5.00 Fairyhouse: Irish Grand National
Preview
What a way to start Aintree week with the Irish version of the Grand National, the undoubted highlight of Easter weekend. A big field of 30 runners line up over 3 miles 5 furlongs and it’s worth noting that 18 of the last 20 winners of this race had won over at least 3 miles; applying that filter alone would rule out half the field. Weight is the other important factor to consider with only Our Duke, the winner in 2017, carrying over 10st13lb to win this race since 2000. That would narrow the field down to just 9.
Favourite
12 of the 30-strong field come from the yards of Denise Foster, Willie Mullins & Joseph O’Brien. However, the favourite is Latest Exhibition from the Paul Nolan stable who is the undoubted class act in the field but, with that, comes top weight of 11st10lb. He’ll be pleased there’s no Monkfish, given he’s finished 2nd to him on 3 occasions but this is a very different race & his first run in a handicap with a monster weight isn’t ideal. He’s worth taking on at odds of around 9/2.
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Betting
Sticking with the trends, we’re taking 3 against the field including 2 at big prices, especially given we’re getting paid out 7 places and 5 of the last 10 winners have started at 20/1 or bigger. Our most fancied selection, according to current odds, is the Foster first string in Run Wild Fred. A lightly raced 7 year old who’s yet to win in 6 starts over fences but that sees him get in here off a good mark of 140 & a racing weight of just 10st11lb. Over hurdles, he won a Grade 3 which is top form & this season, he’s finished 2nd on his last 2 starts since stepping up to 3 miles & with blinkers applied. Most recently, he was 2nd in the Thyestes & is now 8lbs better off with the winner, Coko Beach. But for a mistake at the last, he would have probably been closer & this extra distance might suit too. If he gets a clear passage, he’s a confident each-way selection.
The first of our bigger prices is Fitzhenry who will sneak in under the radar given the Paul Nolan attention will all be on Latest Exhibition. A lover of big fields & long distances, his form has a solid look to it. His form over 3+ miles in fields of 15+ runners is excellent with his form reading 3rd of 27 in the Paddy Power in December 2018 off 133, 4th of 16 off 135 (February 2019), 2nd of 23 off 134 in the Troytown (November 2019), 2nd of 27 off 137 (Paddy Power in December 2019), 6th of 23 off 142 in last year’s Kim Muir, 11th of 22 off 141 & 7th of 22 of 140, the last 2 both this season. His mark has dropped back to 137 which is a big plus & he retains plenty of ability as he stayed on best of all in the Leinster National over just over 3 miles. This extra yardage will suit & his price looks a tad on the insulting side.
The only runner coming from outside of Ireland is Jerrysback & this Philip Hobbs raider should not be written off. Lightly raced over fences, he’s got plenty of ability & if he puts it all together, he could go close. 2 years ago, he ran a good race in the NH Chase at Cheltenham over 4 miles where he finished a remote 3rd but was in a chance until the last half mile & since then he’s hardly seen the track. 3rd in a Listed handicap over 3 miles off 143 before returning this term from a year’s absence, staying on really well over an insufficient test of 2 miles 5 furlongs behind Dashel Drasher. He was pulled up last time out but made a bad mistake early & lost a shoe. Down another couple of pounds & with Jody McGarvey on board who had his best ever day in the saddle on Sunday, he’s overpriced in an open looking race.
Tips
PLACED – Back Run Wild Fred (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 11.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back it here:
Back Fitzhenry (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 26.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back Jerrysback (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back them here:
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