Thursday’s action at the Cheltenham Festival is headlined by the Stayers’ Hurdle. You can read a full preview of the showpiece race by clicking here as well as a preview of two of the standout non-handicap races including the Ryanair Chase by clicking here.
There are also three handicaps on the card and it is these type of races that are often so good to us at the big meetings. We’ll be hoping that is the case again on Thursday as we tackle all three of them as we search for more Cheltenham winners.
1.55 Cheltenham: Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
Preview
3 miles for this ultra-competitive handicap where a field of 23 head to post. Despite its competitiveness, none of the last 7 winners have started at more than 14/1 in the betting so it pays to stick to the fancied ones. Imperial Alcazar is favourite having won a qualifier at Warwick last time but that was on heavy ground & he has to overcome an 8lb higher mark. Add to that only 2 of the last 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on their most recent run, he’s worth bypassing. Come On Teddy was 3rd in that Warwick race & may turn the tables with the winner whilst Champagne Platinum in the number 1 hope of McManus’ & finished well at Haydock over 3 miles but, despite being lightly raced, he’s not won in over 2 years & may need slightly easier ground. Spiritofthegames loves this track & should go well too for the Skelton’s.
However, the Irish have won the last 5 runnings of this so it may pay to stick to those from across the water. Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings of this race & his yard, now headed up by Denise Foster, relies on The Bosses Oscar & he’s sure to run a good race with 7lb claimer Jordan Gainford on board. He was 2nd in the Leopardstown qualifier at Christmas but has taken a big hike in weights. Dandy Mag has since run poorly after winning that race but his mark has taken a similar hike, 14lbs higher than for that win.
Betting
Instead, we’ll side with 2 unexposed horses that still look well handicapped. The first of those has crept in at the foot of the handicap for Henry De Bromhead in the form of Milliner. He ran 3 times in 2018, winning a maiden & then finishing 2nd in a Listed novice hurdle. After 3 years off the track, he returned to finish 5th in a handicap on heavy over two and a half miles. Stepped up to this trip on his next run, he was 3rd of 16 in a qualifier over this trip, just 2 lengths behind the winner. Better ground here will suit & off a very attractive mark, he’s likely to improve again & could be the handicap blot. He’s priced up on potential but, watching back those 2 runs since his monster absence, he’s impossible to leave out of any final shortlist.
The 2nd of our bets is Mrs Milner who is similarly unexposed & looks well weighted. She came here for the November meeting & made good headway in a Listed handicap hurdle, only denied in the final strides. That run was off a mark of 130 & she gets in here off just 134. Since then, she’s run twice finishing 4th in that Leopardstown qualifier when racing too handily (the 3 in front came from further back) & then falling early doors at the Dublin Racing Festival. She’s the one to take out of that qualifier over Christmas, a race that has produced a number of recent winners, & if she’s over her fall (she normally jumps well), it’ll be hard to keep her out of the money at a nice each way price.
Tips
PLACED – Back Milliner (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
WON – Back Mrs Milner (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 13.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
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3.40 Cheltenham: Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase
Preview
Another competitive handicap, this time a 23 runner chase over two and a half miles where the favourite is going for the £100K bonus after winning the Morebattle over hurdles at Kelso. All eyes will be on The Shunter & it’s another big ride for young 7lb claimer Jordan Gainford. His claim will largely offset the 8lb rise for finishing 3rd on his penultimate start in a chase. That was the Matheson over 2 miles & was won by one of today’s rivals in A Wave Of The Sea. A 9lb rise may not be beyond him but he’s still a 5 year old and that’s slightly offputting.
Caribbean Bay from the Henderson yard brings some decent form to the table but it would be some performance to win this off a mark of 153, having to shoulder 11st11lbs around here. Mister Whitaker has a great record at this track which includes a win & a place at previous Festivals but he’s exposed & must be vulnerable.
Betting
The one we’re siding with is 6 year old Fils D’Oudairies, a horse making his handicap debut off a workable mark of 145. Since moving to Ireland from France, he’s seen the track 4 times, all in novice chases. He fell on debut before landing the spoils next time up. In 2 subsequent starts, he’s been in esteemed company, finishing 2nd to Envoi Allen & then being outclassed in a Grade 1 novice chase beyond Monkfish. He’s in much calmer waters & this keen going sort will surely be suited by this bigger field. Admittedly, he’s all potential but there’s nothing of Envoi Allen or Monkfish class so he’s taken to land a big handicap for Joseph O’Brien.
Tips
Back Fils D’Oudairies (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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4.50 Cheltenham: Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Preview
On a day of tough handicaps, we end with a maximum field of 24 for the Kim Muir chase over the Gold Cup trip of 3 miles 2 furlongs. Hold The Note & Mount Ida are battling for favouritism, and both have claims. The former was 3rd in a handicap at last year’s Festival off 5lbs higher & put in his best run of the campaign when 2nd last time out whilst the latter has been running with credit in novice chases & could be a different proposition now pitched into handicaps.
Betting
However, we’re keeping it simple & going with just the 1 horse in the last, and that comes in the form of Shantou Flyer. First up, he has a cracking record at Cheltenham with 2 wins & 4 seconds from 9 runs here. He loves the Festival too having finished 2nd in the Ultima in 2018 off a mark of 152 & then 2nd & 3rd in the Foxhunters in the last 2 years when ridden by owner David Maxwell. He’s run twice this season & remains in good nick for an 11 year old finishing 4th & 2nd in a pair of handicap chases at Wincanton. However, today he returns to his favourite track & the drying ground is definitely in his favour; career chase form on good ground reads P121211 with one of those wins coming at 14/1. Admittedly there are some unexposed rivals in opposition but conditions won’t suit any runner more, so he’s a confident each way selection.
Tips
PLACED – Back Shantou Flyer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 BetVictor BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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Great call Kev and the place on Miliner