best touches you’ll find around the green. It isn’t that long ago that Larrazabal won down in South Africa so we know that he retains the ability to win tournaments. Although this is becoming a tighter track off the tee I’m still not convinced it presents too many problems for the Spaniard so at 150/1 he looked overpriced to me.
I’ll stick with a Spanish theme for my second outside bet as the Qatar Masters champion Jorge Campillo is of interest to me this week. It is fair to say that his finish to 2020 wasn’t as strong as he would have liked but I’m prepared to overlook that because he is very solid off the tee and has an excellent short game. To win in Qatar you have to be able to handle breezy conditions and actually much of his best form comes on exposed tracks so that is very much a positive. At this time of year you largely have to take form with a pinch of salt or at trust. If he can hit it well then the profile of his game suggests he’s no 200/1 shot.
I’ll also place an element of faith in the form of Eddie Pepperell as well. His game went completely in 2020 but although he cuts a funny figure he will want much better on the course in 2021 and I note that he played at Trump’s course in Dubai last week which suggests he is getting plenty of practice in and working on his game. I wouldn’t say that is a tip in itself because I suspect his form problems were confidence as much as technical. All that said, at his best he is a winner of the Qatar Masters, which I believe is more relevant this week than it might usually be, and the Englishman also showed last year with his two runs in Scotland that form or no form when the wind blows he can handle himself. I might be throwing money down the drain if his game is still out of sync but at 200/1 I’ll pay to find out.
Tips
Back C.Bezuidenhout to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back B.Wiesberger to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back P.Larrazabal to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with 888sport (1/5 1-8)
Back him here:
Back J.Campillo to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
Back E.Pepperell to win Abu Dhabi Championship (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Betfred (1/5 1-7)
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