It is the third day of the Ebor Festival at York on Friday and as we build up to the big race of the meeting on Saturday, there is another decent card on the schedule for us to enjoy and get stuck into on day 3 of the week.
The big race on Friday is the Nunthorpe Stakes for the speedsters. We’ve picked out a bet for that race and there is an interesting handicap which opens the card which we are also getting stuck into as well.
1.50 York
Preview
The opening race of the day is a 0-105 handicap over a mile and a half where there’s a standout favourite in the shape of Wink Of An Eye. He’s won his last 4 progressing from a mark of 70 to now being rated 91 but this is the first time he’s gone this far. He’s done nothing wrong but it remains to be seen whether he’ll win again, upped in class & trip, and reverting to faster ground. My Frankel is dangerous if putting his best foot forward but that’s a risk I’m not prepared to take whilst Dark Jedi could go well back at a track he likes. Johnny Drama won here 2 starts back off 5lb lower but is up in trip & that, coupled with his revised mark, might restrict his chances.
Betting
HMS President is the one I’m siding with. He’s a 4 year old in the form of his life right now, having form figures of 1-5-3-2-2 in his last 5 starts. Since winning under today’s jockey at Windsor off 85, he’s run well off 89 since, most notably when half a length & a head 2nd on his last 2 runs, the only times he’s raced with the cheekpieces on. They are retained today albeit he has an extra 3lbs to contend with. The jockey booking looks significant, as does the quicker ground which I’m sure he’ll prove a better horse on. His first start over this trip was last time out at Ascot & he stayed on in fine style suggesting he might even get further. This is a race that lacks any obvious pace so his prominent racing style will also be a big advantage. We saw that yesterday with Cruyff Turn winning the Clipper Logistics so I’m hoping Buick sets the fractions & holds his rivals at bay. At 7/1, with 6 places on offer, he looks a super each way bet.
Tips
Back HMS President (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 Sky Bet BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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3.35 York
Preview
The big race of the day is the Group 1 Nunthorpe for the champion sprinters & it feels strange to preview without mentioning the now retired Battaash. However, despite his absence, there’s still an exceptional field of 15 going to post with US & French challengers vying for favouritism. Wesley Ward has already said that Golden Pal could be the best horse he has trained so it’s hard to rule him out given he’s won his last 3 from the front, going off at a very fast pace. Suesa, meanwhile, comes here after impressing at Glorious Goodwood last time up, winning the Group 2 Qatar Stakes. The 2 worries are that this ground is likely too fast & the fact she’s drawn on the opposite side of the track. Dragon Symbol heads the British challenge & he’s been brilliant this year, finishing 2nd on his last 4 starts including to Suesa at Goodwood & losing out in the stewards room at Royal Ascot in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup. He deserves to win a big one but an extra furlong might have suited better. A horse that likes York is Winter Power & she’s hard to rule out but whether she can mix it properly in Group 1 company remains to be seen &, for that reason, odds of 13/2 are a bit skinny. Chipotle is the one 2 year old in the race but I can’t believe she’ll be up to winning this. We then get into the big prices, with the field 25/1 bar the front 5, & that’s where our bet will be coming from.
Betting
4 year old filly Liberty Beach is our selection. She’s a winner of 6 of her 15 career starts to date & that includes the Group 2 Temple Stakes early this year, albeit it was a weak renewal & was run on heavy ground. She’s a 5 furlong specialist, has run very well here on her only visit as a 2 year old & is equally at home on all types of surfaces. 2 starts ago at Royal Ascot, she ran well when 6th behind Oxted in the Kings Stand where she wasn’t helped by failing to get a clear run & then disappointed down at Goodwood where her chances went in the scrimmaging around the 2 furlong marker. I think being drawn low could be a big advantage with Golden Pal in 1 so her draw in 5 is a positive. Inside her is Dragon Symbol (already mentioned, Chil Chil who will surely be outpaced over this trip & Bedford Flyer who looks out of his depth. Winter Power is immediately outside of her but then there’s Rohaan from whom the ground will be too fast & rank outsider Ubettabelieveit. She’s a massive price & is worth a small each way investment in a race that looks open beyond the market leaders.
Tips
Back Liberty Beach (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 41.00 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back Liberty Beach (e/w) in the ‘without Suesa & Golden Pal market’ for a 0.75/10 stake at 17.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-3)
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